Towards a slowdown of the European BEV market?
- 说明
Towards a slowdown of the European BEV market?
- Is the European BEV automotive market slowing down? While the European market (31 countries) of battery electric vehicles (BEV) had increased by 29% in January 2024 compared to January 2023 (120,594 units compared to 93,653), had increased by only 10% in February 2024 compared to as of February 2023 (131,223 units compared to 118,831), the market declined by 11% in March 2024 compared to March 2023 (196,411 units compared to 220,778). These figures should be compared with those of the European market as a whole: +11.5% in January 2024, +10.2% in February 2024 and -2.8% in March 2024.
- Over the 3 months of 2024, the European BEV market remains positive (+3.5%) but the trend has been downward since March and even since the last days of February, mainly attributable to Germany which stopped subsidies for the purchase of BEVs at the end of last year. Germany thus saw its BEV sales fall by 29% in March 2024 compared to March 2023 and by 14% over the 3 months of 2024 compared to the 3 months of 2023. Germany thus lost 13,000 sales of BEV in March 2024 out of 24,000 across Europe and 13,000 sales over the 3 months of 2024 out of 15,000 across Europe. More worryingly, several other countries follow the same trend as Germany in March 2024, such as Italy (-34%), Norway (-48%), Finland (-36%), Sweden (-34%). %), Ireland (-41%), Slovenia (-38%), Greece (-24%), etc…
- The slowdown in the growth of BEV sales in Europe in 2023 is therefore nearly flat in the first quarter of 2024 which can be explained by the end of subsidies in certain countries and by the lack of affordable products.
- A new analysis will be made in July to see if the trend increases or reverses over the 6 months of 2024.
Jaguar prepares its comeback in 2025
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Jaguar prepares its comeback in 2025
- The British Premium brand Jaguar, a subsidiary of the Indian group Tata Motors, within the JLR entity (formerly Jaguar Land Rover), is preparing its comeback in 2025 with a battery electric sedan.
- The thermal engine sedans XE (D-segment) and XF (E-segment), as well as the I-Pace SUV, will be withdrawn from the production program during the summer of 2025. The completely empty Jaguar range will then see the long-awaited heir to the iconic XJ sedan (1968-2019) appear but this time with a pure electric motorisation. For the moment, this model is known under the name GT 4 doors, but this name is probably not the one that will be chosen when the model will be marketed.
- The carmaker's objective is to rebuild a whole range of high-end battery electric sedans and SUVs between 2025 and 2030, able to compete both with German Premium carmakers (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) and with British luxury carmakers (Aston-Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce). The wish of Jaguar management is to position itself in terms of price and standing between these two groups of carmakers.
- As a result of this new direction, the Jaguar XE and E-Pace will not be replaced, as they are considered not luxury enough. Jaguar will no longer produce vehicles in C and D segments, but only in E and F segments. The race for volumes will be definitively abandoned to concentrate on a lower but more profitable production volume.
Mercedes ends production of the Smart Fortwo
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Mercedes ends production of the Smart Fortwo
- Mercedes ended production of the battery electric Smart Fortwo on March 29, 2024, which remained the only model of the Smart brand still produced in Europe, after the end of the Smart Fortwo with a thermal engine and the Smart Forfour with a thermal engine and battery electric.
- The Smart Fortwo(A-segment sedan) which was produced in France (in Hambach) since 1998 was the shortest model in European automobile production (excluding L6/L7 segment cars), with a length of 2.70 m (2.50 m for the first models). Its weight did not exceed 850 kilos in the thermal version and 1,150 kilos in the electric version (750 kilos in the thermal version for the first models). In total, more than 2.2 million Smart Fortwos were produced and sold, but it appears that the model was never profitable for the carmaker due to sales below 100,000 units per year on average, while the targets were set at 150,000 units per year.
- The future of the brand now depends on the battery electric models #1 and #3 produced in China (in Xi'an, in Shaanxi province) by the Geely group in JV with Mercedes. But these models are part of a completely different universe: #1 measures 4.27 m long and weighs 1,800 kilos, while #3 measures 4.40 m long and weighs 1,900 kilos. In reality, #1 is positioned in the B-segment and #3 in the C-segment. There will probably be no more Smarts in the A-segment, for profitability reasons.
- It will be interesting to know whether customers of these models will continue to use this type of cars or towards which models they will move in the future, given that the A-segment has been shrinking for several years, following the withdrawal of most models.
Tesla is experiencing its first difficulties
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Tesla is experiencing its first difficulties
- The world's leading carmaker of battery electric vehicles, Tesla, is experiencing its first difficulties, after several years of strong and uninterrupted growth. The Californian carmaker produced 1.85 million electric vehicles in 2023, compared to 1.37 million in 2022, 930 000 in 2021 and 500 000 in 2020.
- The start of 2024 marks a clear slowdown in production, with 401,000 vehicles produced in the first quarter compared to 408,000 in the first quarter of 2023. The most noticeable month, is March 2024 (97,000 units) down by 58,000 units. compared to March 2023, which is not entirely attributable to the one week pause of production in Berlin. More generally, Tesla saw its global deliveries drop by 8.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023. As a result, falling sales and stable production led to an increase in inventories which went from 21 days to 37 days(i.e. 160,000 cars). The carmaker could lay off 10% of its workforce, or 14,000 people. The question is whether this difficulty is specific to Tesla or whether it is a general trend e of the electric vehicle market.
- Tesla has difficulties to renew and expand its range. Model S is 12 years old (with an in-depth facelift in 2021), Model X is 9 years old (also deeply facelifted in 2021), Model 3 is 7 years old, and Model Y is 4 years old. The launch of the Model 2 was postponed to a later date and the incessant price changes eventually tired customers, prospects and fleet managers (like Hertz).
- Regarding the BEV market, it seems to be slowing down since February 2024, especially in countries that have ended subsidies for the purchase of BEVs such as Germany. Tesla is suffering from this slowdown, like other BEV carmakers.
Nissan wants to sell 4.5 million vehicles in 2026/2027 compared to 3.5 million in 2023/2024
- 说明
Nissan wants to sell 4.5 million vehicles in 2026/2027 compared to 3.5 million in 2023/2024
- Nissan, which is separated from Renault last year (after having been for around twenty years in the Renault-Nissan group), is modifying its strategy in place for several years, meaning reducing volumes and increase profits, a strategy which led the carmaker to reduce its production capacities by 20%, going from 7 million to 5.6 million per year.
- The problem is that Nissan only produced 4 million vehicles in 2021 and even fewer the following two years: 3.2 million vehicles in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. In the Japanese financial year 2023/2024 (from March to March), Nissan however announces a volume of 3.5 million vehicles produced.
- Today, the carmaker wants to put an end to the reduction of its volumes and is counting on a revival of its sales, announcing an objective of selling 4.5 million vehicles in the 2026/2027 financial year.
- With Nissan sales declining both in China and North America (its two major global markets), it will be very difficult to reverse the trend of the last three years, especially as the carmaker wants to both increase its volumes and its margins. In China, its factories are currently operating at only 50% of their capacity. With the end of its partnership with Renault, Nissan's objective will be all the more difficult to achieve. The only hope is that its new partnership with Honda in the battery electric vehicles market could have a positive impact on Nissan's sales, but this agreement will be successful if it benefits both to Nissan and Honda, which is not guaranteed in advance.