Tesla aims to produce 50,000 electric trucks per year
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Tesla aims to produce 50,000 electric trucks per year
- Tesla has started production of its fully electric truck called Semi at its Texas plant in Austin. It is the first time a carmaker has mass-produced a truck with such an engine. The downside to a fully electric truck is that you need a large-capacity battery to drive long distances with heavy loads without having to stop at a charging station. However, it is easier to install heavy batteries in a truck whose weight is already high and, more importantly, that can have large spaces to hold those batteries.
- For this reason, Tesla believes in the development of the battery electric truck market, even if other carmakers choose the hydrogen-powered fuel cell truck solution.
- Tesla argues that the truck carmakers that have ventured into the fully electric experiment have started from a diesel-powered truck and converted it to electric, while the Tesla truck is originally designed as an electric truck from the start. The stated range is 800 kilometers, compared to 400 kilometers for existing trucks that have been converted to electric drive.
- For Tesla, the advantage of an electric truck is its quietness, no pollution when driving the vehicle and the comfort. The carmaker expects 50,000 sales of its truck in 2024, which would represent 1.25% of global truck sales, as global production of trucks (vehicles over 3.5 tons) reaches a volume of about 4 million units each year, according to OICA (International Organization of Automobile carmakers).
What could be the share of BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030 and 2035 in the world?
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What could be the share of BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030 and 2035 in the world?
- In terms of global sales forecasts for BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030, and 2035, the big questions are whether electrification will progress to the point where these vehicles hold an absolute majority share of their respective markets, as suggested by the governments of market-ready countries, and whether the share of BEVs and PHEVs sales will be equal in China, Europe, India, Japan, and the US.
- Inovev projects a global BEVs and PHEVs sales share of 33% in 2030 and 60% in 2035 (up from 17% in 2022).
- For 2022, the global market level will be close to 12 million BEVs and PHEVs, according to Inovev. China is expected to have 7 million vehicles, the U.S. 1 million, Europe 2.5 million, Japan 400 000, India 100 000, and the remaining regions 800 000.
- In 2025, Inovev forecasts a global market of 18 million BEVs and PHEVs, including 10 million vehicles in China, 2 million in the U.S., 4.5 million in Europe, 700 000 in India, and 800 000 in Japan. That leaves 1 million in the remaining regions.
- In 2030, Inovev forecasts a global market of 26 million BEVs and PHEVs , including 15 million vehicles in China, 4,5 million in the U.S., 7 million in Europe, 1.2 million in India, and 1.3 million in Japan. That leaves 1 million in the remaining regions.
- For 2035, Inovev projects a global market of 48 million BEVs and PHEVs , including 25 million vehicles in China, 9 million in the U.S., 10 million in Europe, 2 million in India, and 2 million in Japan. Rest 2 million in the other regions.
- These scenarios take into account that a large part of the customers accept the public decisions to electrife vehicles in Europe and US markets, but for instance, the targets of the European Commission are still not likely to be reached by 2035, but rather by 2040.
Land Rover Defender becomes the brand's best-selling model
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Land Rover Defender becomes the brand's best-selling model
- The new generation Land Rover Defender was launched in 2019. Larger than its predecessor (whose origins date back to 1948), the new Defender is no longer made at the British site in Solihull (where the Range Rover, Range Sport and Range Velar remain produced), but at the Slovakian site in Nitra where the Discovery is also produced.
- While the old Defender was the least sold model of the Land Rover brand since the introduction of the Range Rover in 1970, the new Defender managed to become the best-selling model of the brand within three years. However, without much distance, since its production will reach 60,000 units by 2022, while the other models of the brand this year range between 20,000 and 40,000 units, distributed as follows: 40,000 units of Range Evoque, 38,000 of Range Rover, 36,000 of Range Rover Sport, 30,000 of Range Velar and 20,000 of Discovery Sport. Only the Discovery is left behind with 5,000 units produced in 2022.
- Looking at the production volumes of Land Rover models between 2019 and 2022, apart from Defender, which has managed to win back some of its customers, we find that all models have seen a decline in sales: Discovery Sport (-76,000 units), Range Sport (-40,000 units), Range Evoque (-32,000 units) and Discovery (-30,000 units).
- Overall, Land Rover production has lost 147,000 units between 2019 and 2022, despite the introduction of the new Defender. This represents a 39% drop, which remind the sales decline of the Jaguar brand (which, like Land Rover, is part of the Tata Motors Group). As with Jaguar, Land Rover's transition to electric cars will be a difficult one, as both brands are in the upper price range. Prices could become extremely high. Currently, a Defender is sold from 70,000 to 140,000 euros depending on the version, to which a malus (CO2 tax) is added in many European countries (e.g. 40,000 euros in France).
What could the passenger car market be in 2025, 2030, and 2035?
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What could the passenger car market be in 2025, 2030, and 2035?
- What will the global market levels be in 2025, 2030 and 2035? No one knows what the economy will look like in that time and whether the various governments' targets for vehicle electrification will be met. However, Inovev has established different scenarios to estimate the level of passenger car sales in the world during this period, focusing on five major markets: Europe, USA, China, India and Japan, with a reference scenario presented here below.
- For 2022, the level of the global car market will be around 70 million units, according to Inovev. China is expected to have 26.5 million vehicles, the U.S. 13.5 million, Europe 11.5 million, Japan 4.2 million and India 4 million.
- In 2025, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 76 million vehicles, including 28.5 million vehicles in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 12.5 million in Europe, 5 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Chinese market (+2 Million vs. 2022), the Indian market (+1 Million vs. 2022) and the growing markets in Asia and South America.
- In 2030, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 79 million vehicles, including 30 million in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 12.5 million in Europe, 6 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Chinese market, the Indian market and the growing markets in Asia and South America.
- In 2035, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 80 million vehicles, including 30 million in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 11 million in Europe, 7 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Indian market and the immature markets in Asia and South America.
New Honda Accord aims to take over sedan customers of Ford and Chevrolet in the U.S market
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New Honda Accord aims to take over sedan customers of Ford and Chevrolet in the U.S market
- The Chevrolet Malibu and Ford Fusion midsize sedans have traditionally been among the top 10 in the U.S. Their design has always been consensus-driven to appeal the mass market, unlike other American car brands whose designs have been more sophisticated or even aggressive. But the Chevrolet and Ford sedans eventually disappeared before the Chevrolet Malibu went back into production in November 2021.
- Their Japanese counterparts, the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord, benefited only slightly from the decline of the Chevrolet and Ford sedans. The new Honda Accord, unveiled this month, has a sleek, consensual design that could have come from Chevrolet or Ford. The previous Honda Accord was far less consensus-oriented.
- So we might think that Honda wants to take back Chevrolet and Ford customers, but that goal will be hard to achieve as the share of sedans in the U.S. market continues to decline and SUVs continue to grow. By 2022, SUVs will account for 55% of the U.S. market, while sedans will account for only 20%. And these sedans will mainly come from Japan, Korea and Germany.
- In 2022, the two best-selling sedans in the U.S. market are the Toyota Camry (300,000 sales) and the Honda Accord (200,000 sales). The latter is counting on its new generation to come closer to the Camry. Inovev forecasts 250,000 sales of the new Accord.