The US market is down 7.8% in 2022 compared to 2021
- 说明
The US market is down 7.8% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The US automotive market (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) fell to 13.9 million vehicles in 2022, compared to 15.1 million in 2021, which represents a decrease of 7.8% compared to 2021 and 18.5 % compared to 2019. The figures for 2020, 2021 and 2022 which hover between 14 and 15 million units per year remain very far from the figures for 2015 to 2019 which hovered around 17 to 17.5 million units per year.
- Remember that at the pic of the 2008-2009 crisis, the US market had fallen to nearly 10 million units, a volume that we are still far from. According to Inovev, the US market will overtake the European PC+LUV market in 2022, as the latter should not exceed 13 million units, compared to 13.7 million in 2021.
- Of all US registrations in 2022, SUVs represented 7.36 million units (53% of the market), sedans and coupes 2.65 million units (19% of the market), pick-ups 2.73 million units (20% of the market). Sedans and coupés continue to lose market share to SUVs and pick-ups.
- In 2022, the GM group (2,258,283 sales) regained first place on the US market from Toyota (2,108,457 sales), which had overtaken it in 2021. The Ford group (1,850,925 sales) remains third, ahead of the Stellantis group (1,553,895 sales). The Hyundai-Kia (1,474,224 sales), Honda (983,507 sales) and Renault-Nissan (815,160 sales) groups follow. Tesla (522,444 sales) is the tenth largest carmaker on the US market in 2022, almost tied with the Volkswagen group and Subaru.
The Swedish market is down 4.3% in 2022 compared to 2021
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The Swedish market is down 4.3% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The Swedish PC market (passenger cars) remained at a very low level in 2022 compared to 2021 (-4.3%) and especially compared to 2019 (-20%). In total, Sweden registered 288,004 passenger cars last year, up from 322,831 in 2021.
- By group, Volkswagen dominates the market with 67,689 units, ahead of Volvo (45,883 units), Hyundai-Kia (35,715 units) and Toyota (24,505 units).
- The ranking by brand shows that Volvo remains the market leader with 45,883 units, ahead of Volkswagen (33,696 units), Kia (29,847 units), Toyota (23,279 units), BMW (16,531 units), Mercedes (15,754 units) and Audi (13,874 units).
- Top-selling models were Volvo XC40 (14,252 units), Volvo XC60 (12,009 units), Kia Niro (8,909 units), Volkswagen ID4 (8,874 units), Volvo S60/V60 (8 545 units) and the Kia Ceed/Xceed (8,056 units). Note that the Tesla Model Y is just behind with 6,550 units, produced in Germany of course.
China’s Automobile Market Forecast for 2023
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China’s Automobile Market Forecast for 2023
- China's automobile sales in the first 11 months of 2022 increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 24,3 million units. Full-year sales are expected to rise by 2.4% to 26.91 million units. In the first half of 2022, the new coronavirus infection spread again in some areas of China, so the “zero corona” policy with strict restrictions on movement was thoroughly enforced, resulting in a decline in automobile production and sales. Since June 2022, the automobile market has returned to a growth trajectory due to the Chinese government's reduction measures for passenger vehicle purchase tax and the automobile purchase support measures of some local governments.
- The automotive market in 2023 is expected to grow slightly compared to 2022. There is a high possibility that the pandemic will come to an end on a global scale, so expectations for economic recovery are increasing. In China, from December 2022, the “zero corona” policy was fully relaxed. As a result, business is expected to pick up, and expectations for an economic recovery in 2023 are increasing.
- In the passenger vehicle market, the sales of medium- and large-sized passenger cars are expected to continue growing steadily, supported by consumption by wealthy people in urban areas. The large MPV market is also expected to continue expanding driven by rising demand for courtesy vehicles for businesses and by families. The SUV market, the largest segment in China, is likely to grow for the first time in four years since 2020. The A and B segments are forecast to continue to grow, pushed up by compact BEVs. The commercial vehicle market in 2023 is expected to turn growth after two years decline in 2021 and 2022.
Indian’s Automobile Market Forecast for 2023
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Indian’s Automobile Market Forecast for 2023
- In 2022, the Indian automobile market is expected to reach a record high of 4.6 million units. The impact of production restrictions due to the supply disruption of semiconductors has been eased, and backorders are being processed at an accelerated pace.
- On the other hand, due to high fuel costs and other factors, the global trend of inflation has intensified since the beginning of 2022. In India, too, the consumer price index continues to rise and the policy interest rate continues to expand, and the depreciation of the national currency against the US dollar has also contributed to negative factors for the economy.
- It is expected that automobile sales will be affected by the increase in auto loan interest rates due to the policy interest rate hike in the coming months. Currency depreciation and inflation are also expected to have a negative impact on vehicle purchasing intentions. Furthermore, a possible global recession in 2023 may cause the Indian economy to cool down which may cause the automobile market to shrink significantly.
- Therefore, we can forecast a decrease of the Indian market in 2023 to a volume of 4.1 million units, meaning a decline of nearly 11% of sales.
China’s NEV Market Forecast for 2023
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China’s NEV Market Forecast for 2023
- The sales volume NEVs (New Energy Vehicles: BEV, PHEV and FCEV) in China is expected to exceed 6.8 million units in 2022, nearly doubling from the previous year. Since 2022 was the final year of the NEV subsidy policy, it is forecast that last-minute demand likely boosted NEV sales. In addition, NEV sales in 2023 is expected to increase by 33% from 2022 to 9.1 million units.
- In recent years, in addition to the extension of cruising range by the performance improvement of NEVs, the installation of smart functions such as voice recognition as well as connected and driving support functions is expanding. For consumers, product development is progressing that makes them want to purchase NEV products even without subsidies. The NEV market is changing from policy-driven to market-driven, so it is believed that further expansion of NEV sales can be expected.
- However, the NEV subsidy policy will be abolished in 2023, and the cost of raw materials such as in-vehicle batteries is expected to rise. So there are concerns that this could lead to a decline in consumer willingness to buy.
- NEV commercial vehicles are overwhelmingly BEVs. In addition to the switchover to BEV buses for fixed-route service in various parts of China, the use of NEV trucks is also expanding in limited areas such as wharves, industrial parks and construction sites. In addition, the Chinese government is promoting the expansion of the use of FCEV commercial vehicles, so the market size of FCEV commercial vehicles is expected to expand gradually in the future.