Tesla's cyclical sales in Europe
- In 2019, Tesla produced 364,236 battery electric cars (BEVs), of which 49% destined for the United States (for 178,950 sales), 31% for Europe (for 111,714 sales) and 10% to China ( 35,531 units). These three markets accounted for 90% of Tesla's sales last year.
- In the first seven months of 2020, Tesla produced 215,893 BEVs, of which 45% destined for the United States (97,500 units), 19% destined for China (40,698 units) and 18% destined for Europe (38,285 units). The share of the three big markets now represents only 82% of Tesla's sales. This may mean Tesla is attacking new markets or restocking.
- But while the overall production volume of the Tesla brand evolves in a fairly standard way for an automobile carmaker (with seasonality), and while sales in the United States follow this same trend, sales in Europe present a atypical evolution similar to a sinusoidal movement, meaning with a strong diffusion that takes place every three months (March 2019, June 2019, September 2019, December 2019, March 2020 and June 2020) followed by a very weak registrations over the next two months.
- This cyclical sales phenomenon can be explained by Tesla's own production strategy in its American plant (Freemont), which consists of first producing vehicles intended for export in the first half of each quarter and then vehicles intended for the local American market. This policy called "Wave" aims to limit vehicle stocks on the production site. Taking into account the logistical time required to get vehicles to destination markets, we therefore find this cyclical phenomenon in registrations. The Chinese market is less impacted by this cycle, because Tesla has started to produce the Model 3 there in April 2020.
- This strategy will probably continue in Europe until 2023, provisional year for the opening of the future Tesla plant in Germany, where the Models 3 and Y will be produced. Cyclical sales should therefore continue for the Model S and X but their low volumes does not affect the European (or Chinese) market.
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