What evolution for the Russian automotive market and production?
- According to the Russian organizations themselves, the car market and production are expected to fall by more than 50% over the whole of 2022, due to the war in Ukraine which has caused both a drop in customers demand, but also and above all because of the cessation of production at certain locally established factories (such as Renault, BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen) and the cessation of most imports (from Europe). Over the first five months of 2022, the market fell by 52% and production by 56%.
- What can happen when the war will be over? Will economic sanctions continue to be applied? Will carmakers who quit Russia in the first half of 2022 return? And in this case, will the Russian government agree to see them resume their activity in Russia? It is difficult to answer these questions. The scenario favoring a return to the pre-war situation in Ukraine seems unlikely. The war in Ukraine will inevitably leave its mark.
- The most likely scenarios favor the Russians taking over the factories left vacant and/or the Russians encouraging the massive arrival of Chinese carmakers in the factories left vacant. This scenario seems plausible as the Chinese carmakers who represented 5% of the Russian market in 2021 represent nearly 10% over the first five months of 2022. This share seems logically set to increase in the coming months, due to the disappearance of European carmakers from the Russian market over the period. However, this would be a strong dependence on China for Russia, a dependence that the Russian government is not sure to accept.
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