Inovev forecasts 50,000 units of the new Volvo EX60 by 2030
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Inovev forecasts 50,000 units of the new Volvo EX60 by 2030
- Swedish carmaker Volvo, under Chinese ownership (Geely) since 2010, unveiled its new battery electric EX60 SUV (D segment) shortly after announcing its 2025 results. The new EX60 completes the brand's lineup of battery electric SUVs, which currently includes the EX30 (B segment), EX40 (C segment), and EX90 (E segment). It will be produced at the Torslanda plant in Gothenburg, Sweden, alongside the gasoline and hybrid versions of the Volvo XC60, unlike the EX30 and EX40, which are produced in Belgium, and the EX90, which is produced in the United States.
- It's worth noting that the XC60, both gasoline and hybrid versions, will continue to be sold in its current form, much like the current XC90, which coexists with the more modernly designed EX90. Similarly, the EX60's design is more modern than the XC60's, and it's 10 cm longer (4.80 m) and 2 cm lower (1.63 m). This dual-model strategy is also employed by BMW (for the X3) and Mercedes (for the GLC). The BMW iX3 and Mercedes GLC EQ are, in fact, the Volvo EX60's direct competitors, along with the Audi Q6 e- tron (although Audi uses specific model numbers for its electric versions).
- The Volvo EX60 is based on the carmaker's new SPA3 platform, specifically designed for battery electric models. This platform uses "cell -to-body" design, which allows the batteries to be integrated directly into the vehicle's structure, resulting in weight and rigidity savings. The 374 hp electric motor is paired with an 80 kWh NMC battery (range: 620 km). A dual-motor version with all-wheel drive, delivering either 510 hp or 680 hp , is paired with a 91 kWh NMC battery (range: 810 km). Inovev forecasts a production volume of 30,000 units in Sweden in 2027, 35,000 in 2028, 40,000 in 2029, and 50,000 in 2030.
Tesla's global sales declined by 8.6% by 2025
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Tesla's global sales declined by 8.6% by 2025
- The American electric car carmaker Tesla had a very poor year in 2025, with global sales falling by 8.6% compared to 2024, marking the company's second consecutive year of declining sales. According to Inovev's calculations, Tesla sold 1.636 million electric cars in 2025, compared to 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.81 million in 2023. The figures are even more catastrophic for the Cybertruck pickup truck, which the carmaker projected would sell 250,000 units per year, but only reached 18,000 sales last year, compared to 32,000 in 2024. This represents a drop of nearly 44%, and significantly less than 10% of the initial sales forecast.
- Due to the postponement of the C-segment SUV launch to 2030 and the discontinuation of the Model S and X in 2026, Tesla sales are expected to continue declining until then, perhaps reaching 1.4 million units in 2029. In the meantime, Tesla will have to try to attract customers with its already aging Model 3 and Model Y. This appears to be a delicate operation, especially given the aggressive tactics of Chinese carmakers.
- Looking ahead to 2025, Tesla sales in Europe dropped by around 28%. Facing the rise of Chinese electric vehicle carmakers, Tesla has little chance of recovering in Europe (235,000 sales in 2025 compared to 325,000 in 2024). China (-7% to 735,000 units) and the USA (-5% to 573,000 units) are also experiencing declines, and only emerging markets like South Korea and Turkey are keeping the carmaker afloat. But even there, competition is emerging, and the situation could reverse in the medium term.
The Russian passenger car market has declined by 15.7% by 2025
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The Russian passenger car market has declined by 15.7% by 2025
- The Russian passenger car (PC) market contracted by 15.7% in 2025, to 1,306,299 units compared to 1,550,249 in 2024. This decline is likely a consequence of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which is prompting Russia (even though it is not yet operating under a full-blown war economy) to prioritize military needs over civilian requirements. The Russian light utility vehicle (LUV) market also contracted, declining by 23.8%, to 104,980 units compared to 137,734 in 2024, for the same reasons as the passenger car market.
- The best-selling passenger car brand in Russia in 2025 was Lada, part of the AvtoVAZ group (330,357 units; -24.8%), although its sales declined more sharply than the overall market, indicating that some of its customers switched to Chinese brands. Its market share fell from 28% in 2024 to 25% in 2025.
- The remaining 75% is largely monopolized by Chinese brands, which hold 60% of the Russian market in 2025 (786,737 units). European, Japanese, American, and Korean brands account for 15% of sales, but it is likely that a significant portion of these sales also originate from China, as these brands officially refused to sell their cars in Russia after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. The hypothesis that many European, Japanese, American, and Korean models are imported through Chinese dealerships therefore remains highly probable (evidence of this is that Volkswagen Group's Jetta models are sold in Russia, even though this brand only produces its models in China).
The US market for passenger cars and pickup trucks grew by 1.7% in 2025
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The US market for passenger cars and pickup trucks grew by 1.7% in 2025
- The US passenger car market (sedans, coupes, SUVs and minivans) including pickup trucks (which represent 20% of the total market) increased by 1.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, to 16,221,873 units compared to 15,954,040.
- The GM group remains the leader in the US market, with a market share of 18% in 2025, up one point compared to 2024. The Toyota group remains second, with a market share of 16%, up one point compared to 2024. The Japanese carmaker, the world's leading carmaker, is ahead of Ford (13%) and Hyundai-Kia (11%), whose market share gained half a point. The market share of the other carmakers in the Top 10 all declined.
- This is particularly true for Stellantis, which has fallen from 9% to 8% of the US market due to a drop in sales last year, a decline that has been consistent since 2018—well before Stellantis was created in 2021, formalizing the merger of FCA and PSA. All the group's brands (Chrysler, Dodge , Ram, Jeep) are declining, but Dodge has fallen the most (-28%) with the premature discontinuation of the Charger sedan and Challenger coupe, replaced by an battery electric Charger that failed to gain traction. Once the third-largest carmaker in the United States, the former Chrysler group has gradually fallen to sixth place, overtaken first by Toyota, then by Hyundai-Kia, and finally by Honda.
- Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Volkswagen, and Tesla each lose half a percentage point of market share in 2025 compared to 2024. Honda has a 9% market share, Nissan 6%, Subaru 4%, Volkswagen 4%, and Tesla 3%. BMW and Mercedes follow.
Premium: German carmakers still lead, but new entrants are on the rise
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Premium: German carmakers still lead, but new entrants are on the rise
- BMW remains the world's leading premium carmaker in 2025. The brand sold 2.17 million vehicles last year, a 1.4% decrease compared to 2024, due to a sharp drop in sales in China (-14.2%), where it faces stiff competition from new Chinese premium brands. Of the 536,163 vehicles sold in China, BMW imported 21,439 units, with the remainder produced domestically.
- Mercedes remains the second largest premium carmaker in 2025. The brand delivered 1.81 million vehicles (excluding commercial vehicles), representing a decrease of 9.6% compared to 2024. This decline is explained by a drop in its sales in China (-19.8%) where the brand sold 472,799 vehicles, of which 33,988 were imported, the rest being produced in China.
- Audi remains the third largest premium carmaker in 2025. Audi delivered 1.62 million vehicles last year (-2.9% compared to 2024) including 617,514 in China (33,726 imported, the rest being produced in China), representing a decrease of 2.7% compared to 2024.
- By comparison, Lexus sold 882,000 vehicles in 2025 and Volvo 710,000 vehicles. Next come the Chinese premium brands and Porsche, which sold fewer than 300,000 cars in 2025.
- The three major German premium brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) are facing increasing competition in China from Chinese premium brands that didn't even exist ten years ago. Hongqi and Xiaomi are already approaching 500,000 sales each by 2025 – having thus overtaken the American brand Cadillac – and other Chinese brands are developing rapidly in this category, four of them having overtaken the American brand Lincoln last year.
- The arrival of these Chinese premium brands in Europe could boost their sales, which will further weaken the position of traditional premium brands, such as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche and Land Rover.
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