Share of Chinese and foreign car sales in China
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Share of Chinese and foreign car sales in China
- In order to analyze the decline in influence of European carmakers in car production in China, Inovev counted the number of passenger cars produced in China by origin from 2005 to 2025. A graph was constructed from the production figures of cars produced in China, according to the origin of the brands: 1/ China 2/ Europe 3/ Other regions of the world.
- European car production in China peaked in 2017-2018, reaching approximately 5.5 million units per year, following uninterrupted growth since 2005. Since then, this volume has steadily declined. By 2025, production is projected to fall below 4 million units, while the overall production volume across all nationalities is expected to increase from 25 million to 30 million units between 2017 and 2025. Concurrently, Chinese carmakers' production volume has surged from 10 million to over 20 million units.
- The production volume of American, Japanese and Korean brands also experienced a production peak in 2017-2018, as with European brands, with a volume of 8.5 million units per year, then this volume declined sharply and continuously, falling below 5.5 million units in 2025.
- The decline of foreign carmakers did not happen at the same time. Stellantis began to decline from 2015, then it was the turn of Ford and Hyundai-Kia from 2017, then GM from 2018, then Volkswagen from 2019, then Honda from 2020 and Nissan from 2021, the last to fall being BMW and Mercedes.
Inovev forecasts 55,000 sales of the Dacia Spring II by 2030
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Inovev forecasts 55,000 sales of the Dacia Spring II by 2030
- The all-electric Dacia Spring will be completely redesigned from the 2026 Paris Motor Show. Instead of the small A-segment model, 3.73 m long, derived from the Indian Renault Kwid and manufactured in China, then re-exported to Europe, the brand will present a much more modern model, about ten centimeters longer, derived from the very recent electric Renault Twingo and produced this time in Europe, more precisely in Slovenia, at the Renault factory in Novo Mesto where the Renault Twingo is produced and where a Nissan derivative of the Twingo will also be produced, probably next year.
- The new Dacia Spring , which has its own design and personality, will be a little cheaper than the Renault Twingo , since Dacia's policy is to offer cars that are cheaper than Renaults in the same category.
- Its price will logically be lower than the minimum €19,490 charged by its Renault cousin. It should be set at €17,900, which is €1,000 more than the previous Dacia Spring but €1,590 less than the Twingo. Furthermore, the new Spring will benefit from the government incentive of €3,620 as a model produced in Europe.
- The new Dacia Spring is expected to inherit the Twingo's engine developing 82 hp (60 kW), as well as its 27.5 kWh battery capable of allowing it to travel approximately 250 km according to the WLTP cycle.
- The previous Dacia Spring sold just over 200,000 units in total between 2019 and 2026, and the new generation will need to do better. Inovev estimates sales of the new Spring at 250,000 units between 2026 and 2031.
Chinese carmakers are beginning to establish a lasting presence in Europe
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Chinese carmakers are beginning to establish a lasting presence in Europe
- The European automotive landscape is undergoing a historic transformation. Faced with regulatory pressures and customs barriers, Chinese carmakers are shifting from an export-oriented strategy to one of local industrialization . Data analysis reveals a planned two-pronged offensive, structured around opportunistic partnerships and the rise of new geographic hubs.
- Chinese expansion is reshaping the industrial map of Europe around two distinct poles:
• The flexibility of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain): Spain stands out as the priority host country ( Chery in Barcelona, SAIC/MG in La Coruña, Leapmotor in Zaragoza/ Villaverde , Geely in Valencia).
• The competitiveness of Central Europe (Hungary, Slovakia): A preferred choice for Greenfield projects (building from scratch). BYD (Hungary) and Geely/ Polestar (Slovakia) are looking for optimized production costs and immediate proximity to Western European markets (Germany, France, United Kingdom).
- Two strategic visions are clashing in the quest to conquer the European market :
• The partnership model (Asset-Light): Favored by Leapmotor , Dongfeng , Chery and Geely (in Valencia). By setting up in the factories of established carmakers ( Stellantis , Ford, Nissan), these brands avoid heavy investments, accelerate their market launch schedule (2024–2027) and skillfully circumvent customs barriers.
• The industrial sovereignty model: Championed by giants BYD and SAIC/MG. They are investing in exclusive, high-capacity factories (aiming for 240,000 to 300,000 units/year each in the long term). This approach requires massive capital but guarantees total control of the value chain in the long term.
- The most striking dynamic lies in the exploitation of the structural weaknesses of European industry:
• Stellantis' agreements in Rennes and Zaragoza with Chinese carmakers explicitly aim to fill their own overcapacity in production.
• Acquisition of distressed assets: BYD's interest in taking over existing sites and Xpeng 's desire to establish itself in underutilized or threatened-with-closure Volkswagen factories in Germany are transforming the European industrial crisis into a land and technology windfall for China, itself partly responsible for this European industrial crisis (conquest of market share from European carmakers by Chinese carmakers both in China and in Europe).
- By 2028, the combined production capacity of the three major Chinese projects with figures ( BYD, MG, Leapmotor ) will approach... 740,000 vehicles per year . The European automotive industry is no longer just facing commercial competition, but deep and irreversible integration. of the Chinese ecosystem within its own borders.
Has Brexit had an impact on the British market?
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Has Brexit had an impact on the British market?
Britain's vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) took place on June 23, 2016, and its exit from the European Union was officially decreed on January 31, 2020.
1. The Brexit vote, however, had consequences for the evolution of the British car market as early as 2017. It suddenly declined that year, in stark contrast to the four other major European markets (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), and this decline continued in 2018, 2019, and 2020. In fact, the British car market, whose passenger car registration volume had previously been between that of Germany and France, moved closer to that of France from 2017 onwards. It remained at the same level as France between 2019 and 2023, and began to recover from 2024, while remaining even closer to that of France than to that of Germany. In conclusion, the British market was never able to recover the volume lost after 2016. This is one of the consequences of Brexit.
2. In terms of production, Brexit has undoubtedly been one of the causes of the decline in British car production , which lost more than half of its output between 2015 and 2025. In particular, Honda closed its UK plant in Swindon, Stellantis closed its UK plant in Luton, and Jaguar suffered a real decline between 2020 and 2025, with its production volume collapsing from 100,000 vehicles in 2015 to 10,000 in 2025. Nissan, the largest British producer, saw its production volume fall from 475,000 units in 2015 to 275,000 in 2025. Toyota saw its production fall from 190,000 to 90,000 between 2015 and 2025.
Exports from China to Europe have surpassed exports from Europe to China
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Exports from China to Europe have surpassed exports from Europe to China
- Chinese car exports to the European Union have surpassed European car exports to China. This trend is evident in 2025 values, as EU car exports to China fell by 34% to €16 billion, compared to €24.2 billion in 2024, while Chinese car exports to the EU rose by 8% to €22 billion, up from €20.4 billion. The EU therefore recorded a deficit of €6 billion in 2025, compared to a surplus of €3.8 billion in 2024 (source: ACEA).
- But in fact, in terms of volume, Chinese car imports to the European Union surpassed European car exports to China as early as 2024 , reaching 455,000 units that year (compared to 350,000 in 2023), while the EU exported only 300,000 to China. By 2025, China had exported 620,000 cars to the EU.
- This distortion between value and volume is due to the fact that cars exported from China to the EU represent less in value than cars exported from the EU to China at the same volume, given that Chinese cars exported to Europe are mid-range and mid-priced while cars exported from the EU to China (often German) are high-end and high-priced (Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati).
- It should be noted that of the 620,000 cars exported from China to the EU in 2025, 116,000 will be European or American brands (compared to 182,000 in 2024) and 504,000 will be Chinese brands (compared to 273,000 in 2024). The number of European or American cars exported from China to the EU is trending downward.
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