The European car market will grow by approximately 2% in 2025
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The European car market will grow by approximately 2% in 2025
- The European passenger car market (30 countries: EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) is expected to grow by around 2% in 2025 compared to 202, with its growth rate accelerating since last summer. The European market should therefore exceed 13 million cars sold for the first time since 2019, reaching approximately 13.1 to 13.2 million units.
- However, the European passenger car market will still not have recovered its record levels of more than 15 million units per year recorded between 2016 and 2019 by 2025. The 2025 level is closer to the volumes reached in 2014, the 2015 volume already being more than 14 million units.
- With the sharp rise in vehicle prices observed over the past three years and the laborious energy transition between internal combustion and electric vehicles , the levels of 2016-2019 will be difficult to reach again by 2030.
- The Volkswagen Group will remain the market leader (27%), up 5% compared to 2024, ahead of the Stellantis Group (15%), down 5%, and the Renault Group (10%), up 7%. They are followed by the Hyundai-Kia Group (8%), down 3%, the BMW Group (7%), up 6%, the Toyota Group (7%), down 7%, the Mercedes Group (5%), down 2%, and the Ford Group (3%), down 1%. Chinese brands will occupy 8% of the European market by the end of December.
The US automotive market will grow by approximately 2% in 2025
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The US automotive market will grow by approximately 2% in 2025
- The US automotive market (passenger cars + light commercial vehicles including pickup trucks) is projected to grow in 2025 compared to 2024, but its growth rate has been slowing month by month since last summer: +4.2% at the end of August, +3.9% at the end of September, +3.3% at the end of October, and +2.4% at the end of November. At this rate, the US automotive market's growth is expected to be limited to approximately +2% for the entire year.
- The European car market (30 countries = EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) is expected to see similar growth throughout 2025, but this is purely coincidental. The Chinese car market (the world's largest) will experience significantly stronger growth in 2025, around 12%.
- Regarding the US car market, it is expected to settle at 16.3 million units in 2025, which is less than during the years 2014-2019, where annual registrations were between 16.5 and 17.5 million units.
- The GM group will remain the market leader (17%), up 7% compared to 2024, ahead of the Toyota group (15%), up 8%, and the Ford group (13%), up 5%. Next come the Hyundai-Kia group (11%), up 8%, the Honda group (9%), up 2%, and the Stellantis group (8%), down 5%, with a 30% drop in Dodge sales weighing heavily on Stellantis' results. Tesla (4%), down 4%, performs worse than the Nissan group (6%) or Subaru (4%) but on par with the Volkswagen group (4%). The Big Three's market share falls below 40% in 2025.
The new Renault Trafic E-Tech, designed by Flexis, will replace the old electric Trafic
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The new Renault Trafic E-Tech, designed by Flexis, will replace the old electric Trafic
- Renault has presented its new battery electric Trafic E-Tech light commercial vehicle, the result of Flexis design, i.e. in collaboration with the joint venture that brings together the companies Renault, Volvo and CMA CGM. The new vehicle, based on a completely new platform dedicated to battery electric commercial vehicles, is one of the three new Flexvan models that will be marketed from summer 2026: the Trafic E-Tech, the Goélette E-Tech and the Estafette E-Tech.
- These three models are also expected to be marketed under the Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks brands. They are scheduled to be produced at Renault's Sandouville plant, where the Renault Trafic and Renault Trucks Trafic are currently produced. Inovev forecasts a production of 2,500 units in 2026, 5,000 units in 2027, 6,000 units in 2028, 7,000 units in 2029, and 8,000 units in 2030 under the Renault brand.
- Business customers will be able to choose between an LFP battery offering a 350 km range or an NMC battery (more expensive) offering a 450 km range. In all cases, the model will benefit from Ampere 's 800V technology, enabling fast charging.
- The production of these battery electric models will replace that of the current electric Renault Trafic, while the thermal version of the current Renault Trafic will continue its career for several years.
The Chinese car market will grow by approximately 12% in 2025
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The Chinese car market will grow by approximately 12% in 2025
- The Chinese passenger car market is projected to grow by nearly 12% in 2025, according to figures from the latest 10 months of the year. This means the market is expected to just surpass 25 million cars sold in 2025, a record high. China will therefore remain the world's largest car market.
- In 2024, the Chinese market reached 22.6 million passenger cars, representing a 3% increase compared to 2023 (21.9 million units). Growth then accelerated in 2025, jumping from +3% to +12%.
- Exports are expected to be just over 5.5 million units, compared to 5.0 million in 2024 and 4.1 million in 2023.
- BYD remains the leader in the Chinese market (15% market share), up 13% compared to 2024, ahead of Geely (11%), up 41%, and Chery (9%), up 12%. Volkswagen, formerly the leader in the Chinese market, finds itself in fourth position this year with 9% market penetration, down 2% compared to 2024, after several years of decline in the face of the offensive by Chinese carmakers. GM follows (7%), up 43%, but this is actually misleading since 70% of this volume relates to the Wuling and Baojun subsidiaries, which are 50.1% owned by the Chinese group SAIC, while GM includes these subsidiaries in its own scope, owning 34%. GM's true market share should therefore be 3.5%, not 7%. Next come Changan (6%), Toyota (5%), Great Wall (4%), SAIC (3%, but actually 6.5% including Wuling and Baojun), and Tesla (3%). Chinese carmakers collectively hold 70% of the Chinese market.
Renault will produce electric Ford vehicles in Douai starting in 2028
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Renault will produce electric Ford vehicles in Douai starting in 2028
- The American carmaker Ford has just signed an agreement with French carmaker Renault for the production of new battery electric cars at the Renault site in Douai (France) and at the Renault site in Maubeuge (France) from 2028. These would be models derived from the Renault 5 E-Tech and the Renault Mégane E-Tech.
- It is clear that the all-electric Ford Capri and Explorer, based on the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 platform and produced at Ford's Cologne plant in Germany, are not proving very successful – due to a price considered too high – and are not meeting the carmaker's objectives. 8,300 Capris were produced in 2024 and 16,500 in 2025. The Explorer, on the other hand, was produced in 2024 and 45,000 in 2025. It is also far from the production volumes of the Fiesta at the Cologne plant.
- Having a partnership with Renault to produce new battery electric models in the B and C segments (in a way, the successors to the Fiesta and Focus) would allow Ford to recover some of the volumes lost with the end of the Fiesta and Focus and would allow Renault to get closer to its production targets in Douai, which had been set at 400,000 cars produced per year.
- In 2024, the Douai plant produced 90,000 electric cars, and 2025 is expected to end with a volume of 150,000 units. It is surprising that Ford chose to partner with Renault rather than Volkswagen for its future electric vehicles, as its current Capri and Explorer electric models are based on a Volkswagen platform.
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