Tesla sales decline slows in March 2025
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Tesla sales decline slows in March 2025
- Tesla's global sales decline, which was sharp in January 2025 (-15%) and especially in February 2025 (-33%), slowed in March 2025 (-13%) but remains significant. For the first three months of 2025, Tesla's global sales are expected to decline by 20%, compared to a decline of 24% at the end of February 2025 and 15% at the end of January 2025.
- It is difficult to know what part of the decline in Tesla sales over the past three months is due to Elon Musk's political stances, his active participation in the Trump administration and what part is due to the transition between the old Model Y models and the new restyled Model Y which appeared in recent weeks on the various markets. But what is sure is that there was an “Elon Musc” effect.
- Tesla's sales level is failing to recover in some European countries in March 2025, such as Belgium, Denmark, France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland, i.e. in a good number of European countries. On the other hand, the situation is improving in China (-11% of sales in March 2025 compared to -49% in February 2025) and it is stabilizing in the United States (at -5% of sales).
- The results remain very poor for Tesla, however, as the global electric has recovered in the first quarter of 2025 (+34% according to current Inovev estimates) and its competitor BYD saw its sales increase by 58% over this period compared to the first quarter of 2024, going from 624,000 vehicles sold to 986,000 units. If we take into account BEVs alone, BYD saw its sales reach 416,000 units in the first quarter of 2025 while Tesla did not exceed 360,000 units.
Tesla Model Y remains the best-selling BEV in Europe in January-February 2025
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Tesla Model Y remains the best-selling BEV in Europe in January-February 2025
- With the decline in Tesla sales in Europe (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) recorded over the first two months of 2025, it is interesting to clarify whether the ranking of the best-selling battery electric cars has remained the same as last year during this period.
- Against all odds, the Tesla Model Y remains the best-selling BEV in Europe in the first two months of 2025, but with a sales volume half that of the first two months of 2024. The best selling BEVs, of the Volkswagen group are making strong progress, if we put aside the Audi Q4 which is making very modest progress due to competition from the Audi Q6 which is already in fifteenth place in the ranking. The VW ID4 and ID3 move up to 2nd and 5th place respectively, with 3rd and 4th place, being occupied by the Skoda Enyaq and the VW ID7 which is making a spectacular leap forward, despite a high price.
- It is unclear whether there has been a shift of some Tesla customers to the four Volkswagen Group models mentioned above, but it is a real possibility, especially since the Tesla Model 3 moves from 2nd place to 6th place in January-February 2025.
- It is important to note that small electric cars launched in the second half of 2024 managed to take a place in the Top 15 during these first two months of 2025: the Renault 5 E-Tech is 8th and the Citroën e-C3 is 10th, ahead of the Dacia Spring restyled (11th position) which makes a remarkable return to the Top 15. But they are overtaken by the Kia EV3 which achieves a remarkable and rather unexpected performance. These four models have ousted certain models from the Top 15, such as the MG 4, the Mercedes EQA, the Peugeot e-208 or the Volvo EX40.
Europe imported 205,000 vehicles from the USA in 2024
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Europe imported 205,000 vehicles from the USA in 2024
- According to Inovev's calculations, the 30 european country (EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) imported 210,000 new vehicles from the United States in 2023 and 205,000 in 2024. These imports have therefore remained stable over the past few years. It is to note that these figures relate to USA only and do not include imports from Mexico and Canada.
- The largest quantities of these vehicles imported from the United States come from German premium brands, such as BMW (142,000 units) and Mercedes (46,000 units), which import a large number of locally produced SUVs. These two brands alone account for more than 90% of imports from the United States, or 188,000 units in 2024.
- Volvo imports some 5,000 cars from the United States, ahead of Jeep (4,300 cars), Tesla (3,300 units), whose Model 3s come from China and Model Ys from Germany, Ford (3,000 units) and GM (1,000 units).
- Trump administration says being surprised that vehicles produced in the United States are not selling or are selling very little in Europe. But the large SUVs and large pickup trucks produced in this country are totally unsuited to European demand. The pickup market, for example, represents only 82,000 sales in Europe in 2024 compared to 85,000 in 2023, and these are mid-range pickups, less imposing than the Ford F-Series or Chevrolet Silverado. As for GM and Ford sedans that could have interested customers in Europe, they have completely disappeared from the manufacturing program in the United States. Even the American brands dedicated to the European market (Chrysler France, Chrysler UK, Opel, Vauxhall) have been sold to a European carmaker. For its part, Ford-Europe has decided to eliminate all its sedans (Ka, Fiesta, Focus, Mondeo) following the example of what happened in the United States. Stellantis imports virtually nothing from the United States, and Tesla will soon no longer import any cars from that country. As for Japanese carmakers, they prefer to import their cars from Japan rather than the United States.
Tesla Model Y was the best-selling and most-produced BEV in Europe in 2024
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Tesla Model Y was the best-selling and most-produced BEV in Europe in 2024
- In a European market (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) of nearly 2 million BEVs in 2024 (down 2.1% compared to 2023), representing a market share of 16%, the production volume of BEVs in the same perimeter reached 1.85 million units, slightly down compared to 2023.
- The best-selling BEV model in Europe in 2024 and the most produced (in Germany) remains by far the Tesla Model Y (207,629 units), which is well ahead of the Tesla Model 3 (111,596 units) and the Skoda Enyaq (78,691 units). Tesla had not yet experienced the sharp drop in sales in Europe observed from January 2025.
- In fourth place, we see the presence of a brand new model, the Volvo EX30, a battery electric B-segment SUV produced in China (like the Tesla Model 3) which should however be relocated in Europe as early as 2025, due to its high sales volume (77,053 units) despite the European tariffs that currently apply to battery electric cars produced in China. We also wonder why Tesla does not consider producing its Model 3 in Europe for the European market, to avoid these tariffs.
- The Volkswagen Group's best selling BEVs, Audi Q4, VW ID4 and VW ID3, did no better than take 5th, 6th and 7th in the ranking, with 68,968, 60,881 and 54,261 sales respectively.
- The MG 4 is in 8th rank , down sharply from 2023 (51,301 sales) due to the European tariffs on battery electric cars made in China. MG (a subsidiary of SAIC) has not yet decided to produce its cars in Europe. The 9th and 10th places are occupied by the premium compact SUVs BMW iX1 (45,811 sales) and Mercedes EQA (42,864 sales). There are no Renault and Nissan models in the Top 15, but Peugeot places one model, the e-208, in 13th place (38,136 sales).
Mercedes may produce one more model at its US plant
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Mercedes may produce one more model at its US plant
- Following the announcement of future 25% tariff (in addition to existing tariffs) on car imports from Europe, the Mercedes Group announced that it is considering producing an additional model at its US plant in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Currently, this plant produces the Mercedes GLE (171,333 units in 2024), GLS (46,558 units), EQE (37,974 units), and EQS (24,539 units) large SUVs for the world, as well as the Sprinter lighht truck (55,111 units) for the US market only. In total, the Tuscaloosa plant produced 335,515 vehicles in 2024, with a production capacity set at 350,000 units per year.
- On the other hand, Mercedes imported 201,194 vehicles from Europe in 2024, with the highest sales volumes recorded by the Mercedes GLC (64,163 units), C-Class (35,590 units), GLA (19,079 units) and E-Class (17,638 units).
- We may be tempted to think that one of these four models could be produced in the Tuscaloosa plant for the American market, but in any case it would be necessary to increase the plant's production capacity, to 400,000 vehicles per year for example.
- The most logical solution for Mercedes would be to add the Mercedes GLC SUV (D-segment) to the assembly lines of the Tuscaloosa plant, as it is the brand's most imported model from Europe, slightly more profitable than the smaller GLA SUV (C-segment). And this model would fit well into the plant's overall production of 400,000 units per year.
- But the carmaker could ultimately choose a sedan, either the C-Class (D segment) already produced in Tuscaloosa between 2014 and 2020, or the E-Class (E segment) with a higher margin but half as popular on the US market as the C-Class.
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