Diesel sales continue to fall in Europe

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Diesel sales continue to fall in Europe

- Sales of diesel cars in Europe (the world's most diesel prone continent) fell by 16% in the first half of 2018, to 3.12 million units, a  36.5% market share (down 6 points compared to the first half of 2017). The disaffection for diesel cars is spreading in all European countries.


- Diesel is now totally inexistent on A segment cars, but accounts for more than 25% of the sales of of B segment cars, and still 55% of the sales of C segment, 72% of D segment and 87% of E segment.


- Several manufacturers have announced the gradual abandonment of diesel engines on their models (Toyota, Suzuki, Honda, Fiat, Volvo, Porsche, Nissan), and even PSA and Renault, which remain among the most diesel-based manufacturers in Europe, announced the end of the diesel on passenger cars before 2030.


- Apart from commercial vehicles and trucks that remain 99%  loyal to diesel, the most diesel-fueled passenger cars today are SUVs, which account for 40% of sales in Europe. However, the next Nissan Qashqai that will be launched in 2020 will no longer be available in diesel version.


- In Europe, given the future vehicles that will be on offer, the market share of diesel is expected to be around 25% in 2020, then 15% in 2025 and 5% in 2030.



    
 

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Mexico produces fewer passenger cars and more light trucks in 2018

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Mexico produces fewer passenger cars and more light trucks in 2018
- In 2018, Mexican production of passenger cars declined sharply, while Mexican production of commercial vehicles (SUVs, minivans and pickups) grew strongly, as can be seen in the two graphs below.

- Over the first eight months of 2018, Mexican passenger car production declined by almost 25%, while at the same time, light commercial vehicles grew by almost 25%. Overall, all Mexican production remained stable at + 0.1%.

- The explanation for these two reverse trends is that exports to the United States (which account for 80% of Mexican production) are changing, with exports of passenger cars (sedans) down 20%, and exports of light commercial vehicles (SUVs, minivans and pick-ups) having increased by 18%.

- Indeed, the US market is increasingly abandoning sedans (sales are down 13% in the first 8 months of 2018) while demand for light trucks increases significantly (sales are up 9% over the first 8 months of 2018).

- In the first eight months of 2018, Mexico exported 1.46 million light trucks to the United States (compared to 1.24 million in the first eight months of 2017) and 688,000 sedans (compared with 864,000).

- In total, Mexican exports to the United States (all vehicles combined) grew by 2% in 2018 compared to last year.


    
 

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GAC exhibited models at the Paris Motorshow

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GAC exhibited models at the Paris Motorshow
- Guangzhou Automobile Co. (or GAC) is the sixth largest Chinese car manufacturer. It produced 1,365 million vehicles in 2017, of which 500,000 under its own brand Trumpchi (in 2012, it was 400,000 and 90,000 respectively). GAC does not export cars, except for the few Honda Jazz it produces under license for certain European markets. Honda has helped GAC become a notable manufacturer in China.

- GAC chose the Paris Motorshow to present its models at a European show for the first time . It has not yet set a launch date in Europe and has decided to postpone its introduction to the United States to 2020, because of the current trade war between the two countries.

- Today, the GAC brand is distributed in 15 foreign countries (in Asia, the Middle East and Africa) but the bulk of sales in 2017 and 2018 have been in China.

- GAC is exhibiting its small electric SUV, the Ge3, launched in China last year, at the Paris Motorshow. It has a range of 400 km, according to Chinese calculation standards. More importantly, the Paris show gave GAC the opportunity to reveal a brand new model, the GS5, a large SUV nearly 4.70 m long, with a petrol engine of 1.5 l turbo 166 hp. The brand, which launched its first model in 2011, has adopted a mid-range positioning.


    
 

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German production suffers from the WLTP standard in August 2018

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German production suffers from the WLTP standard in August 2018
- As can be seen in the graph below, German automobile production fell sharply in August 2018, compared to August 2017 and even August 2016, as the Volkswagen group (Germany's largest car manufacturer) underwent difficulties in adapting all of its models to the new WLTP standards this summer, and had to interrupt production for several days.

- As a result, its production volume decreased from 192,000 passenger cars in August 2017 to 162,000 units in August 2018, representing a drop of nearly 16% or 30,000 vehicles.

- Other manufacturers, such as Mercedes and BMW, have also been affected by the temporary shutdown of some of their models, particularly plug-in hybrid models that do not meet WLTP standards.

- Lastly, in August 2018, German production suffered from the decline in confirmed vehicle orders for September 2018, this decrease in orders being directly linked to the anticipated purchases made in June-July-August 2018 due to the change in standards in September 2018.

- In total, Germany's production volume fell by 31.5% in August 2018 compared with August 2017 to 310,400 units compared with 452,800 the previous year. The situation should return to normal before the end of the year.


    
 

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Global car market growth continues unabated

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Global car market growth continues unabated
- Since the global market rebounded in 2010, following the economic and financial crisis in 2008-2009, the global market has grown steadily for over eight years.

- It went from 61 million units (PC+LCV ) in 2009 to 81 million in 2012 and 91 million in 2016. Last year, it stood at 93 million units and according to Inovev figures for the first eight months of 2018, it could increase by almost 3% this year, which would augur a market greater than 95 million units. Growth is however slowing, as sales grew 20 million units in three years, between 2009 and 2012, and only 10 million units in four years, between 2012 and 2016, and will not increase by 10 million more units before 2021.

- On the graph below, we can observe this slight slowdown in the growth of global sales between 2010 and 2018. We also observe a seasonality of sales which is relatively well respected from year to year, with a peak of sales in March of each year and a sales dip in August of each year.

- Global growth is driven mainly by China, as it accounts for 50% of the  growth between 2010 and 2018, and now accounts for one third of global sales (25% in 2010). The US accounts for 25% of global growth over the period. These two countries account for 75% of global growth.


    
 

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