Chinese market suffers three consecutive months decline in the second half of 2018
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Chinese market suffers three consecutive months decline in the second half of 2018
- The Chinese market (PV + LCV) experienced three months of consecutive declines, in July, August and September 2018, the latter sales down 11% relative to September 2017. These declines in the Chinese market during the summer are the result of several months of weak growth recorded last spring.
- This trend in the Chinese market (only + 1% growth over the first 9 months for PC+LCVs and even + 0.4% for PCs) can be explained in part by the economic tensions between China and the United States, which led to reciprocal tariff increases, particularly for automobiles. These tariff increases are causing a slowdown in economic growth in China, and concern for Chinese customers, as a result of tensions between the two countries.
- Overall, there has been a slowdown in the Chinese market since 2017, when PC sales rose by only 1.4% while they increased by 15.6% in 2016. The years 2017 and 2018 could therefore mark the beginning of a stabilization of the Chinese market in the years 2019-2020 and following.
- Manufacturers who suffer the most from the slowdown in the Chinese market in 2018 are Suzuki (-50.7% over 9 months) - who recently decided to withdraw from this market - Ford (-46.1%), Fiat-Chrysler ( -35.9%), Dongfeng (-22.8%), BAIC (-18.1%), Changan (-17.5%), FAW (-14.2%), PSA (-13.5%) ), JAC (-8.5%), Great Wall (-6.2%) and Mazda (-4.6%).
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China remains the world's largest electric car market in 2018
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China remains the world's largest electric car market in 2018
- China has remained by far the leading market for rechargeable electric cars (BEV + PHEV) in the first eight months of 2018, having sold 545,000 units during this period, while Europe has registered only 242,000 units, the United States 190,000 and Japan 41,000.
- Half of the plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and 100% electric cars (BEV) sold worldwide are now registered in China, and this proportion is expected to increase in the coming years, given the quotas imposed by the Chinese government as of 2019 to all automakers established in the country.
- In the long term, Inovev expects 11.2 million 100% electric cars in China in 2035, compared to 2.2 million in Europe, 1.2 million in the US and 0.4 million in Japan. Inovev also expects 4.65 million plug-in hybrid cars in China in 2035, compared to 3.8 million in Europe, 2.5 million in the US and 0.4 million in Japan.
- Finally, Inovev expects 0.5 million non-refillable hybrid cars in China in 2035, compared to 0.58 million in Europe and 1 million in the US, and 1.3 million in Japan.
- Note that in Europe, sales of rechargeable and 100% electric hybrid cars could increase from 272,000 units in 2017 to 3.5 million in 2025 and 6 million in 2035.
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Hybrid European sales breakdown
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Hybrid European sales breakdown
- According to figures released for the first nine months of 2018, sales of non-rechargeable hybrid cars (HEV) are expected to reach 450,000 units in Europe over full year 2018, compared to 365,000 units in 2017, 208,000 units in 2015 and 118,000 units in 2010. This volume is equivalent to 3% of the European market in 2018 (compared to 2% in 2017).
- Given the Toyota group's history in this technology (Toyota launched its first hybrid car in 1997), it is normal that most hybrid cars sold in Europe are from this group.
- In 2018, 83% of HEV cars are Toyota or Lexus, compared to 57% in 2015 and 54% in 2010. It is true that after the Prius hybrid, Toyota has expanded its range of hybrid cars, with the launch of the hybrid Auris (in 2010), the hybrid Yaris (in 2012), the hybrid RAV4 (in 2016), the hybrid CHR (in 2017) not to mention the Lexus.
- It should be added, however, that the Korean group Hyundai-Kia has successfully entered the hybrid car market, with its Hyundai Ioniq and Kia Niro, as it now occupies more than 15% of the European hybrid market, compared to 0% in 2015.
- Other manufacturers who had tried to enter the market for hybrids, whether French (PSA), German (BMW, Mercedes) or British (JLR), all stopped their HEVs to launch rechargeable hybrids (PHEVs). Only Toyota and Hyundai-Kia (and Honda) still believe in the non-rechargeable hybrid.
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Opel Cascada will not be replaced
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Opel Cascada will not be replaced
- Following the acquisition of Opel / Vauxhall by the PSA group in 2017, the French manufacturer has decided to prune the range of the former European subsidiary of General Motors, by phasing out models with low sales potential, and keep only models with higher sales potential, adapting them to PSA platforms and engines.
- This is how Opel Adam, Karl, Zafira and their counterparts at Vauxhall will be abolished in 2019-2020 and will not be replaced. On the other hand, Opel Corsa, Astra, Insignia and their counterparts at Vauxhall will be replaced by models based on PSA platforms between 2020 and 2023, depending on the life cycle of each model.
- As for the Mokka, Crossland and Grandland SUVs, they are already partly based on PSA platforms. It will of course be replaced by 100% PSA platform models, starting with the Mokka next year.
- As for the light commercial vehicles (Combo, Vivaro and Movano), they will be gradually replaced by 100% PSA platform models.
- This is already the case of the new generation Combo. This will be the case of the new generation of Vivaro in 2019.
- Remained the case of Opel Cascada, sold in the United States under the Buick brand. This convertible model, derived from the Astra, will be removed next year without replacement, which will not affect the Polish factory in Gliwice where it is produced, since less than 60,000 units of this model were manufactured over its six years of existence.
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Tesla Model 3 becomes the world's best-selling electric model
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Tesla Model 3 becomes the world's best-selling electric model
- Of 1,079,000 electric cars and plug-in hybrids (BEV + PHEV) sold worldwide in the first eight months of 2018, China has purchased 545,000 units, Europe 242,000 units, the United States 190,000 units and Japan 41,000 units. China has increased its lead by doubling its sales this year compared to last year.
- By manufacturer, the Renault-Nissan group remains leader, with 122,024 sales, ahead of Tesla (115,631 units), which gains one place compared to the cumulated first 6 months of 2018. Next are BYD (110,516 units), BMW (80,481), BAIC (78,549), Geely (74,148) and Volkswagen (68,497). Renault-Nissan benefits from the rise of the new Nissan Leaf, but the American brand Tesla is now on the heels of the Franco-Japanese group, thanks to the even faster increase of the Tesla Model 3, which has become the best-selling electric car in the world for the first 8 months of 2018.
- Despite a price very far from what it should have been initially (35 000 euros), the Model 3 being on sale for 70 000 euros in its most powerful version (340 kW or 460hp), i.e. only 10 000 euros less than the cheapest Model S in the upper segment, the Model 3 is able to attract a large number of customers around the world.
- The production rate of the Tesla Model 3 is now 20,000 units per month, which is theoretically 240,000 units over 12 months. No other electric car can compete today in terms of production with Model 3.
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