EPA engine forecasts for the USA
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EPA engine forecasts for the USA
- The EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), which is the American Environmental Protection Agency, independent of the American government but controlled by the House of Representatives, has delivered its forecasts of the different engines concerning the sales of light vehicles in the United States , a category that includes sedans, SUVs, minivans, vans and pick-ups.
- The EPA's forcasts seem very optimistic regarding electrification, as the Agency predicts that battery electric vehicles (BEV) will go from 7.7% of the US market in 2023 to 26% in 2027, i.e. -say that their market share would have to increase by 4.5% each year for four years. However, this market share only increased by 2% between 2022 and 2023. This would require a strong acceleration in BEV sales between 2023 and 2027. However, in 2024, we are far from achieving such growth. In the first half, we will barely reach 8% of the market...
- For plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), the EPA forecasts a market share of 6% in 2027 while it has not reached 2% in 2023. For full-hybrid vehicles (FHEV), the EPA forecasts a decline in sales, with a market share of 4% in 2027 compared to 7.6% in 2023. This share should fall to 3% in 2032.
- Finally, the EPA predicts a constant and rapid decline in thermal vehicles, whose market share would drop from 83% in 2023 to 43% in 2030 and 29% in 2032. According to this scenario, there would be no more sales of thermal vehicles in the USA between 2038 and 2040.
Production of the Volkswagen Up was stopped at the end of 2023
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Production of the Volkswagen Up was stopped at the end of 2023
- The Volkswagen Up which succeeded in 2011 to the old Volkswagen Lupo (produced in Europe) and Volkswagen Fox (imported from Brazil) was a small A-segment sedan available in three or five doors, and manufactured in Slovakia (Bratislava). Its production was definitively stopped in November 2023. First available with a thermal engine, it was then available in a battery electric version from 2016, but its high price did not helps its distribution. In total, a volume of 1,215,179 units was produced on the Bratislava site (Slovakia) in twelve years according to Inovev, an average of 100,000 units per year, not counting the several tens of thousands of units manufactured in Brazil for the local market. The battery electric versions represented less than 10% of the total volume over 12 years (but up to 25% for 2023 alone).
- The success of this "entry-level" car was ephemeral because from 2013, its sales began to decline and this decline has practically not stopped since that date, undoubtedly because there was no demand for such a model or that the carmaker was reluctant to sell such a model (because margins were too low).
- The Volkswagen Up will, however, have a replacement, since Volkswagen plans to launch a battery electric A-segment car around 2026-2027. This vehicle could have been designed in cooperation with Renault but will ultimately be designed with the help of a Chinese carmaker. Renault has made a similar decision regarding its future Twingo, another battery electric A-segment car, since it should be designed with a Chinese partner. Chinese industry could gradually become the prime contractor for entry-level battery electric European models.
Polestar launches its first SUV
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Polestar launches its first SUV
- A new model launched by the Chinese carmaker Polestar, which is today in third place in terms of sales in Europe among all the Chinese carmakers present on this continent (behind MG and BYD) is not a trivial event, especially more than this new model is the brand's first SUV. This model named Polestar 3 (the Polestar brand being a subsidiary of the Chinese group Geely specializing in plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles derived from Volvo) intends to complete the carmaker's range currently composed of a sedan (Polestar 2) and a coupe (Polestar 1), these two models being on the D-segment (length around 4.60 m). While the Polestar 1 is equipped with a PHEV (plug-in hybrid) engine, the Polestar 2 and 3 are equipped with a fully electric engine (BEV).
- The new Polestar 3 is what we could call a high-end model because it measures 4.90 m long, with a wheelbase approaching 3.00 m (2.98 m) and its announced price is high as it is in a range between 85,000 and 95,000 euros in Europe.
- The Polestar 3 is equipped with an electric motor delivering 489 hp (360 kW) or 517 hp (380 hp), coupled with a 111 kWh battery allowing a range of 560 or 630 km depending on the version and the WLTP cycle.
- Banned in France until today due to a dispute concerning its logo, the Polestar brand will be distributed in this country from the second half of 2024. A new model, the Polestar 4, should be added to the range at that moment.
Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year of the new Ford Capri
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Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year of the new Ford Capri
- Ford Europe has just presented the Capri, whose name is taken from an iconic coupe manufactured by Ford in Europe between 1969 and 1986, as well as in the United States between 1970 and 1977. The new Ford Capri has become an battery electric SUV , based on the battery electric Ford Explorer, an SUV manufactured in Cologne (Germany) whose launch has been postponed until fall 2024. The two models will also be manufactured in the same factory which stopped production of the Ford Fiesta in the end of last year to make way for these two new battery electric models, each will be produced at 50,000 units per year according to Inovev.
- Ford has reached an agreement with Volkswagen to use its MEB platform on its own battery electric European models. The new Ford Capri, 4.63 m long, 1.87 m wide and 1.63 m high, is longer than the Volkswagen ID4 (4.58 m) and ID5 (4.60 m) with which it shares its platform.
- The Skoda Enyaq and Audi Q4 E-Tron which also use this platform will undoubtedly be the main competitors of the new Ford Capri. But the Capri (C-segment) also competes with the Tesla Model Y, Renault Scénic EV and Peugeot 3008 EV, while being located in the Ford range below the Mustang Mach E (D-segment). Its electric motor is coupled with a 77 kWh NMC battery for the propulsion version or 79 kWh for the traction version, allowing a range of 625 kilometers according to the WLTP cycle.
- Its announced price is 49,400 euros for the propulsion or traction versions, and 56,400 euros for the all-wheel drive version, a price to compare to the 45,000 / 47,000 euros of a Tesla Model Y with comparable autonomy, but a version at 46,400 euros will be added to the Capri range in 2025 equipped with a 52 kWh battery delivering a lower autonomy.
The Audi factory in Brussels is threatened with closure
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The Audi factory in Brussels is threatened with closure
- The Audi assembly plant in Brussels Forest (Belgium), which is a former Volkswagen factory, is one of the only two survivors (along with the Volvo assembly plant in Ghent) of the formerly flourishing Belgian automobile industry. This factory produced Volkswagen Lupo, Polo and Golf until 2009, then it produced Audi A1 and A3 until 2018, then finally Audi E-Tron from 2019.
- These battery electric Audi E-Trons which were renamed Q8 E-Tron in 2022 are produced in smaller quantities than the previous models, also produced in this factory, the peak of production having been reached in 2022 with 51,546 units, while the Brussels Forest factory produced 131,226 vehicles in 2012 and even 204,402 in 2005.
- The Audi E-Tron renamed Q8 E-Tron are in fact expensive models reserved for a wealthy class and the sale drop of battery electric vehicles in 2024 observed in several European countries (including Germany which ended in November 2023 ecological bonuses on this type of vehicle) did not help sales of this model in particular.
- Thus, sales of Q8 E-Tron did not exceed 8,130 units over the first five months of 2024, compared to 9,860 over the first five months of 2023 and 11,533 over the first five months of 2022. Over the same period of 2021, the Audi E-Tron achieved 13,156 sales.
- This too low sales volume (which the carmaker had not imagined when the model was launched) threatens the very existence of the Brussels Forest factory which could close in the short or medium term, if no replacement solution is found.