China, Europe and USA represent 93% of global BEV sales in 2023
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China, Europe and USA represent 93% of global BEV sales in 2023
- In 2023, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) represented just over 10 million units (10,114,792 sales) including 6,132,487 units in China, 2,034,936 in Europe (EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) and 1,194,215 in the United States, these three large markets representing 93% of global BEV sales.
- Far behind these three major markets are South Korea (139,437 units), Canada (119,360 units) and Japan (86,762 units), with these three countries representing 3.5% of global BEV sales.
- The remaining 3.5% gathered around twenty other countries, the largest of which are Australia (77,390 units), Thailand (75,755 units), Turkey (54,317 units) and Israel (43,322 units).
- Regarding the market share of BEVs in each country, it is China which remains the locomotive of this market in 2023 with 23.9% penetration in 2023. Second place is more surprising since it is of Israel, with 16% market share of BEVs due to its pioneering position in the field (see “Better Place” fast battery exchange project put into practice in 2008 but quickly stopped due to non-compliance issues and profitability; a concept nevertheless taken up by the carmaker Nio in China).
- Third place in 2023 is held by Europe (EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway), with 15.9% market share of BEVs, the average market share at global level being comparable, of the order by 15.5%.
- Behind Europe, follow South Korea (9.5%), Australia (8.7%), the United States (7.7%), Canada (6.8%) and Turkey ( 5.6%). Other countries have a BEV market share of less than 5% (including Japan: 2.2%).
The production of Chinese vehicles outside China
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The production of Chinese vehicles outside China
- Chinese carmakers who have further increased their market share in China (62.5% market share for passenger cars in the first half of 2024 compared to 60% in the first quarter of 2024) are starting to take an interest in foreign markets and build there assembly plants, particularly in Europe and South America.
- As for Europe (excluding Russia), BYD (the leading Chinese automobile carmaker) has announced the construction of a factory in Hungary and another in Turkey, Chery has announced that it wants to produce vehicles in Spain (at the former Nissan site) and MG-SAIC has indicated that it is about to build an assembly plant in Spain, the Czech Republic or Hungary. If European put additional taxes on BEVs imported from China become truly effective, Chinese factories in Europe could multiply.
- As for Russia, Chinese carmakers assembled 150,000 cars there in the first half of 2024. Note: the breakdown by carmaker of this production in the first half of 2024 is not clear (differences in counting depending on the sources); we choose to show an “all brands” total on the left graph below.
- As for South America, BYD announced that it would take over the Ford plant in Camacari (Brazil) and produce vehicles there from the second half of 2024. Chery already produces vehicles in Brazil and JAC already produces vehicles in Mexico.
- As for Asia outside China, Chinese carmakers already have numerous production sites in Iran, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan, but still of relatively modest size.
- For its part, Geely is taking advantage of its Volvo factories to be able to acquire a global base. This carmaker thus has two factories in Europe, a factory in the United States and a factory in Malaysia, in addition to those located in China.
- In total, Chinese carmakers produced/assembled 475,000 vehicles outside China in the first half of 2024 (including 190,000 Volvos) but this volume is expected to increase sharply due to the new locations announced.
In 2024, Japan remains the first market for Full-HEVs
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In 2024, Japan remains the first market for Full-HEVs
- While Japan remains reluctant about battery electric vehicles (BEV = 1.5% of the market over 5 months 2024) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV = 1.9% of the market over 5 months 2024), it remains the country with the highest demand for full hybrids (Full-HEV = 33.5% of the market over 5 months 2024), thanks mainly to Toyota and its premium subsidiary Lexus.
- More than half of Toyota and Lexus sales in Japan are equipped with full-hybrid powertrains, which seems logical insofar as Toyota was the pioneer of this technology combining gasoline and electric powertrains, the first Toyota Prius having been launched in 1997.
- On the Japanese market, the full-hybrid powertrain seems to be crushing all other alternative powertrains, such as battery electric, plug-in hybrid or even fuel cell. As a result, Japan is crushing all the other major world markets with this type of powertrain (which has reached between 30% and 35% of the Japanese market since 2023, compared with 25% to 30% in the previous two years), while sales of full-hybrids in Europe and the USA have yet to reach 10% market share, although they have been rising steadily since 2018.
- The most hostile major market for this type of powertrain is China, where sales of full-hybrid cars don't even reach 5% market share, with Chinese customers opting instead for plug-in hybrid powertrains, whose influence continues to grow, with a market share gradually approaching 20% of the Chinese market by 2024.
BYD will build an assembly plant in Turkey
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BYD will build an assembly plant in Turkey
- The Chinese carmaker BYD, the world's second largest carmaker of battery electric vehicles behind Tesla (650,000 units sold over the first 5 months of 2024 compared to 765,000 Tesla) has announced that it will build an assembly factory in Turkey and that this construction is imminent.
- This construction of a BYD assembly plant on the borders of the European Union is in addition to the ongoing construction of a BYD assembly plant in Hungary, which tends to prove that BYD is the most active Chinese carmaker and the most ambitious with regard to the European market.
- These constructions of two BYD battery electric vehicle assembly plants for the European market seem to respond (in anticipation) to European measures aimed at overtaxing BEVs from China and removing their ecological bonus in certain countries. Turkey is in fact not affected by these additional taxes on cars produced on its soil.
- The two Hungarian and Turkish assembly plants are planned to each produce 150,000 cars each year, a volume which could be doubled in the 2030s if the models produced there are successful.
- The first cars will leave the Hungarian factory at the beginning of 2026, the deadline for those to leave the Turkish factory has not yet been announced, but it could be either in 2027 or 2028.
China sees strong sales of PHEV since 2023
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China sees strong sales of PHEV since 2023
- While sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have been stagnating in Europe and the USA since 2023, sales in China have been rising sharply since 2021, and even more strongly since 2023. In May 2024, PHEV market share in China reached 18%, compared to 14% in March 2024, 11% in September 2023, 8% in March 2023 and 5% in March 2022. It seems that Chinese customers see PHEV models as less expensive than battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and more economical than ICE cars. In fact, the new PHEV customer base is to be found on the thermal car side, since neither BEV nor Full-HEV sales are collapsing in China.
- Customers in Europe are reacting differently, since for some of them, this is the first step towards acquiring a BEV that is more expensive and less practical to use (due to its limited range), while for others, this is a motorisation that is about to be banned in view of the European regulations announced for 2035.
- PHEV market share in large Europe (EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) fell to less than 7% in May 2024, compared with 8% in January 2024, 9% in October 2023 and 12% in December 2022.
- In the USA, PHEV market share has stagnated at 2% since 2023. In Japan, PHEVs don't even reach this figure, as Japanese customers prefer full-hybrids (Full-HEV). PHEV market share in Japan floats between 1% and 1.5%, and the new Toyota Prius PHEV hasn't changed the trend at all.