Inovev forecasts 300,000 units per year worlwide of the new BMW X3 SUV
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Inovev forecasts 300,000 units per year worlwide of the new BMW X3 SUV
- The Bavarian carmaker BMW has just unveiled its new D-segment SUV, the X3, which replaces the previous model which was launched in 2017.
- The first BMW X3 dates back to 2004, and was produced in Graz, Austria (at Magna-Steyr), as the carmaker did not have enough production capacity in Germany to produce the model. But in 2010, it was transferred to North America, along with the E-segment X5, at the Spartanburg site in South Carolina. At that time, around 150,000 units a year were produced, mainly for the USA and Europe. Gradually, however, the X3 was also exported to China.
- In 2018, following growing demand in China, the third-generation X3 was also produced there for local demand, at a rate of around 130,000 units a year. Since 2020, Chinese X3 production has been higher than American production. Finally, the X3 has also been assembled in South Africa since 2017.
- The new BMW X3, based on the CLAR platform, is a competitor to the Mercedes GLC and Audi Q5. It is 5 cm longer than the previous generation, reaching 4.75m. It is also 3 cm wider (1.92 m) and 1 cm lower (1.66 m). Its powertrains are carried over from the previous generation, namely a 2-liter MHEV gasoline engine, a 2-liter MHEV diesel engine and a PHEV plug-in hybrid engine. The battery electric version (BEV) should be launched next year, with a different body based on the Neue Klasse concept. Inovev forecasts 300,000 BMW X3 sales per year worldwide.
Dacia Sandero is becoming Europe's best-selling car in 2024
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Dacia Sandero is becoming Europe's best-selling car in 2024
- While the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car in Europe (30 countries = EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) in 2023, ahead of the Dacia Sandero, it is the Dacia Sandero that becomes the best-selling car in Europe (114,000 units) over the 5 months of 2024 in a market that grew by 4.6% compared to the 5 months of 2023. The Tesla Model Y falls from first to eighth place (73,000 units).
- Even more surprising is the spectacular rise of the Volkswagen Golf (102,000 units) from ninth to second place over the same period. This spectacular rise is linked to the collapse of the Volkswagen ID3 and ID4, which fall from 56th and 60th place to 92nd and 96th. It seems that some customers, especially in Germany - due to the end of subsidies on the purchase of battery electric vehicles - have preferred to switch from the ID3/ID4 to the Golf, confirming the failure of the ID3/ID4, which was originally intended to become the leader of electric cars in Europe. The German carmaker's objective has completely failed. The sales collapse of the Tesla Model Y is also linked to the end of subsidies in Germany.
- The Peugeot 208 (89,000 units) and Renault Clio (87,000 units) rank third and fourth in Europe, ahead of the Volkswagen T-Roc (84,000 units), Peugeot 2008 (73,000 units) and Citroën C3 (73,000 units). Then, in eighth place, we find the Tesla Model Y. There are five French cars in the top 7, which is rare as German cars are usually the ones keeping the first places.
The most-produced car in Japan in 2023 was the Toyota RAV4
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The most-produced car in Japan in 2023 was the Toyota RAV4
- Japan is currently the world's fourth-largest light vehicles producer (passenger cars & light utility vehicles), behind China, the EU and the USA, with 9 million light vehicles produced in 2023. In Japan, there is a clear distortion between the automotive market (sales), which favors the acquisition of small Kei cars known (similar to European A-segment vehicles), and automotive production, which is more focused on mid-range SUVs.
- Why this specific distortion? Quite simply because Kei cars are not exported, and are limited solely to the Japanese domestic market (even though there may be a demand for them: India, for example, sells 500,000 to 600,000 locally-produced equivalent Kei cars a year). On the other hand, mid-range SUVs are largely exported to countries all over the world.
- The most popular vehicles produced in Japan in 2023 - as in previous years - are the Toyota RAV4 (375,000 units) and the Mazda CX5 (350,000 units). The Subaru Forester (265,000 units), Subaru Crosstrek (175,000 units), Lexus NX (155,000 units) and Nissan X-Trail (153,000 units) also feature in the Top 10.
- There is six SUVs in the Top 10 by 2023. Two Toyota sedans (Corolla: 268,000 units and Prius: 171,000 units) and a Toyota MPV (Noah: 194,000 units) also feature in the Top 10, as does the Honda N-BOX (Japan's best-selling Kei car), which reached a production volume of 230,000 units in 2023. No Daihatsu or Suzuki models feature in the Top 10, these two brands being specialists in Kei cars that are not exported and produced in relatively limited quantities for the Japanese market.
The European Commission proposes an additional tax on Chinese BEVs
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The European Commission proposes an additional tax on Chinese BEVs
- We recently saw that Chinese brands have 2.5% of the European market (30 countries) on the first four months of 2024, and 8.5% of the European BEV market. Furthermore, Inovev has analysed that, even in the specific case of the French market, where subsidies on the purchase of models imported from China have been discontinued, Chinese cars currently remain competitive.
- Today, these cars risk becoming less competitive, as the European Commission has just proposed to increase their customs duties due to "subsidies considered unfair" which would be attributed to Chinese carmakers exporting their battery electric vehicles to Europe. These subsidies would make the cars cheaper than their European competitors, thereby distorting the market. This proposal follows an investigation carried out by the European Commission to verify the existence and quantify these "unfair subsidies" from which Chinese carmakers would benefit, causing serious economic prejudice to European carmakers.
- The system proposed by the European Commission aims to introduce a different level of taxation for each carmaker, for example 17.4% for BYD, 20% for Geely or 38% for SAIC (MG), the best-selling Chinese brands in Europe. By default, the additional tax would be 21% for carmakers who cooperated with the survey, and 38% for those who did not.
- The Chinese authorities have strongly criticised this proposal, accusing it of being a protectionist measure, and German carmakers are also highly critical, pointing to the negative effects of these measures, as they could suffer a similar response from the Chinese authorities as Germany exported 250,000 cars to China in 2023, representing over 97% of European automotive exports. It should also be noted that nearly 5 million licensed European vehicles are assembled in China (see next slide). These measures may have different consequences: It could accelerate the construction of Chinese carmakers' factories in Europe and in European nearby countries, push Chinese carmakers to switch to ICE or PHEV technologies, or even create an additional tax on European vehicles imported into China (350,000 units in 2023), mainly from Germany (250,000 units in 2023).
Russian automotive market: growth in 2023 and 2024
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Russian automotive market: growth in 2023 and 2024
- The Russian automotive market, which oscillated between 100,000 and 170,000 vehicles a month before 2022, corresponding to a volume of between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000 units a year between 2017 and 2021, plummeted when the conflict with Ukraine broke out in February 2022. Related to Russia's population (nearly 150 million), this volume of vehicle sold remains low, being roughly equivalent to that of France or Italy, which have 2.5 times fewer inhabitants than Russia.
- The year 2022 was marked by a very low volume of vehicle registered in Russia, in a range of 40,000 to 60,000 per month, 2.5 times less than in the previous five years.
- The year 2023 saw a clear improvement compared to 2022, with a registration volume of between 40,000 and 100,000 per month, with the best figures recorded in the last quarter, between September and December. The annual total for 2023 reached 937,081 vehicles, compared with 687,370 in 2022, representing an increase of 36% but a decrease of 44% compared to 2021, before the outbreak of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
- Over the first six months of 2024, registrations have increased by 95% compared to the first six months of 2023. A market of nearly 1,500,000 units could be reached over the whole of 2024, compared to 1,666,780 units in 2021 and 1,598,825 in 2020. Since 2022, the Russian automobile market therefore seems to have regained new strength, but without European manufacturers. Over the first six months of 2024, Chinese manufacturers hold 61% of this market.