The global automotive market will decline by 15% in 2020
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The global automotive market will decline by 15% in 2020
- The global automotive market (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) fell by 15.7% over the ten months of 2020, compared to the firs ten months of 2019. This decline is broken down as follows: -18.2% for passenger cars and -9.6% for light utility vehicles.
This decline in vehicle sales in 2020 is the result of the coronavirus crisis, which affected the whole world but more particularly the populations of Europe and America, those located in Asia having been less affected.
This decline in vehicle sales in 2020 is the result of the coronavirus crisis, which affected the whole world but more particularly the populations of Europe and America, those located in Asia having been less affected.
- The decline in vehicle sales was especially significant during the 2020 spring, when most of the major countries have established lock down for their populations. Sales, however, continued at an almost normal rhythm in countries where there was no or light lock down. These sales were made on existing stock for markets sourcing their cars from countries where factories has been stopped. This is the reason why stocks usually calibrated for one month of sales have fallen to very low volumes, the lowest in many years.
- Since the summer of 2020, global sales have started to rise again and are approaching pre-crisis levels except in Europe, where there is still a drop in sales of around 27% over the ten months in 2020. In Asia, the sales drop did not exceed 13.5% over the same period (a drop twice that of Europe). As for South and North Americas, the sales drop did not exceed 20%, a drop halfway between Europe and Asia.
- Based on these elements and a probable improvement in November and December, especially noticeable in Asia, Inovev expects the global automotive market to decline by 15% over the whole of 2020.
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続きを読む... The global automotive market will decline by 15% in 2020
xEVs sales in Europe over 9 months 2020
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xEVs sales in Europe over 9 months 2020
- Out of 1,784,293 battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEB) cars have been sold worldwide over the first nine months of 2020. 772,340 units were sold in Europe and 695,131 units in China. Of the 772,340 units sold in Europe, 54% are BEVs (+ 64.5% compared to the first nine months of 2019) and 46% PHEVs (+ 180.4% compared to the first nine months of 2019).
- The almost tripling of PHEV sales is due in part to the increased carmakers offer and it is to be noted that these models are rather premium and high segments, except for the recent launch of the Captur PHEV by Renault. BEVs and PHEVs now represent 9% of European registrations, against 3.5% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2018. It remains to be seen whether this exponential rate will continue over the next few years. It is clear that the increase in carmakers offer of BEVs and PHEVs will support this growth. Government decisions has to support also this trend. The United Kingdom, for example, wants to stop sales of cars with combustion engines in 2030 (to be confirmed), Norway from 2025.
- Regarding hybrid cars (HEV), they reach a total of 325,841 sales in Europe over the first nine months of 2020, plus 654,504 mild-hybrid & vehicles equipped with 48V batteries. These models saw their sales increase by 42.6% in Europe over the period. They now represent 4% of the European market, or 12% including mild-hybrid and 48V.
- The total of xEVs (BEV, PHEV and HEV) in Europe therefore stands at 1,098,181 units over the first nine months of 2020 (excluding mild-hybrid and 48V vehicles).
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The evolution of carmakers worldwide sales over 9 months 2020
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The evolution of carmakers worldwide sales over 9 months 2020
- Over the first nine months of 2020, the results of the various carmakers present in a strong declining global market (-20.6%) are mostly negative. Among the thirty largest carmakers, only Tesla (+31%), FAW (+26%) and Changan(+20%) achieve positive scores, and two of them Chinese.
- In percentage of sales, the largest decreases are recorded by Mahindra (-40%), PSA (-34%), Tata Motors (-30%), BAIC (-29%), Renault-Nissan (-28%), Suzuki (-27% ), FCA (-23%), Isuzu (-22%), Ford (-21%) and BYD (-21%). These carmakers are losing market share in 2020 as they shrink more than the global market as a whole.
- The carmakers which are declining as much as the global market and therefore keep their market share are Volkswagen (-20%), Honda (-20%), Subaru (-20%) and Mazda (-20%).
- Finally, the carmakers who fall less than the global market and therefore gain market share are GM (-19%), Toyota (-18%), Daimler (-18%), BMW (-15%), Chery (- 15%), GAC (-15%), Hyundai-Kia (-14%) and especially Geely (-9%), JAC (-7%), Great Wall (-5%), SAIC (-5%), Brilliance (-5%) and Dongfeng (-3%).
- In terms of volumes, the Volkswagen and Toyota groups are neck and neck for the first place, ahead of Renault-Nissan, GM, Hyundai-Kia, Honda, Ford, FCA and PSA. These figures shows that the future Stellantisgroup is not sure whether it will be the fourth largest carmaker in the world in 2021, as in 2020 GM sales are now higher than PSA + FCA sales combined.
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続きを読む... The evolution of carmakers worldwide sales over 9 months 2020
BEVs and PHEVs sales breakdown in Europe and China over 9 months 2020
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BEVs and PHEVs sales breakdown in Europe and China over 9 months 2020
- Out of 1,784,293 battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sold worldwide over the first nine months of 2020, 772,340 units were sold in Europe and 695,131 units in China. If we differentiate the BEVs, we observe that Europe registered 416,389 BEVs over the period (+64.5% compared to the first nine months of 2019) while China registered 511,303 over the same period ( -19.5% compared to the first nine months of 2019).
- For PHEVs, Europe registered 355,951 vehicles (+180.4% compared to the first nine months of 2019) and China 151,217 (-14.1% compared to the first nine months of 2019).
- The top European markets for BEVs are Germany (98,610 units), France (70,587 units), Great Britain (66,611 units) and Norway (48,175 units). It should be noted that six European markets (those mentioned plus the Netherlands and Italy) account for 80% of BEVs sales in Europe. The top European markets for PHEV are Germany (105,882 units), Great Britain (42,277 units), France (40,287 units) and Sweden (40,264 units).
- Non-plug-in hybrid cars (HEV) were sold at 980,345 units in Europe over the period (+42.6% compared to the first nine months of 2019), especially in Germany and Great Britain. In China, they reached 168,924 units over the period (+22.4% compared to 2019). They are now ahead of PHEV sales in this market.
- The market share of these three electrified engines therefore now reaches 20.9% in Europe, or 11.7% for HEVs, 5.0% for BEVs and 4.2% for PHEVs. In China, it reached 6.2%, including 1.3% for HEVs, 3.8% for BEVs and 1.1% for PHEVs.
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続きを読む... BEVs and PHEVs sales breakdown in Europe and China over 9 months 2020
Inovev forecasts 20,000 units per year of the new BMW iX
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Inovev forecasts 20,000 units per year of the new BMW iX
- BMW has unveiled its new battery electric vehicle, an SUV based on the i-Next concept presented in November 2018. It is simply called iX, which could create confusion with the existing iX3. It might have been smarter to call it iX5 or iX7, or even i-Next.
- The BMW iX is in fact in the form of a large SUV (E segment), 4.90 m long and 1.80 m high, or dimensions close to that of an X5 or an X6.
- Obviously, the new model will be in terms of price at the top of the hierarchy of SUVs of the Bavarian brand, above 100,000 euros (an iX3 is already priced 70,000 euros).
- At this price, do not expect a large sales volume, probably around 20,000 units per year. It's not as good as an Audi E-Tron but better than a Mercedes EQC.
- On the technical side, the BMW iX adopts a new platform and engine. Two electric motors offer a combined power of more than 500 hp and the 100 kWh battery provides a range of 600 km, more than that of the Audi E-Tron (445 km) or the Tesla Model X (560 km), its main competitors. Note also the reintroduction of carbon fiber elements in the materials used on the body structure, which has not been seen in BMW since the 7 Series.
- The BMW iX will be on sale from autumn 2021 and will be produced at the German Dingolfingplant, alongside the 5 Series, 6 Series, 7 Series and 8 Series.
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続きを読む... Inovev forecasts 20,000 units per year of the new BMW iX