Chinese carmakers continue to increase on the Chinese market in 2025
- 说明
Chinese carmakers continue to increase on the Chinese market in 2025
- In the first quarter of 2025, production of passenger cars (sedans, SUVs, MPVs) in China increased by 16% compared to the first quarter of 2024, to 6.5 million units compared to 5.60 million last year. This growth marks both the good performance of the Chinese market and the increase in exports, which the CAAM (China Association of Automobile carmakers) estimates at 1.42 million units over the first three months of the year, up 7.3% compared to last year. CAAM estimates the domestic market at 5.24 million units in the first quarter of 2025, up 14.5% compared to the first quarter of 2024.
- Chinese carmakers continue to gain market share from foreign carmakers, most of which produce their cars through joint ventures with Chinese companies. The trend is obvious by obeserving the carmakers growth in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024 to see this.
- BYD, Geely, Wuling, Chery, Xpeng, Xiaomi are the carmakers that have progressed the most during this period and often with significant volumes (362,000 for BYD, 227,000 for Geely, 132,000 for Wuling, 92,000 for Chery, 72,000 for Xpeng, 72,000 for Xiaomi). There are 12 Chinese carmakers among the 14 carmakers that have progressed in 2025.
- Those that have declined the most during the same period are Honda (-85,000 units), Nissan (-52,000 units) and Tesla (-48,000 units), two Japanese carmakers and one American carmaker. There are 9 non-Chinese carmakers among the 15 carmakers that have declined in 2025 (including 4 European, 2 Japanese and 2 American). Note that the American group GM, not including Wuling (owned by SAIC at 50.1%), remained stable but at a very low level.
Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is the 3rd best selling model in China in 2025
- 说明
Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is the 3rd best selling model in China in 2025
- Wuling is a Chinese carmaker that formerly specialized in minivans and now specializes in small cars. Wuling is shared between SAIC, which owns 50.1%, and GM, which owns 44%. The remaining 5.9% is owned by Guangxi Auto.
- The small electric city car Wuling Hongguang Mini EV was launched in 2020. It quickly became the best-selling car in China, due to a positioning that went against the sedans and SUVs then offered by Chinese brands but responded to a significant and unmet customer demand, looking for a small electric car, practical, economical and inexpensive.
- Sales of the Mini EV thus increased from 127,651 units in 2020 to 426,482 in 2021 and 554,071 in 2022. The pre-launch and launch of the Wuling Bingo in 2023 then caused a collapse in sales of the Hongguang Mini EV (118,834 units in 2023). Thanks to various technical and aesthetic improvements, sales of the Wuling Mini EV took off again from autumn 2023 before surprisingly declining in early 2024 (an anticipation of the new model launched in summer 2024?).
- Sales resumed again from autumn 2024 after the launch of the four-door version and batteries offering increased autonomy. In the first quarter of 2025, the Mini EV recorded 101,999 sales in China, representing an annual rate of 400,000 sales. The model moved from 19th rank in 2024 to 3rd in 2025.
- Its competitive price (40,000 yuan for the four-door version, the equivalent of 4,975 euros) remains a major asset, especially in a market where affordable electric vehicles are highly demanded. Finally, the marketing strategy (four-door version, convertible version, luxury Macaron version) and technical efforts to meet consumer expectations also played a key role.
China exported 1.42 million vehicles in the first quarter of 2025
- 说明
China exported 1.42 million vehicles in the first quarter of 2025
- China exported 507,000 vehicles in March 2025, up 1% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2025, vehicle exports reached 1.42 million units, up 7.3% year-on-year. At the current pace, China could export between 5.7 and 6.0 million vehicles in 2025, setting a new record and cementing its position as the world's leading automobile exporter, ahead of Japan and Europe.
- Among these 507 000 vehicles, 411 000 were passenger cars and 96 000 were utility vehicles (1,2 million PCs and 240 000 UVs in Q1-2025)
- In total, China will export between 18% and 20% of its automotive production this year, primarily to Europe and Russia. These exports include models from non-Chinese carmakers produced in China.
- Among the top ten vehicle exporters in March 2025:
• Chery Group led the way with 86,000 units shipped, up 2.8% year-on-year, and accounting for 17.1% of China's total exports. From January to March 2025, Chery exported 254,000 vehicles, an annual rate of one million vehicles.
• BYD Group recorded the fastest growth, exporting 73,000 vehicles, up 88.4% year-on-year.
• MG (SAIC) is the third largest exporter, delivering its vehicles (72,000 vehicles) mainly to Europe 30 countries (EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) while Chery delivers mainly to Russia.
• Next come Changan (50,000 vehicles), Geely (43,000 vehicles) and Great Wall (32,000 vehicles).
• The other carmakers each delivered less than 30,000 vehicles.
The ranking of the Top 15 Chinese models shaken up in the first quarter of 2025
- 说明
The ranking of the Top 15 Chinese models shaken up in the first quarter of 2025
- The first quarter of 2025 marks various changes in the ranking of the top 15 bestselling models in China (local market + exports), compared to 2024.
- First of all, the Tesla Model Y loses its first place in 2025 and falls to fourth place. We may think that this model undergoes the transition with the new facelifted version but the Model 3 suffers the same fate by falling from fifth place to seventh place. The first two places in the Top 15 are now occupied by two BYD models (Song Plus and Seagull).
- We note that there isfewer BYD brand models (leading brand in China) in the Top 15 of 2025 than in the Top 15 of 2024, i.e. 5 models instead of 8. This does not mean that BYD sales are declining but that while two models are showing strong growth (Song Plus and Seagull), some others have been overtaken by models from other brands.
- Notably, we observe the thunderous return (to third place) of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, which has benefited from a facelift, the launch of a four-door version and various technical improvements. This model could return to its annual sales rate of 400,000 in 2025, something that has not happened for three years.
- We observe the arrival in the Top 15 of the Xiaomi SU7 (in eighth place) which confirms the success of the model (we are now at a rate of 300,000 sales per year, twice as many as expected).
- We note the presence of three Geely models in the Top 15 compared to only one last year.
- The only foreign brand in the Top 15, Volkswagen now only has two models in 2025, compared to three in 2024.
Tesla sales decline slows in March 2025
- 说明
Tesla sales decline slows in March 2025
- Tesla's global sales decline, which was sharp in January 2025 (-15%) and especially in February 2025 (-33%), slowed in March 2025 (-13%) but remains significant. For the first three months of 2025, Tesla's global sales are expected to decline by 20%, compared to a decline of 24% at the end of February 2025 and 15% at the end of January 2025.
- It is difficult to know what part of the decline in Tesla sales over the past three months is due to Elon Musk's political stances, his active participation in the Trump administration and what part is due to the transition between the old Model Y models and the new restyled Model Y which appeared in recent weeks on the various markets. But what is sure is that there was an “Elon Musc” effect.
- Tesla's sales level is failing to recover in some European countries in March 2025, such as Belgium, Denmark, France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland, i.e. in a good number of European countries. On the other hand, the situation is improving in China (-11% of sales in March 2025 compared to -49% in February 2025) and it is stabilizing in the United States (at -5% of sales).
- The results remain very poor for Tesla, however, as the global electric has recovered in the first quarter of 2025 (+34% according to current Inovev estimates) and its competitor BYD saw its sales increase by 58% over this period compared to the first quarter of 2024, going from 624,000 vehicles sold to 986,000 units. If we take into account BEVs alone, BYD saw its sales reach 416,000 units in the first quarter of 2025 while Tesla did not exceed 360,000 units.