Volkswagen and X-Peng join forces in electric vehicles
- 说明
Volkswagen and X-Peng join forces in electric vehicles
- Volkswagen and the Chinese X-Peng are joining forces to develop battery electric vehicles. The German carmaker has decided to take a 5% stake in the Chinese carmaker which was founded in 2014 and which specializes in the design and production of battery electric vehicles. In China, the two carmakers will sell approximately the same number of electric vehicles in 2023, or around 150,000 units each. Volkswagen's association with X-Peng will expand the range of battery electric vehicles to B-segment models which will be marketed in China from 2026.
- Volkswagen's battery electric platform currently only covers cars in the C-D-E segments represented by the ID3, ID4, ID5, ID6 and ID7. For the B segment, a new platform is being born to give birth in Europe to the future ID1 and ID2, but the carmaker seems to be choosing another platform for China (which will not developed with Renault).
- This association aims above all to reduce the costs of battery electric vehicles in B-segment in order to obtain the lowest possible selling price.
- Remember that there are currently no battery electric B-segment models either in the Volkswagen range or in the X-Peng range. The targeted models are the BYD Seagull (280,000 sales in 2023) and Wuling Bingo (235,000 sales in 2023) which alone each represent almost twice the total sales of battery electrics Volkswagen or X-Peng . The two carmakers believe that the Chinese market for B-segment BEVs is expected to grow during this decade (vehicles for younger generations or second vehicles for relatively wealthy families).
China and Europe: different number of models – different series levels
- 说明
China and Europe: different number of models – different series levels
China and Europe have a very different production structure in terms of passenger cars (PC) production:
- different production quantities
- number of different models
- different serial levels
a) Different production quantities
All motorisations included, in 2023, the volume of Chinese passenger car production is twice that of Europe (EEZ perimeter = Economic European Zone = 33 countries which are EU + United Kingdom + Norway + Switzerland + Turkey + Serbia + Morocco).
In total, within this scope, China produced 26 million PCs in 2023 and Europe 13.8 million.
In total, within this scope, China produced 26 million PCs in 2023 and Europe 13.8 million.
b) Number of different models
In 2023, the number of models in China is 631, or 3 times more than in Europe (212 models).
c) Different serial levels
§ Average serial level.
By dividing the total volume of vehicles produced in Europe by the number of models produced in Europe, we obtain the average production level in Europe. This average production level in Europe is 65,000 vehicles per year (production 13.8 million/212 models).
A similar calculation for China enables us to achieve a result of 41,000 vehicles per year (production 26 million/548 models). A first-level of analysis therefore suggests that the average serial level in China is lower than in Europe. But this is just an optical illusion, due to the fact that China has a large number of very small series models, which artificially lowers the average.
A similar calculation for China enables us to achieve a result of 41,000 vehicles per year (production 26 million/548 models). A first-level of analysis therefore suggests that the average serial level in China is lower than in Europe. But this is just an optical illusion, due to the fact that China has a large number of very small series models, which artificially lowers the average.
§ Serial level of the most produced models.
In fact, to the previous analysis must be added a more detailed analysis taking into account the distribution of models by series levels and in particular the most produced models: see the following chapter concerning the Top 10. On the China side, we observe, all motorisations included, one model produced between 600,000 and 700,000 (Tesla Y), 3 models produced between 400,000 and 500,000 (3 BYD models), 2 models produced between 300,000 and 400,000, 17 models produced between 200,000 and 300,000, 60 models produced between 100,000 and 200,000, or 83 models produced at more than 100,000 units and therefore 548 models produced between 0 and 100,000 units. On the European side, no models are produced above 300,000 units in 2023, but 9 models are produced between 200,000 and 300,000 units, 38 models produced between 100,000 and 200,000, or 47 produced at more than 100,000 units and therefore 165 models produced between 0 and 100,000 units. We then see that the models which are the most produced in China have much higher production levels than those produced in Europe. This difference is further greatly accentuated if we focus on Plug-In vehicles (PIV= BEV & PHEV).
§ The average level of series for the Top 10 China is as follows:
- All motorisations: China: 375,000 per year and Europe: 220,000 per year.
- BEV: China 300,000 per year and Europe: 80,000 per year
- PHEV: China: 200,000 per year and Europe: 40,000 per year
JLR may produce BEVs based on a Chery platform
- 说明
JLR may produce BEVs based on a Chery platform
- The JLR group (formerly Jaguar Land-Rover), a subsidiary of the Indian Tata Motors, could produce in the future battery electric vehicles using a platform from the Chinese carmaker Chery, and would thus become the first luxury car carmaker to adopt a Chery platform. It would be a platform of the luxury brand Exeed (multi-segment) belonging to the Chery group.
- Jaguar and Land-Rover already produce cars in a Chinese factory in Chery and it is therefore quite natural that the British group turned to this carmaker to optimize its investments in electric engines. Remember that JLR wants to become a carmaker that will only produce battery electric vehicles in 2030 and that there are only six years left to complete this transformation.
- Obtaining an external platform would make it possible to accelerate the launches of various battery electric vehicles as well as the testing phases. In addition, the choice of a Chery platform would make it easier to adapt the industrialization phase in a factory owned by Chery and JLR at 50% each.
- This strategy, however, raises various questions regarding the positioning of the JLR group's brands. Indeed, Jaguar intends to only produce E and F segment models in the future. Will the Chery Exeed platform be able to meet this expectation? In addition, the platform for the future Jaguar GT 4-door already exists, so why not using this platform on other future models of the brand? Or would the Chery Exeed platform only be used for Land Rover models?
Chinese carmakers now represent 60% of the Chinese market
- 说明
Chinese carmakers now represent 60% of the Chinese market
- Chinese car carmakers continue to progress in their home market at the expense of foreign carmakers. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, they represented 60% of the Chinese market compared to 57% at the end of 2023, 51% at the end of 2022, 45% at the end of 2021 and 40%. % at the end of 2020.
- At the end of March 2024, the situation in the Chinese automobile market is very clear: The Volkswagen group is still the leader but it is closely followed by the Chinese BYD and three other Chinese carmakers take the next three places (Geely, Chery, Changan). The growth of Geely and Chery is spectacular. Geely thus moves from fifth to third place and Chery moves from seventh to fourth place. The former number 2 in the Chinese market, GM Group, gradually fell to seventh place behind Toyota and ahead of Honda. The Chinese Great Wall moved from fourteenth to ninth place.
- In conclusion, Chinese carmakers are taking significant shares formerly occupied by foreign carmakers. This is a radical change from the Chinese customers who are buying more and more Chinese products. Apart from Tesla, foreign carmakers have no chance of stopping this “tsunami”. But the future of Tesla is not 100% guaranteed.
- On the graph here below, we see that most of the sales growth in the first quarter of 2024 came from Chinese carmakers, with the entire Chinese passenger car market having increased by 9.7% during this period.
Tesla has a production capacity of 2.35 million vehicles in 2024
- 说明
Tesla has a production capacity of 2.35 million vehicles in 2024
- Despite the drop in its global sales during the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023 (-8.5% including -3.7% in China, -11.5% in the United States, -9.8% in Europe ), Tesla believes in a revival of its sales volumes in 2024, in particular thanks to the recent facelifted version of its Model 3 and the prices reduction on all of its existing models (Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X).
- In 2023, Tesla will produce 1.85 million electric vehicles compared to 1.37 million in 2022, 930 000 in 2021 and 500 000 in 2020. At the current rate, the Californian carmaker would produce 1.7 million electric vehicles in 2024 while its production capacities increased from 2 million to 2.35 million units per year between 2023 and 2024, distributed as follows: 950,000 in Shanghai (China), 650,000 in Fremont (California-USA), 375,000 in Berlin (Germany) and 375,000 in Austin (Texas-USA).
- The Model 2, which was supposed to be launched in 2025 to expand the carmaker's range in the lower segments and attract new customers thanks to a price between 25,000 and 35,000 euros, will surely be postponed to a later date. By eliminating 10% of its workforce, Tesla must review its strategy and its ambitions, within a global BEV market which seems to be slowing down and in which new players are appearing, mainly Chinese.
- Regarding utility vehicles, Tesla has indicated that it wants to sell 125,000 Cybertrucks per year and 50,000 Semi trucks per year, vehicles which will begin to be produced in 2024. The factory planned in Mexico (probably for the Model 2), near Monterrey, is expected to be built in 2024-2025.