Electric car sales in the first quarter of 2020

The global market for 100% electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars totaled 460,506 units in the first quarter of 2020, representing 4.5% of the global automotive market compared to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2019.


Despite the collapse of the European market as a whole (-26.3% in the first quarter of 2020), sales of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid cars increased considerably over the same period, going from 126,000 to 229,000 registered units, which represents a market share of 7.5% (against 3% a year earlier) As a result, these sales far exceed those of electric and plug-in hybrid cars in China in the first quarter of 2020 which collapsed to 129,000 units, half the volume produced a year earlier. This volume now represents only 4.5% of the Chinese market.


Remarkably, the Tesla Model 3 becomes the best-selling electric car in China in 2020 (it is produced locally), far ahead of its Chinese competitors. Remember that it is already the most sold in Europe and the USA.


Victims of an anti-ecological policy, the USA saw its sales of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid cars fall to 75,000 units in the first quarter of 2020, representing less than 2.5% of the American market. Japan remains very fond of electric and plug-in hybrid cars that did not exceed 10,000 sales in the quarter.


In total, Tesla remains by far the leading manufacturer of electric cars over the period, ahead of the Volkswagen group which has not yet started production of the ID3, and ahead of Renault-Nissan which is clearly different from its pursuers.


20-10-7
    
 

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World production by manufacturers in the first quarter of 2020

The coronavirus crisis reduced the production volume of the vast majority of car manufacturers in the first quarter of 2020 but did not upset the ranking of the top twenty, each having suffered a comparable impact, with a few exceptions. If we exclude heavy goods vehicles, the Toyota group remains the world's leading manufacturer ahead of Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan, as in the first quarter of 2019.


Behind these three leaders, a notable change, the Hyundai-Kia group passes in front of the GM group which is collapsing in China.


Suddenly, the Ford group is behind the GM group globally, which had not happened in ages. GM thus fell to fifth place in the world, while this manufacturer remained the world's leading manufacturer between 1927 and 2004.


Behind, Honda retains its seventh place, ahead of FCA which has not suffered too much (it is not present in China) and PSA which has suffered a lot, even if it is very little present in China. The European market (main PSA market) suffered much more from the coronavirus crisis than the American market (main FCA market). Suzuki maintains its positions in tenth place, ahead of BMW and Daimler. Mazda supplants Geely but their volumes are very close. Subaru, which is one of the rare manufacturers to progress in 2020, passes Tata which suffers at the same time from the decline of the European market and that of the Indian market, while Subaru is not very present neither on the one nor on the other. Note that Tesla increases its production volume in 2020 compared to 2019, going from 82,000 units in the first quarter of 2019 to 89,000 in the first quarter of 2020.


20-10-8
    
 

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Electric car sales in Europe in the first quarter of 2020

Sales of 100% electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars almost doubled in Europe in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019, at 228,945 units compared to 125,848 units, while the European market for all engines combined collapsed by 26.3%. As a result, their market share increased from 3% to 7.5% in one year. This is much more than in China, where the share of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid cars did not exceed 4.5% in the first quarter of 2020. And it is obviously much more than in the United States where this market share did not exceed 2.5% according to an unhealthy policy advocated at the highest level of the state.


When we observe the evolution of this market by models, we note four important facts:


1 / The Tesla Model 3 remains the best-selling electric car in Europe, progressing slightly but just enough to supplant the Renault Zoé, second car in the ranking.


2 / The Renault Zoé almost doubled its sales in 2020, as a result of the launch of the new generation of the model last year and the growing demand for electric cars in Europe.


3 / The Peugeot 208 electric made a breakthrough in the first year of its commercialization. It already accounts for 40% of Renault Zoé's sales in Europe and has the luxury of overtaking the Nissan Leaf in the top 20.


4 / No Chinese model has yet succeeded in imposing itself on the European electric car market.



20-10-10
    
 

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Electric car sales in China in the first quarter of 2020

Sales of 100% electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars fell by 52.5% in China in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019, more than the Chinese market for all engines combined (-45.4 %). As a result, their market share is only 4.5% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 5.2% in the first quarter of 2019.


Sales volumes of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid cars in China totaled 129,150 units in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 271,673 units a year earlier.


When we observe the evolution of this market by models, we note three important facts:


1 / The Tesla Model 3 has become the best-selling electric car in China, tripling its sales between the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, which is a big surprise, since this American car has not at all suffered from trade tensions between the USA and China which strongly impacted the sales of GM and Ford on the Chinese market. Admittedly, the Tesla is produced in China but GM and Ford sold in China also.


2 / Traditional Chinese models have experienced vertiginous declines (notably BYD, BAIC, Chery and Geely). One can wonder about such a drop in sales for Chinese models that have sold well in recent years.


3 / The models of the new Chinese start-ups are making a nice breakthrough, like the NIO ES6, Lixiang One EV or HozonNeta N01. Other new models like the GAC Aion EV, SAIC MG eZS EV, BYD e2 or FAW Besturn B30 EV are also making a breakthrough.


20-10-9
    
 

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The Chinese market fell 45.4% in the first quarter of 2020

The Chinese automobile market for passenger cars decreased by 48.4% in March 2020 compared to March 2019, China is still handicapped by the coronavirus crisis, even if March marks a slight improvement compared to the previous month which had decreased by 81.7% compared to February 2019.


Assembly factories and car dealerships in China were able to restart in March, but at a slow and gradual pace, due to the introduction of health protections and drastic social distancing that is slowing production.


It is unclear today whether production fully meets market demand in China, or whether demand cannot be fully met due to insufficient production. In any case, production follows the pace of registrations with a drop of 49.8% in March 2020, after a drop of 82.9% in February 2020 and a drop of 28% in January 2020.


Over the cumulative period of 3 months 2020, the Chinese passenger car market fell by 45.4% while production fell by 48.7%.


Which brands fell the most during this first quarter of 2020 in China?


We observe that Renault collapsed by 89% and PSA by 82%. These are the two manufacturers most affected. We also note the poor scores of FCA (-66%), GM (-62%), Honda (-50%) who see their market share decrease. The VW (-44%), Nissan (-45%), Hyundai-Kia (-47%) and Mazda (-49%) groups are seeing their market share stabilize. Chinese manufacturers, Ford, Mercedes and BMW, on the other hand, are seeing their market share increase.


20-9-1
    
 

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