The United Arab Emirates purchased 218,000 vehicles in 2022
The United Arab Emirates is a federal state made up of seven emirates, the largest being Abu Dhabi. This federal state brings together nearly 10 million inhabitants. The automobile market represents on average between 200,000 and 400,000 new vehicles each year. In 2022, it reached 218,000 units, compared to 192,521 in 2021 and 152,235 in 2020, a year marked by the Covid-19 crisisThe year 2022 returns to the level of the years just before the Covid crisis, such as 2019 (215,977 sales) or 2018 (219,269 sales).
 
However, this figure is still only a nearly half of the previous peak with more than 400,000 units reached in 2015. Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE automobile market depends on fluctuating oil prices, since Emirates relies heavily on the production and sale of oil. The more prices increase, the richer the country is and can import and buy new vehicles. The more prices fall, the more the automobile market collapses. This is the situation observed between 2015 and 2020.
 
The composition of the market by brand has remained the same for several years, with a strong presence of Japanese brandsbut the Chinese MG belonging to the SAIC group entered the top 10, moving from 13th place in 2021 to 8th position in 2022, doubling practically its sales from one year to the next.
 
The best-selling model in 2022 is the Toyota Hilux pickup, with 13,640 units (6.3% of the market) ahead of the Nissan Patrol (11,212 units). Toyota places nine models in the Top 15 by model last year, which places the carmaker as the big market leader in the United Arab Emirates in 2022 (with 30.8% of the market).
BYD should confirm the construction of an assembly plant in Hungary
Chinese automaker BYD has announced it is in final negotiations with the Hungarian government to build an electric car assembly plant. BYD plans to produce electric cars and batteries at a factory in Szeged, in the south of the country. Remember that BYD already has an electric bus factory in Hungary (Komarom) but the company wants to set up another factory (much larger) to produce electric cars on a large scale and become the largest producer of electric vehicles in Europe, with a goal of selling one in ten electric cars sold in Europe by 2030 (i.e. approximately 500,000 units).
 
Hungary has seen battery carmakers set up on its territory for some time. The establishment of BYD in the country only strengthens the presence of the Chinese in Hungary.
 
BYD has quickly become the second largest producer of BEVs in the world (behind Tesla) and the first in China, a market in which it will become the sales leader for all engines combined, ahead of the Volkswagen group and the GM group. BYD thus sold 2,683,374 vehicles in China over the first 11 months of 2023, a figure compared to 2,723,854 sales of the Volkswagen group and 2,091,368 sales of the GM group (including Wuling). But while VW and GM are down compared to 2022, BYD is growing.
 
BYD had indicated a few months ago that it wanted to establish itself industrially in Europe, because this market is supposed to become fully electrified in 2035 and recent measures aimed at increasing the price of Chinese cars in several European countries have only encourages this decision. BYD will now follow its great rival Tesla in Europe, which has a factory there that can already produce 500,000 vehicles per year.
Chinese BEVs are no longer eligible to the ecological bonus in France
The new ecological bonus of 5,000 euros introduced in France from December 15, 2023, like the bonuses of previous years, helps promote the acquisition of zero-emission vehicles. But unlike the bonuses of previous years, the one put into practice from December 15, 2023 is more restrictive. Three criteria are taken into account: the total mass which must not exceed 2.4 t, the acquisition cost which must be less than 47,000 Euros and an environmental score, built in order to identify the most virtuous vehicles over its complete life cycle, which must be greater than 60 (on 80 maximum). The ADEME (French Agency for Ecological Transition) was appointed by the government to construct the environmental score and publish the list of eligible vehicles. It should be noted that a carmaker must submit a demand to be able to appear on the list of eligible models.
 
The application of these criteria has the consequence of excluding in particular most of the BEVs produced outside Europe (although with exceptions, such as the Mazda MX30 produced in Japan) but also the most expensive models and the heaviest produced in Europe, such as the Audi Q8 E-Tron, BMW iX, the Mercedes EQC, EQE and EQS, or the Rolls-Royce Specter (Note, however, the exception of the VW ID7 whose price far exceeds the 47,000 euros). The Tesla Model Y is on the list although a small share is produced in China.
 
This list will be regularly updated depending on new vehicle launches or the production on European territory of BEVs previously made in China, NAFTA or Japan.
Despite the loss of their bonus in France, Chinese BEVs will remain competitive
The prices of Chinese electric cars sold in Europe are lower than those proposed by European, Japanese or Korean competition. When we compare the price in France (without the bonus) of the MG 4 (C segment sedan) produced in China by the SAIC group to its best-selling European competitors in Europe, we observe a price difference of generally more than 10,000 euros.
 
Starting price (without bonus) in France of the following BEVs (in December 2023): Peugeot e-308 = 42,590 euros, Renault Mégane E-Tech = 38 000 euros, Volkswagen ID3 = 42,990 euros, Citroën e-C4 = 35 740 euros, MG 4 = 29 990 euros. If Chinese cars lose their bonus of 5,000 euros following the new regulations which will be applicable in France from 2024, there will remain a price difference of more than 5,000 euros in favour of Chinese cars. These will therefore remain competitive.
 
The upper segment Tesla Model 3 (D segment) is also offered at a very low price (starting price in France: 42,990 euros) because it is imported from China. Imported from the USA, its price would be much higher, the cost of labour being lower in China than in Europe or the USA. The BMW i4 (competitor of the Tesla Model 3) is priced starts at 57,550 euros in France.
 
We can ask ourselves whether producing in Europe, a region where labour costs are higher than in China, will be profitable for a carmaker already producing in China. Over the first 10 months of 2023, Chinese brands sold 275,000 cars in Europe (EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway), including more than 150,000 BEVs. Over the whole of 2023, we can expect 330,000 sales of Chinese cars including 180,000 BEVs.
Toyota plans to sell 180,000 LCVs in Europe in 2025
Toyota has just completed its European range of light utility vehicles with the ProAce Max which is a rebranded version of the Fiat Ducato, Peugeot Boxer, Citroën Jumper and Opel Movano (N1-3 segment) from which it takes platform and engines (thermal and 100% electric). This model completes the range of Toyota LUVs in Europe.
 
Thus, the range of Toyota LUVs sold in Europe is now organised around the ProAce City (N1-1), ProAce (N1-2) and ProAce Max (N1-3) derived from models from the Stellantis group, as well as the Hilux pick-up (Toyota design). The ProAce City is produced in Spain (Vigo), the ProAce in France (Hordain), the ProAce Max in Italy (Val di Sangro), the Hilux in Thailand.
 
Sales of Toyota LUVs increased from 46,000 units in 2016 to 140,000 in 2023, with their market share increasing from 2% to 6% over the period. The Japanese carmaker expects 180,000 LUV units in 2025 and a market share of 7% in Europe.
 
Concerning the share of electric in its LUV sales, Toyota is counting on 10% of sales made with this engine in 2025, thanks to the ProAce City, ProAce and ProAce Max offered in a batteyrelectric version.
 
The proportion of sales of LCVs in battery electric version is still low in Europe, around 6% in 2023 (compared to 83% of diesel engines, 6% of gasoline engines and 5% of hybrid engines) while it is approaching 16% among passenger car sales. We observe that Toyota wants to grow in electric as quickly in LCVs as in PCs.
 
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