Forecasts for BEV production in the UK in 2030
- 说明
Forecasts for BEV production in the UK in 2030
- Inovev estimates that between 167,000 and 207,000 electric vehicles (BEVs) could be produced in the UK by 2030. Currently, a total of five manufacturers are expected to make their mark on future BEV production in the UK: Renault-Nissan with the Nissan brand, BMW with the Mini brand, Tata with the Land Rover brand, Toyota and Stellantis with Citroën, Peugeot and the Opel brand, which will be marketed there under the name Vauxhall. All the British BEV production sites of these brands are located in England.
- According to Inovev, the largest BEV production is at the Nissan plant (part of the Renault-Nissan Group) in Sunderland, where the all-electric version of the Nissan Leaf is manufactured. The second largest BEV production in the country will likely be at the Ellesmere Port plant, which Stellantis and Toyota share. It's unclear what will happen to Mini's BEV production in Cowley, which could be the third largest in the country, as Mini plans to have its BEVs produced in China in the future. According to Inovev's forecasts, none of the sites mentioned will be able to reach a significant production volume of 100,000 BEVs or more by 2030.
- UK car production will face several challenges in the future. EU plans mean that the European market could be fully electrified from that date. Despite the Brexit, this market is critical to the UK automotive industry, but that same Brexit could make it more difficult for manufacturers and customers to produce and purchase BEVs due to import duties and controls. In addition, Britishvolt's Gigafactory project is under severe threat, which would put even more pressure on BEV production in the country. One wonders what the point of such a Gigafactory is with a future volume of less than 210,000 electric vehicles, which is less than Italy. Older British brands like Jaguar and MG have their BEVs manufactured abroad, Land Rover currently only offers PHEVs, but will set up small BEV production at the Halewood and Solihull sites. A departure of the Mini could further marginalize an already weak production. In short, the Brexit seems to put the UK's future automotive industry in jeopardy.
Evolution of the Indian market in 2022-2023
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Evolution of the Indian market in 2022-2023
- Among the Asian growth markets, the Indian automotive market is one of the most promising alongside the Chinese market. Since 2014, continuous growth has been observed, interrupted only by the Covid19 pandemic, which caused the market to shrink to less than 3 million vehicles sold by 2020. However, the market recovered as quickly as it collapsed, with growth rates of 28% in 2021 and 26% in 2022, scratching the 5 million mark by the end of 2022, which will most likely be exceeded in 2023, barring any disasters.
- The Indian automotive market benefits from the fact that it is not yet saturated. In 2019, the motorization rate was 225 vehicles per 1,000 habitants, and the population is growing rapidly every year. Moreover, this growing population is becoming more wealthy and moving to urban areas, which enables or requires the purchase of a car.
- The market is dominated by Japanese carmaker Suzuki, which alone holds 34% of the Indian market in 2022, followed by Indian carmaker Tata-Motors with 19% market share. Korean carmaker Hyundai-Kia has a market share of about 17%. These three carmakers, along with Mahindra and Ashok and Japanese carmakers Toyota and Honda, account for more than 91% of the market in 2022. Will Chinese carmakers succeed in breaking this physiognomy in 2023? The most successful Chinese brand to date is MG, with a market share of only 1%.
- Japanese dominance also affects xEVs sales (BEV+HEV+PHEV), which account for only less than 2% in the Indian market in 2022. 91% of xEVs sales are hybrid cars, a Japanese specialty, 9% are BEVs, and unlike Europe, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) hardly exist there. Cars with alternative engines still seem too expensive for this emerging market and the infrastructure for BEVs is not there. But India must look in this direction if it wants to tackle environmental problems with a population that could soon surpass China.
Production of BEVs in Italy 2030
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Production of BEVs in Italy 2030
- Inovev forecasts that Italy could produce around 192,000 electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030. As of today, there are no known BEV production facilities in the country other than those of the Stellantis Group.
- By far the largest production nationwide is likely to be in the Mirafiori plant near Turin, which produces the battery electric Fiat 500e. The Melfi plant could take several models from DS, Opel and Lancia, but Inovev forecasts that plant to produce only less than 90,000 by 2030.
- Still it is unclear whether Stellantis will have possible BEV models produced in Cassino by the Lancia brand, which is currently produced only in Poland but marketed only in Italy, or by the premium Alfa Romeo brand, especially as the plant would have to be rebuilt for this purpose. Alfa Romeo's conventional models are already produced in Cassino, but no plans have yet been announced for the brand's electrification.
- European car production is being converted to electric mobility due to various compelling factors, and future Italian car production depends almost entirely on a single group, Stellantis. More precisely, on a single model, the Fiat 500e, because its plant is the only one today that has a chance of achieving a significant production volume. If Cassino remain at their current levels, there will be only two sites capable of meeting European requirements for automotive production with alternative powertrains. The potential that currently emerges for 2030 is far below that of Spain (1.5 million BEVs), Germany (1.3 million BEVs) and France (827,000 BEVs).
A capacity of more than 1 million electric motors per year from 2024 for the Stellantis plant in Trémery
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A capacity of more than 1 million electric motors per year from 2024 for the Stellantis plant in Trémery
- Emotors, a 50/50 joint venture between Nidec Leroy-Somer and the Stellantis Group, designs and develops electric traction motors in France for the automotive industry. In particular, it produces three types of motors: a 48V permanent magnet motor with a power of 6 to 30 kW for MHEVs and electric small urban vehicles (Citroën eAmi for example), a 400V permanent magnet motor with an output range from 60 to 120 kW for plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and a 400V permanent magnet motor with an output range from 60 to 250 kW for battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
- In September 2022, Emotors launched a new production line in the Stellantis factory in Trémery (France) to produce a first electric motor named "M3" (115 kW) for Stellantis BEVs. It will then be followed the same year by an "M2" engine for the group's PHEVs. In 2023, according to Stellantis, an "M4" engine for BEVs will also be launched.
- Still according to Stellantis, the M3 engine will initially equip the DS3 e-Tense, Peugeot e208, Jeep Avenger and Opel Mokka models in early 2023. It will then equip the other models of the group gradually according to their launch. Eventually, the M3 engine should replace the ePWT engine that equips the group's BEVs in Europe.
- The production of gasoline and diesel engines, as well as the e-PWT engine is still maintained. The objective announced by Stellantis for the Trémery plant is to move in 2024 to a production of 50% of electric motors (compared to 15% in 2021), 30% of diesel engines (67% in 2021) and 20% of motors gasoline (18% in 2021). Finally, according to Stellantis, the group's objective is to produce more than one million electric motors (ePWT, M2, M3 and M4) from 2024.
- According to Inovev, 760,000 plug-in electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) will be produced by Stellantis in Europe in 2024. This capacity of more than one million engines per year therefore seems realistic and will meet the demand for the current electric models of the Stellantis group and the future models, including those from Lancia, Alfa-Romeo and Jeep. The plant could also supply other automotive groups, such as Toyota.
Production of BEVs in France in 2030
- 说明
Production of BEVs in France in 2030
- Inovev forecasts that France could produce around 827,000 electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030. Apart from Mercedes, Opel (part of the Stellantis Group) and Nissan (part of the Renault-Nissan Group), it is exclusively French brands that will produce their BEVs in France. What is striking is that production is entirely concentrated in the north and east of France.
- Inovev sees by far the greatest potential for BEV production at Renault-Nissan's Douai plant, which, aside from the Nissan Micra, will likely produce BEVs only for Renault. Maubeuge could have the second largest production potential, as it is equipped to handle four brands and produce passenger cars and light trucks. The Stellantis plant near Sochaux, close to the border between France, Germany and Switzerland, is the third plant that Inovev believes can produce more than 100,000 BEVs. Mulhouse, Poissy, and Valenciennes (all Stellantis plants) can likely reach production of 47,000 to 55,000 BEVs in 2030. The Alpine plant (which is part of the Renault-Nissan group) is likely to increase production volume somewhat by 2030, as Renault wants to give the brand a special role in its reorganization and launch a battery electric SUV. However, as the sporty character is to be maintained, the sales market and thus the production volume will remain modest.
- With the current announcements, France will still be far behind the BEV production of Spain (1.5 million BEVs) and Germany (1.3 million BEVs) in 2030.