Germany has lost its position as Europe's leading BEV market
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Germany has lost its position as Europe's leading BEV market
- As a result of the end of subsidies in Germany for the purchase of BEVs at the end of last year, this country has fallen behind the United Kingdom on the BEV market over the cumulative 3 months of 2024.
- The United Kingdom registered 84,314 BEVs over this period while Germany registered 81,337, just a little more than France (79,823 units). PHEV sales do not offset the losses on BEV sales as the United Kingdom registered 42,559 PHEVs during the first quarter of 2024 while Germany registered 44,985, which implies that the United Kingdom registered 126,873 plug-in vehicles (BEV+PHEV) while Germany registered 126,322.
- Certainly, the gap between the two countries is quite small – especially since the month of March is traditionally a important month in the United Kingdom in terms of registrations – but it is the first time since 2020 that Germany is no longer the European leader in sales of BEVs and plug-in vehicles (BEV+PHEV). However, we should wait for the results of the first 6 months of 2024 to see if this situation continues or if the first quarter of 2024 was just temporary.
- If we look at the overall market (all motorisation included), Germany and the United Kingdom were growing in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023, as the German market is growing by 4.2% over the period and the United Kingdom by 10.4%. The entire European market (31 countries) increased by 4.9% (France +5.7%, Italy +5.7%, Spain +3.1%, Poland +12.7%).
Towards a slowdown of the European BEV market?
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Towards a slowdown of the European BEV market?
- Is the European BEV automotive market slowing down? While the European market (31 countries) of battery electric vehicles (BEV) had increased by 29% in January 2024 compared to January 2023 (120,594 units compared to 93,653), had increased by only 10% in February 2024 compared to as of February 2023 (131,223 units compared to 118,831), the market declined by 11% in March 2024 compared to March 2023 (196,411 units compared to 220,778). These figures should be compared with those of the European market as a whole: +11.5% in January 2024, +10.2% in February 2024 and -2.8% in March 2024.
- Over the 3 months of 2024, the European BEV market remains positive (+3.5%) but the trend has been downward since March and even since the last days of February, mainly attributable to Germany which stopped subsidies for the purchase of BEVs at the end of last year. Germany thus saw its BEV sales fall by 29% in March 2024 compared to March 2023 and by 14% over the 3 months of 2024 compared to the 3 months of 2023. Germany thus lost 13,000 sales of BEV in March 2024 out of 24,000 across Europe and 13,000 sales over the 3 months of 2024 out of 15,000 across Europe. More worryingly, several other countries follow the same trend as Germany in March 2024, such as Italy (-34%), Norway (-48%), Finland (-36%), Sweden (-34%). %), Ireland (-41%), Slovenia (-38%), Greece (-24%), etc…
- The slowdown in the growth of BEV sales in Europe in 2023 is therefore nearly flat in the first quarter of 2024 which can be explained by the end of subsidies in certain countries and by the lack of affordable products.
- A new analysis will be made in July to see if the trend increases or reverses over the 6 months of 2024.
Tesla is experiencing its first difficulties
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Tesla is experiencing its first difficulties
- The world's leading carmaker of battery electric vehicles, Tesla, is experiencing its first difficulties, after several years of strong and uninterrupted growth. The Californian carmaker produced 1.85 million electric vehicles in 2023, compared to 1.37 million in 2022, 930 000 in 2021 and 500 000 in 2020.
- The start of 2024 marks a clear slowdown in production, with 401,000 vehicles produced in the first quarter compared to 408,000 in the first quarter of 2023. The most noticeable month, is March 2024 (97,000 units) down by 58,000 units. compared to March 2023, which is not entirely attributable to the one week pause of production in Berlin. More generally, Tesla saw its global deliveries drop by 8.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023. As a result, falling sales and stable production led to an increase in inventories which went from 21 days to 37 days (i.e. 160,000 cars). The carmaker could lay off 10% of its workforce, or 14,000 people. The question is whether this difficulty is specific to Tesla or whether it is a general trend e of the electric vehicle market.
- Tesla has difficulties to renew and expand its range. Model S is 12 years old (with an in-depth facelift in 2021), Model X is 9 years old (also deeply facelifted in 2021), Model 3 is 7 years old, and Model Y is 4 years old. The launch of the Model 2 was postponed to a later date and the incessant price changes eventually tired customers, prospects and fleet managers (like Hertz).
- Regarding the BEV market, it seems to be slowing down since February 2024, especially in countries that have ended subsidies for the purchase of BEVs such as Germany. Tesla is suffering from this slowdown, like other BEV carmakers.
Jaguar prepares its comeback in 2025
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Jaguar prepares its comeback in 2025
- The British Premium brand Jaguar, a subsidiary of the Indian group Tata Motors, within the JLR entity (formerly Jaguar Land Rover), is preparing its comeback in 2025 with a battery electric sedan.
- The thermal engine sedans XE (D-segment) and XF (E-segment), as well as the I-Pace SUV, will be withdrawn from the production program during the summer of 2025. The completely empty Jaguar range will then see the long-awaited heir to the iconic XJ sedan (1968-2019) appear but this time with a pure electric motorisation. For the moment, this model is known under the name GT 4 doors, but this name is probably not the one that will be chosen when the model will be marketed.
- The carmaker's objective is to rebuild a whole range of high-end battery electric sedans and SUVs between 2025 and 2030, able to compete both with German Premium carmakers (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) and with British luxury carmakers (Aston-Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce). The wish of Jaguar management is to position itself in terms of price and standing between these two groups of carmakers.
- As a result of this new direction, the Jaguar XE and E-Pace will not be replaced, as they are considered not luxury enough. Jaguar will no longer produce vehicles in C and D segments, but only in E and F segments. The race for volumes will be definitively abandoned to concentrate on a lower but more profitable production volume.
Mercedes ends production of the Smart Fortwo
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Mercedes ends production of the Smart Fortwo
- Mercedes ended production of the battery electric Smart Fortwo on March 29, 2024, which remained the only model of the Smart brand still produced in Europe, after the end of the Smart Fortwo with a thermal engine and the Smart Forfour with a thermal engine and battery electric.
- The Smart Fortwo (A-segment sedan) which was produced in France (in Hambach) since 1998 was the shortest model in European automobile production (excluding L6/L7 segment cars), with a length of 2.70 m (2.50 m for the first models). Its weight did not exceed 850 kilos in the thermal version and 1,150 kilos in the electric version (750 kilos in the thermal version for the first models). In total, more than 2.2 million Smart Fortwos were produced and sold, but it appears that the model was never profitable for the carmaker due to sales below 100,000 units per year on average, while the targets were set at 150,000 units per year.
- The future of the brand now depends on the battery electric models #1 and #3 produced in China (in Xi'an, in Shaanxi province) by the Geely group in JV with Mercedes. But these models are part of a completely different universe: #1 measures 4.27 m long and weighs 1,800 kilos, while #3 measures 4.40 m long and weighs 1,900 kilos. In reality, #1 is positioned in the B-segment and #3 in the C-segment. There will probably be no more Smarts in the A-segment, for profitability reasons.
- It will be interesting to know whether customers of these models will continue to use this type of cars or towards which models they will move in the future, given that the A-segment has been shrinking for several years, following the withdrawal of most models.
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