The BMW X1 now largely overtakes the 1 Series
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The BMW X1 now largely overtakes the 1 Series
- Launched in 2004 and renewed several times, the BMW 1 Series is a C-segment premium sedan competing with the Mercedes A-Class and Audi A3. The first-generation X1 SUV derived from it was launched in 2009. The first X1 SUV didn’t overtake the 1 Series sedan in terms of sales, which was however achieved with the generation of the X1 that appeared in 2015.
- While in 2016, the production volume of the X1 and 1 Series was practically identical (180,000 units for each model), the following years saw the gap between the production of the two models increase, in favour of the X1 SUV. From 0 units in 2016, this gap increased to 20,000 in 2017, 30,000 in 2018, 48,000 in 2019, 74,000 in 2021 and 114,000 in 2023. The production volume of the X1 reached 220,000 units in 2023, compared to 180,000 in 2021 and 2016.
- At the same time, the production volume of the 1 Series sedan collapsed: from 180,000 units in 2016, 172,000 in 2017, 155,000 in 2018, 131,000 in 2019, 124,000 in 2020, 104,000 in 2021, 81,000 in 2022. The year 2023 marks a slight progress (106,000 units), but far from the figures of 2006-2016.
- The BMW sedan customer basis has shifted mainly to SUVs as with many other carmakers. There is already talk of not replacing the 1 Series launched in 2024 and which should continue its career until 2030. BMW seems to be proceeding in the same way as Mercedes, which will abandon A-Class (C-segment) next year.
The Mercedes GLC has now largely supplanted the C-Class
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The Mercedes GLC has now largely supplanted the C-Class
- The various generations of the Mercedes C-Class (D-segment sedan) have consistently been among the brand’s best-sellers, at least in Europe, until the mid-2010s. From 2015 onwards, the launch of the Mercedes GLC SUV (based on the C-Class) took an increasingly large share of the brand’s European sales, competing the C-Class. As with many carmakers, the sedan customer base gradually shifted to SUVs, and sales of the GLC eventually overtook those of the C-Class in Europe in 2018.
- In addition, exports of the C-Class to China have gradually declined as they have been replaced by local production. The gap in sales and production between the GLC and the C-Class has continued to grow in Europe ever since. From 25,000 units in 2018, it rose to 47,000 in 2019, 70,000 in 2020 and 110,000 in 2023.
- In 2023, only 77,000 C-Classes were produced in Europe (in Bremen, Germany) while the production of the GLC (in the same factory) reached 187,000 units. In 2024, there is no upheaval in terms of production. As a result, the replacement of the C-Class planned for 2028 becomes problematic.
- The launch of the EQC in 2019, which is the battery electric version of the GLC, has not really moved the lines. In low demand (it will never exceed 20,000 units per year), the EQC is definitively abandoned at the end of 2023. It should be replaced in 2026 by two different EQCs (a sedan and an SUV). As for the Mercedes GLC, it has become the brand's most produced model in Europe since 2022.
Ford to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe
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Ford to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe
- American carmaker Ford has announced that it will cut 4,000 jobs in Europe (including 2,900 in Germany and 800 in the United Kingdom), or nearly 15% of its workforce on this continent. This plan is in addition to the plan concerning the 3,800 jobs cut announced last year, which already represented nearly 15% of its workforce in Europe. In total, nearly 30% of Ford Europe's jobs will be cut by 2027.
- Ford has continued to lose market share in Europe (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) since the 1990s. While the American carmaker held a 12% market share in Europe for passenger car sales, it will only hold 4% in 2024, which means that it has lost two-thirds of its market share in thirty years. The other two American carmakers, GM and Chrysler, also experienced a decline in their influence in Europe at the time, with the Chrysler group having to sell its European subsidiaries to PSA in 1978 and the GM group having to sell its own to PSA in 2017.
- As in their own market (the US market), the GM, Ford and Chrysler groups have faced strong competition from Japanese and then Korean carmakers, but also from European carmakers, whether mainstream or premium.
- Ford's strategy of stopping production of its sedans, both in Europe and the US, has accentuated Ford's decline and the launch of its first battery electric vehicles has not been a great success so far. There are only 23,000 units in the cumulative first 10 months of 2024, or an estimated volume of 30,000 sales over 12 months in the best case scenario, which is clearly insufficient for the current capacities of the Cologne (Germany) plant. The end of subsidies in Germany for the purchase of battery electric vehicles has not helped Ford to develop its BEV sales as it would have liked. Most of the 2,900 jobs lost in Germany will be at the Cologne site which assembles the Explorer EV / Capri EV and currently employs 11,500 people.
The gap between the production volume of the VW Golf and the Audi A3 has never been so small
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The gap between the production volume of the VW Golf and the Audi A3 has never been so small
- The Volkswagen Golf, which remained the most produced and best-selling car in Europe for several decades, began to decline in 2017, when the Volkswagen T-Roc compact SUV was launched, which took over the engines and dimensions of the Golf to within a few centimetres. This model, produced and sold at 200,000 units per year between 2018 and 2023, certainly took a bite out of the Golf, while the slightly more imposing Tiguan SUV produced between 2007 and 2016 had not really bothered the Golf.
- The second generation of the Tiguan SUV (produced between 2016 and 2023) took a bigger bite out of the Golf, but it was mainly the launch of the eighth generation of the Golf that accentuated the decline of the model. This generation had little success.
- Finally, the launch of the 100% electric Volkswagen ID3 and ID4 in 2020 impacted part of the Golf's sales (around 100,000 units per year) because part of the Golf's customer base was undoubtedly convinced by the electric engine.
- If we add together the transfer of part of the Golf's customer base to the T-Roc and the second-generation Tiguan, as well as the failure of the eighth generation of the Golf and the launch of the ID3/ID4, we can explain the drop in sales of the Golf, which gradually fell from 762,000 units in 2016 to 627,000 in 2018, 536,000 in 2019, 328,000 in 2020 and 255,000 in 2023.
- As a result, the Golf has come close to the figures recorded in Europe by its Premium version, the Audi A3, which has indeed fallen by half between 2016 and 2021, going from 300,000 to 150,000 units per year, but this 50% drop is much lower than that recorded by the Golf, which reached almost 75% during the same period (a loss of 555,000 units). In 2023, the Audi A3 was produced at 172,000 units.
BYD develops its upper segment in Europe : launch of the Sealion
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BYD develops its upper segment in Europe : launch of the Sealion
- Among the Chinese carmakers that sold a total of 301,176 BEVs in Europe (30 countries = EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) in the first 9 months of 2024 (compared to 279,511 units in the first 9 months of 2023, representing an increase of 8%), BYD sold 28,723 BEVs in Europe in the first 9 months of 2024, which represents a tripling of its sales compared to the first 9 months of 2023, but BYD remains far behind MG (a subsidiary of the SAIC group) which sold 177,634 over the same period. BYD is therefore now the second Chinese seller of BEVs in Europe, far behind MG.
- The BYD models range is still relatively limited compared to that offered in China, since it consists of the Atto 3 (C-segment SUV), Dolphin (C-segment sedan), Seal (D-segment sedan), Seal U (D-segment SUV – PHEV), Han (E-segment sedan) and Tang (E-segment SUV). Note the notable absence of the Seagull (B-segment sedan), the third best-selling BEV in the world (see previous analysis).
- To complete its European range, BYD is launching the Sealion at the end of the year, a D-segment SUV-BEV that adapts the low and sporty lines of the Seal sedan to a mid-class SUV. The Sealion SUV is 4.83 m long compared to 4.78 m for the Seal U SUV and 4.80 m for the Seal sedan. The Sealion competes with the Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Kia EV6, as well as the Peugeot e-3008 and Volkswagen ID5. The Sealion is powered by a 308 hp electric motor supplied in electricity by an 82.5 kWh NMC battery allowing a range of 480 km according to the WLTP cycle. A 522 hp version will also be offered with four-wheel drive and a 91.3 kWh NMC battery allowing a range of 500 km according to the WLTP cycle.
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