A split within the Stellantis group is a possible hypothesis
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A split within the Stellantis group is a possible hypothesis
- Former Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has expressed concerns about the balance between the three pillars of the carmaker, which comprises 14 different brands: France (ex-PSA Group = Peugeot-Citroën-DS-Opel-Vauxhall), Italy (ex-Fiat Group = Fiat- Abarth -Alfa Romeo, Lancia, Maserati) and the United States (ex-Chrysler Group = Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram), which could be weakened if internal tensions between these three pillars are not better managed.
- Tavares insists that the group's survival in its current form will depend on constant attention to its unity to prevent it from being pulled in multiple directions at once. Otherwise, he foresees a split between the European and American branches, which is equivalent to a resurrection of the Chrysler group, the former third-largest automaker in the Big Three. This would allow each division to refocus on its market, similar to what General Motors and Ford are doing.
- It is said that today, the main profit center of the Stellantis group is its American division (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram), and while the group's diversity is a strength, it is also a source of managerial and cultural complexity, especially when national interests diverge. The group's current CEO, Antonio Filosa, announced $13 billion in investments in the United States, while making no announcements for Europe, which is causing concern among Europeans. Inovev believes that a split of the Stellantis group remains a possibility, as happened in the past with DaimlerChrysler or BMW-Rover.
The Indian market surpassed the Japanese market in 2024
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The Indian market surpassed the Japanese market in 2024
- The volume of the Indian car market surpassed that of the Japanese car market in 2024, and the gap between the two markets widened in 2025.
- In 2024, 4,274,789 passenger cars were sold in India, compared to 3,725,200 units in Japan. In the first nine months of 2025, 3,128,000 passenger cars were sold in India, while Japan purchased 2,465,000 units. This means that the gap between the two markets, which was approximately 550,000 units in 2024, widened to 663,000 units in the first nine months of 2025, and this gap is expected to widen further by the end of the year. The graph below, which shows the monthly sales curve for passenger cars in India and Japan, clearly demonstrates that sales in India eventually surpassed those in Japan starting from 2024.
- It is clear that the sales potential is greater in India than in Japan, firstly because of India's significantly larger population (the ratio is approximately 12 to 1), and secondly because the Japanese market is saturated, leading to stagnation for several decades, while the Indian market is still developing due to a very low motorization rate. A common feature of these two markets is the high proportion of small A-segment cars (Kei cars in Japan): 0.5 million in India in 2024 (12% of the market) and 1.2 million in Japan (32% of the market). In Europe, the A-segment represented 5% of the market in 2024 and 4% in 2025.
BEVs will represent 28% of the Chinese market in 2025
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BEVs will represent 28% of the Chinese market in 2025
- Based on passenger car sales figures recorded in China for the first nine months of 2025 and forecasts for the fourth quarter of the year, the market share of BEVs in China will reach 28% for the whole of this year, compared to 26% for the whole of 2024.
- BEV sales in China have been steadily growing since 2020, with their market share increasing from 21% in 2022 to 24% in 2023, 26% in 2024, and a projected 28% in 2025. At this rate, this market share could reach 30% of the Chinese market by 2026, as we do not expect BEV sales to dramatically accelerate next year despite an increasingly wide range of options and a price war that is making BEVs cheaper to buy. At the same time, this price war could force some smaller BEV carmakers to throw in the towel and reduce their offerings.
- Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs, including Range Extended Electric Vehicles or REEVs) appear to have halted their spectacular sales growth, as Inovev forecasts they will represent 19% of the Chinese market in 2025, the same as in 2024, whereas 2024 had marked a clear take-off in PHEV sales compared to 2022 and 2023, their market share not exceeding 11% of the Chinese market in 2023 and only 7% in 2022.
- Non-rechargeable hybrids (F-HEV) are far behind, with a market share of 4% in 2025, a slight increase compared to previous years which recorded a market share of 3%.
BEVs will represent 8% of the US market in 2025
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BEVs will represent 8% of the US market in 2025
- According to passenger car sales figures recorded in US for the first nine months of 2025, the market share of BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) will reach 8% for the year as a whole, compared to 8% for the whole of 2024. This represents a significant stagnation, likely due, among other factors, to the Trump administration's new policy of relaxing CO2 standards and suspending restrictions on the purchase of internal combustion engine vehicles. This will shift demand from electric vehicles to internal combustion engine vehicles, thus reducing electric vehicle sales. The suspension of tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and subsidies for the construction of charging stations will exacerbate this trend.
- Internal combustion engine vehicles (including MHEVs not detailed in US statistics) will still represent the vast majority of vehicle sales (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) in the US in 2025, accounting for 79% of the market. This is a decrease compared to previous years (80% in 2024, 82% in 2023, and 87% in 2022). However, this trend reflects a slowdown of the decline year after year, and the new measures taken by the Trump administration will accentuate this phenomenon, potentially leading to a reversal of the situation with a renewed increase in the market share of internal combustion engine vehicles in 2026.
- The only growth area observed in the US so far, non-plug-in hybrid vehicles (F-HEVs), have increased from 6% of the US market in 2022 to 8% in 2023, 10% in 2024 and 11% in 2025. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are not growing.
BEVs will represent 18% of the European market in 2025
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BEVs will represent 18% of the European market in 2025
- According to passenger car sales figures recorded in Europe (30 countries = EU + UK + Norway + Switzerland) for the first nine months of 2025, the market share of BEVs in Europe will reach 18% for the whole of this year, compared to 16% for the whole of 2024.
- This is a welcome surprise after a 2024 marked by stagnant BEV sales, with their market share capped at 16%, whereas 2023 saw strong growth, with their market share rising from 14% to 16%. Logically, market share should have reached 18% in 2024 and 20% in 2025, based on the 2023 growth rate.
- Even though BEV sales growth resumed in 2025, at the same pace as in 2023, 2025 is two percentage points behind the expected growth. Therefore, 2026 will need to make up this shortfall so that BEVs reach a 22% market share by the end of the year. The growth in sales of small electric cars could help achieve this goal.
- Petrol engines still account for the largest share of passenger car sales in Europe, at 30% (a figure that has been steadily declining for several years), followed by mild hybrids (MHEVs), with 25% of the market, a figure that has been steadily increasing for several years. Non-plug-in hybrids (F-HEVs) represent 10% of the market, a figure that has been steadily increasing for several years, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) account for 9% of the market (a slight increase compared to 2023 and 2024), and diesel vehicles represent 8% of the market (a figure that has been steadily declining for several years).
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