Chinese passenger car market grew by 3% over 9 months of 2024
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Chinese passenger car market grew by 3% over 9 months of 2024
- The Chinese passenger car market grew by 3% in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to the first 9 months of 2023, to 18,676,109 units against 18,128,133, which is a better result than that recorded in the other two major global markets, +1% in Europe and +0.4% in the United States. As a result, the gap is widening between China and these two other markets: 9,779,605 units in Europe (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) and 9,658,402 units in the USA. However, there is a slowdown of the Chinese market growth (as in Europe and the USA), as growth had reached 6.8% over the first 9 months of 2023 compared to the first 9 months of 2022 and +6.3% over the first 6 months of 2024 compared to the first 6 months of 2023. And growth is only 1.5% in September 2024. A slowdown can be expected between October and December 2024, with the whole year potentially ending at +2.5%.
- The share of Chinese carmakers (including Wuling and Baojun, counted by GM in the GM group) is at its highest, reaching 65% of total passenger car sales in China in the first 9 months of 2024, and even 68% in September 2024.
- As a result, the Volkswagen group is now largely outpaced by the Chinese group BYD, with a market share that does not exceed 10.2% compared to 14.6% for BYD, while it had been the leader of the Chinese market with a large lead over its competitors for several decades. The most dramatic case is that of the GM group (including Wuling and Baojun) which fell to 5% market share while it was following the VW group in second place in the market for several decades. In 2024, the GM group is now in seventh place, behind BYD, Volkswagen, Geely, Chery, Changan and Toyota.
BYD is transitioning from a pure BEV to an NEV producer
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BYD is transitioning from a pure BEV to an NEV producer
- In a BEV market that represents 24.6% of the Chinese passenger car market (4,554,601 BEVs) in the first nine months of 2024, BYD Group registered 1,166,079 BEVs (25% of the BEV market) and remains the leader in BEV sales in China ahead of Tesla (675,758 units, 15% of the BEV market). This is followed by Geely Group (390,142 units), GM Group (369,930 units, including 308,323 Wuling units), GAC Group (226,964 units), Changan Group (193,632 units), Chery Group (151,996 units), NIO Group (149,281 units) and Volkswagen Group (145,027 units). Behind them are the Leapmotor (127,337 units), SAIC (106,751 units) and Dongfeng (104,791 units) groups. The German premium brands (BMW and Mercedes) recorded much lower sales (less than 100,000 for BMW and less than 50,000 for Mercedes).
- What is the share of electrification (BEV) in each of the major automotive groups in 2024 in China? Tesla is the carmaker that records the largest share of BEV in its sales with 100% like NIO, Xiaomi and Xpeng which are the only Chinese carmakers to produce only BEVs. Next are Leapmotor (75% BEV), Hozon (73%), Jiangling (69%), GAC (45%), BAIC (44%) and BYD (43%). Contrary to popular belief, BYD currently sells more PHEVs than BEVs.
- Other carmakers sell less than 40% of BEVs in their sales in China, such as Dongfeng (39%), GM (39%), FAW (23%), Geely (23%), SAIC (20%) and of course the German Premium brands (BMW and Mercedes) which sell less than 20% of BEVs in their sales in China for BMW and even less than 10% of BEVs for Mercedes. The most disappointing result is that of the Volkswagen group which sells only 8% of BEVs in its sales in China in 2024.
China incites its carmakers to curb investments in Europe
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China incites its carmakers to curb investments in Europe
- The Chinese government seems to be reviewing its strategy on the development in Europe of Chinese carmakers under its control. It is said to have incited the interruption of discussions on new projects and the refusal to sign new agreements. The message was well received by Chinese public carmakers, such as Dongfeng, which has just announced that it was pausing its factory project in Italy. Several parameters have been highlighted by the Chinese government:
1. Chinese electric cars are facing strong opposition from certain European governments.
2. Sales of Chinese cars are not reaching the level hoped for in Europe. Despite their competitive price compared to their similar European competitors and despite their other intrinsic qualities, they are struggling to convince the European customer, their market share (all engine market) not reaching 3% in 2024, marking very little progress compared to 2023. The 10% market share predicted by Inovev in its studies is still a long way off.
- At the same time, a 10% market share of Chinese carmakers in Europe in 2030 would inevitably lead to a drop in sales of 1.5 million cars by traditional European brands (and also Japanese and Korean brands), which would lead to factory closures and brand closures.
- For the Chinese government, the European market remains a complex one, with tastes and needs that vary from one country to another. The Chinese government could therefore favour the development of its carmakers rather outside Europe, such as in Turkey, South America, Australia, South-East Asia and the Middle East, where these carmakers are already enjoying some success.
The Leapmotor B10 SUV will probably be assembled at Opel in Eisenach
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The Leapmotor B10 SUV will probably be assembled at Opel in Eisenach
- The Chinese carmaker Leapmotor, 20% owned by the Stellantis group since last year, presented four of its battery electric models (B10, C10, C16, T03) at the "Paris Motor Show" in October 2024. One of these models, the T03 city car (A segment), has already been assembled in CKD (level of integration deemed however not sufficient to obtain the French bonus) since June 2024 on the Stellantis (ex-Fiat) plant in Tichy, alongside the Fiat 600, Alfa-Roméo Junior and Jeep Avenger.
- A second model, the B10 SUV (C segment), was supposed to be assembled on this plant from the end of this year, but Poland's vote in favour of additional taxes on Chinese electric cars exported from China to Europe may have change this plan, probably on the recommendation of the Chinese government. Finally, the Leapmotor B10 SUV will be produced in Europe for the European market, but in a country that voted against the additional taxes and which also has a Stellantis factory. The choice will therefore fall either on Germany (Eisenach) or on Slovakia (Trnava).
- Inovev believes that the choice will rather fall on Eisenach which has significant overcapacity (60,000 cars produced in 2023 and as many in 2024 on a capacity of 200,000 units per year) and which already assembles a C-segment SUV, the Opel Grandland, including in a battery electric version. The Trnava site is for its part brought to a rapid saturation of its production capacities due to the production of all the Citroën C3, Citroën C3 Aircross and Opel Frontera.
- It is very difficult to predict the number of Leapmotor B10 that will be produced in Europe. Everything will depend on the success of the model and whether or not Stellantis wants to develop sales of the Chinese brand. However, we can consider that this model will have to make itself known, as for other Chinese models, which allows us to imagine a slow but continuous progression between 2025 and 2035. If the success of the model is confirmed, a volume of 50,000 units assembled in Europe in 2035 is a plausible hypothesis.
Will Dongfeng finally open a factory in Italy?
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Will Dongfeng finally open a factory in Italy?
- Following Italy's vote in favour of an additional tax on battery electric vehicles imported from China, the Chinese carmaker Dongfeng, which had planned to build an assembly plant in Italy to produce its own models, according to an agreement signed in early August 2024 with the Italian government, has just announced that it is reconsidering this project, probably due the slower than expected development of the electric vehicle market in Europe but perhaps also following Italy's vote in favour of the European Union's additional tax system.
- If this project is cancelled, it would be damaging for the Italian automobile industry, which needs to revive production on its soil. Several hundred thousand vehicles could be produced locally, in addition to the 800,000 produced annually today (mainly by Stellantis).
- Given that Chinese vehicles produced in Europe are not subject to the additional taxes, this decision appears to be an additional weight in favour of the Chinese in the balance of negotiations between the European Union and China.
- The possible questioning of this factory could allow Dongfeng to consider another more accommodating European country, such as Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic or Slovakia, these countries having voted against the additional taxes proposed by the European Union. At the same time, Dongfeng's position is part of a context in which the Chinese government has more generally asked to reconsider the positions of Chinese carmaker s and European governments on new projects. It is still unknown whether this directive could affect projects already well advanced such as BYD in Hungary, Chery in Spain or even Leapmotor in Poland.
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