Production achievements: Germany 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
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Production achievements: Germany 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
- A quarter of German car production is sold in Germany each year.
The level of the German market therefore has a certain importance on the volume of local production.
The level of the German market therefore has a certain importance on the volume of local production.
- The German market grew in 2015 (+ 5.6%) and in 2016 (+ 4.6%).
For 2017, Inovev expects a quasi-stagnation (+ 1.5%) of the German market.
For 2017, Inovev expects a quasi-stagnation (+ 1.5%) of the German market.
- Taking into account this parameter and, in addition, the volume of exports expected in 2017, in a world market whose growth will decrease (Chinese market growth lower due to the end of part of reductions tax reductions on small cars, the US market at the end of a cycle, a slowdown in the European market after three consecutive years of growth), we can expect a German car production stagnating in 2017, the production remaining however at a very high level (6 million units, close to that of the years 2014, 2015 and 2016).
- Germany will thus remain by far the leading European car producer country, far ahead of Spain, France and Great Britain.
As Inovev had foreseen in the analysis of 3 May 2016, German car production is likely to grow by close to 0% for the whole of 2016, with growth of only 0.8 % over the first 10 months of the year (and it is known that the last two months of the year will not be excellent in terms of market).
As Inovev had foreseen in the analysis of 3 May 2016, German car production is likely to grow by close to 0% for the whole of 2016, with growth of only 0.8 % over the first 10 months of the year (and it is known that the last two months of the year will not be excellent in terms of market).
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Production achievements: France 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
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Production achievements: France 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
- One quarter of French car production is sold in France each year.
The level of the French market therefore has a certain importance on the volume of local production.
The level of the French market therefore has a certain importance on the volume of local production.
- The French market grew in 2015 (+ 6.8%) and in 2016 (+ 5.0%), in comparison to previous years.
For 2017, Inovev expects a lower growth (+ 2.5%) in the French market.
For 2017, Inovev expects a lower growth (+ 2.5%) in the French market.
- Taking into account this parameter, and, in addition, the volume of exports expected in 2017 , in a world market whose growth will decrease in 2017, the pace of cruising of the novelties produced in France and launched in 2016 (Peugeot 3008, Peugeot 5008, Citroën Jumpy, Peugeot Expert, Toyota Proace, Fiat Talento, Renault Scenic, Nissan NV300, Nissan Micra, Alpine Berlinette and Citroën e-Mehari), a production increase by 4% can be expected in 2017, and this in spite of the transfer of the Citroën C3 from Poissy (France) to Trnava (Slovakia).
- France will thus remain far behind Germany and Spain in terms of volume production, and will still remain very far from its levels reached in the early 2000s. But the volume which should be reached in 2017 will still be the best recorded since 2011. In the 10 first months of 2016, French car production increased by 2% (instead of the 5% expected for the whole year), as some models announced in 2015 started in 2016 later than expected, which has shifted in time their production rise.
However, growth is expected to increase by the end of December.
However, growth is expected to increase by the end of December.
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European plants are the ones with the highest utilization rates
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European plants are the ones with the highest utilization rates
- Into all of the 100 European car plants, around 20 will have very high capacity utilization rates (standard definition of capacity enabling utilization rates to be higher than 100%) in 2016 (superior or equal to 100%). This is due to the fact that the European market has experienced strong growth since 2015, premium carmakers are experiencing even stronger growth, no carmaker has built new plants in this region in 2016, and even some carmakers (Opel, Ford) have closed plants in the last two years.
- Into the 21 European factories with a utilization rate equal to or greater than 100% of their capacity in 2016, 8 belong to premium carmakers. Mercedes, which became this year the first premium carmaker in terms of product volume, has 4 saturated plants, plus Valmet in Finland which manufactures its models. The transfer of part of the C-Class to the USA was not sufficient., The carmaker will increase its capacity at Kecskemét and release capacity in Düsseldorf (departure of Crafter to a VW plant located in Poland). Land Rover has a saturated plant in Solihull. It will release capacity by transferring production of the Jaguar XE from Solihull to Castle Bromwich and complete the construction of its plant in Slovakia.
- General carmakers Renault and Volkswagen also have saturated plants (5 plants for the first and 3 for the second), as their European production increased significantly in 2016. If the European market is still progressing in 2017, these two carmakers will need to increase their capacity.
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Production achievements: Japan 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
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Production achievements: Japan 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
- Half of cars produced by Japanese carmakers in Japan are sold in Japan (i.e 4.5 million vehicles out of 9 million manufactured in Japan on average in recent years), which means that the domestic market has a great impact on the production of Japanese carmakers in Japan. Especially since imports play a marginal role in vehicle sales in Japan (less than 10% of total sales).
- The Japanese market experienced two very negative years in 2015 and 2016 (-9.3% in 2015 and -2.5% in 2016).
These two consecutive declines have had a direct impact on automobile production, which has declined in the last two years (-5% in 2015 and -5.6% in 2016).
These two consecutive declines have had a direct impact on automobile production, which has declined in the last two years (-5% in 2015 and -5.6% in 2016).
- For 2017, however, we can expect a relaunch in Japanese production, partly due to the likely recovery in the Japanese market (which is starting to show signs of recovery since last summer), arrival of novelties produced locally, and also the continuous growth of markets in Southeast Asia which are supplied in part, by Japanese production.
- Inovev forecasts a production of 9.14 million vehicles in Japan in 2017, compared with a volume of 8.76 million in 2016 (extrapolated over 10 months), which represents an increase of 4.4% in one year on the other.
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Production achievements: China 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
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Production achievements: China 10 months 2016 and forecast 2017
- Chinese automotive production (PC + UV) continues to be the locomotive of the global automotive industry, and even strengthens its position, with an increase of 14.9% over the first 10 months of 2016 compared to the first 10 months of 2015 (+ 13.9% over 10 months). This strong growth is in particular a consequence of local measures concerning small and compact cars (tax reduction on these vehicles) which boosted the domestic market (+ 13.9% over 10 months). China thus accounts for 28% of world production in 2016, compared with only 27% in 2015.
- When analyzing the growth in vehicle sales in China, the market began to grow strongly from March 2016 (after a chaotic period between February 2015 and February 2016). The increase continued until September 2016 (+ 26.6%) and is now tending to return to lower growth (+ 19.3% in October 2016).
- The tax reduction measures for small and compact cars will be partially renewed in 2017. Consequently Inovev expects in 2017 a production increasing by 5% to 27,8 million vehicles.
- By carmaker, the VW group positioned itself again ahead of the GM group in 2016 (3.7 million units against 3.5 million), Hyundai-Kia (1.6 million), Changan (1.2 million), Renault-Nissan (1.1 million), Honda (1.1 million), Toyota (1 million), Ford (0.85 million), Great Wall (0.85 million) and Geely (0.7 million).
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