Diesel engine installation rate falls to 33% in Europe in the first half of 2019
The diesel rate on new passenger car (PC) sales continues to decline in Europe. It fell to 33% at the end of the first half of 2019, from 36% in 2018, 45% in 2017 and 50% in 2016. In three years, it has decreased from half to a third of passenger car registrations.

The consequences of "dieselgate",  i.e. increasingly stringent regulations on diesel engines, reduction of the price gap between petrol and diesel  engines  repeated announcements of a ban on diesel in some cities ,and even the  threat of abolition of diesel in a relatively short period of time, all  lead customers to turn away from diesel cars.

If we compare the market shares in the first half of 2019 between petrol, diesel, BEV, HEV and PHEV we obtain this classification: petrol dominates with 58.8% of the market,  then comes diesel with 33%, hybrids (HEV) with 4.8%, 100% electric (BEV) with 2.2% and rechargeable hybrids (PHEV), which are more reserved for high-end models ,with 1.1%.

Recent vehicle purchases have shifted to petrol engines (+2.7%), but also to hybrid engines (+33.6%). The market share of 100% electric vehicles remains low despite an increase in sales (+88.5%).

Plug-in hybrid sales, on the other hand, declined by 4.7%. It should be noted, however, that the fall in diesel car sales is slowing sharply in Spain and Germany, while it remains significant in France, Italy and Great Britain, with the largest drop recorded in Great Britain.


    
 

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British passenger car production fell by 22.5% in the first half of 2019
British passenger car (PC) production fell by 22.5% in the first half of 2019, after having already fallen by 8.9% over the whole of 2018, and by 2.9% over the whole of 2017. These poor performances are obviously linked to the uncertainties regarding Brexit.

The production volume of passenger cars in Great Britain (the production of commercial vehicles having become marginal) has decreased from 1.72 million units in 2016 to 1.67 million in 2017 and 1.52 million in 2018. In the first half of 2019, it was only 650,000 units compared to 830,000 in the first half of 2018.

At this rate, the production volume for the whole of 2019 could be less than 1.25 million units.

And the hardest part is yet to come, since Honda announced the closure of its Swindon plant in 2021 and PSA will probably close its Ellesmere Port plant at the same time. In addition, BMW is seriously considering closing its Cowley plant, as the Minis manufactured there can be transferred to plants in Holland and Hungary.

Toyota still has the possibility to transfer Corolla production to its factories in Turkey and the Czech Republic. Jaguar-Land Rover could transfer part of its production to its new plant in Slovakia.

There remains the case of Nissan, whose Sunderland plant has divested itself of the production of the Infiniti and the planned X-Trail. This plant is the largest in Britain and its fate is therefore crucial for the future of the British automotive industry.


    
 

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Spanish passenger car production was stable in the first half of 2019
Spanish passenger car production was stable in the first half of 2019, at 1.3 million units, compared with an increase of 1.2% for the full year 2018.

Since 2015, Spanish production has stagnated at a volume of nearly 2.3 million units, which is still a peak since production began in the country in the 1950s.

Spain is benefiting from the relocations of French (Renault, PSA) and German (Volkswagen, Ford Europe) automakers.

Thus, the manufacture of the Renault Mégane, Captur and Kadjar, the Opel Corsa, Combo and Crossland, the Citroën C3 Aircross,

C4 Cactus and Berlingo, the Peugeot Partner, the Volkswagen Polo and T-Cross, Audi A1, Seat Arona, Ibiza and Leon, and the Ford Kuga, Mondeo, Galaxy and S-Max, is all concentrated in Spain.

The future seems more contrasted, because despite the upcoming arrival of the 2008 Peugeot (from Mulhouse in France) and the transfer of some of the Opel Corsa (from Eisenach in Germany), it will be necessary to take into account the transfer of the Opel Mokka from Spain to France (Poissy) and especially the announced stop of the Ford Mondeo, Galaxy and S-Max, as well as the transfer of the Ford Transit Connect from Spain to Mexico.

But the most difficult thing will probably be to face the decline in global markets that is expected to continue over the next two or three years,
according to the scenario forecasted in various Inovev studies.


    
 

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German passenger car production fell by 7.3% in the first half of 2019
German passenger car production fell by 7.3% in the first half of 2019, after having already fallen by 10.9% over the whole of 2018. These sub-standard performances are mainly related to the decline in exports of cars manufactured in Germany, due to the decline in world markets in 2018, which worsened in 2019.

Germany is the country most affected by the decline in registrations in China, the United States and England, as it exports a lot to these three markets. The decline in exports to Russia (which is  more and more focused on local production) has also had a negative impact on the volume of German automotive production.

In the first half of 2019, this production volume was 2.57 million units compared to 2.77 million in the first half of 2018. At this rate, the production volume for the whole of 2019 could be well below 5 million units (compared to 5.03 million in 2018 and 5.65 million in 2017).

Over the next two to three years, the global markets to which Germany exports are expected to continue to decline, notably  the European  countries (including Britain affected by Brexit), the United  States (which is entering a downward cycle) and China (which is expected to increasingly replace imports of vehicles from higher segments with local production).

The announced relocation of some Opel models (Astra, Grandland) is good news for Germany, although Opel removed the Adam, Corsa and Zafira from the German production program in 2019.


    
 

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French passenger car production increased by 0.6% in the first half of 2019
French passenger car production increased by 0.6% in the first half of 2019 compared to the first half of 2018, whereas it had fallen by 2.9% over the whole of 2018 (compared to 2017). This latter performance is mainly due to the decline in world markets, as France exports a large part of its production abroad (nearly 70% of its production).

In the first six months of 2019, France produced 904,000 passenger cars, compared with 899,000 units in the first six months of 2018. At this rate, France could produce 1.65 million passenger cars over the whole of 2019 (slightly higher than in 2018), and 2.2 million vehicles of all types (passenger cars + LCVs). It should be noted that France is the largest European producer of commercial vehicles, ahead of Spain, Germany and even Turkey.

The future seems more difficult, as French automakers have decided to continue to transfer their models in the East of Europe and in the North Africa. Thus, the Opel Grandland has just been transferred from France to Germany, the Peugeot 2008 will be transferred from France to Spain, the small part of the Renault Clio that was still produced in France will be relocated to Slovenia, the small part of the Peugeot 208 that was still produced in France will be relocated to Morocco, and the Smart For two will be transferred from France to China. To partially compensate for these departures, France is scheduled to welcome the production of the future Opel Mokka, Nissan NV250, Mercedes EQA, an SUV version of the Yaris, and several new DS variants.


    
 

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