Inovev forecasts 70,000 units per year of the Volkswagen ID4
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Inovev forecasts 70,000 units per year of the Volkswagen ID4
- After ID3, Volkswagen has unveiled its second battery electric vehicle (BEV) based on its new MEB platform. This is an SUV named ID4 which will be produced alongside the ID3 at the Zwickau plant (Germany). Transformed in 2019 into a 100% electric car plant, it can produce up to 200,000 vehicles per year, under the different Volkswagen, Seat, Skoda and maybe even Audi brands.
- The ID4 is much more bigger than the ID3, as it measures 4.58m long, 1.85m wide and 1.63m high instead of 4.26m, 1.80m and 1.55m respectively for the ID3. The weight of the ID4 is also much heavier, reaching 2 125 kilograms, which represents an increase of 300 kilograms compared to an ID3. While ID3 targets Golf customers, ID4 targets Tiguan customers. It is therefore a model marketed between the C and D segments.
- The price is related to the positioning: 48,000 euros for the basic version (400 km of autonomy) and 58,000 euros for the most expensive version (500 km of autonomy), while an ID3 starts at 38,000 euros (400 km of autonomy). A Skoda Enyaqstarts at 40,800 euros in its basic version (400 km of autonomy) and 47,300 euros in its most expensive version (500 km of autonomy). And an even cheaper version of the Enyaq (340 km of range) will be launched next year, priced at a Volkswagen ID3 price level.
- Competition will therefore be fierce between the different models based on the MEB platform. And we can expect that the future Volkswagen ID5 will be even more expensive than the ID4, probably sold for over 50,000 euros in the basic version. In this context of intense competition, Inovev forecasts 70,000 sales per year of the Volkswagen ID4.
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Tesla plans to start production in Berlin in the second half of 2021
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Tesla plans to start production in Berlin in the second half of 2021
- Tesla has confirmed the start of production of battery electric vehicles (BEV) at its new European plant in Berlin in the second half of 2021. This production, which will be exclusively dedicated to the European market, should therefore reach a regular rate from 2022, and slowly increase until 2030. The models initially produced will be the Model 3 (D-segment sedan) and Model Y (D-segment SUV).
- The production capacity of this plant is set at 150,000 vehicles per year, but a second production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year could be added depending on the success of future Tesla models on the European market and depending on the effective development of the electric car market in Europe.
- In 2019, Tesla sold 111,714 vehicles in Europe, including 95,247 Model 3, 8,810 Model S and 7,657 Model X. In the first eight months of 2020, the California-based electric car maker sold 46,800 vehicles, including 38 024 Model 3, 4,703 Model S and 4,070 Model X.
- The Model Y has not yet started marketing in Europe. This new model, which completes the Tesla range, will be 10 cm longer than the Model 3 (ie 4.78 m), 18 cm higher (ie 1.60 m) and 10,000 euros more expensive. It should therefore logically achieve fewer sales than the Model 3, even if the share of SUVs in Europe is currently 40%. As a result, Tesla can expect to produce 80,000 Model 3 and 70,000 Model Y (or even 90,000 Model 3 and 60,000 Model Y) per year in its future plant in Berlin and quickly reaching its maximum capacities.
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Inovev forecasts 15,000 units per year of the new Seat El Born
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Inovev forecasts 15,000 units per year of the new Seat El Born
- Seat has started marketing in recent weeks its El Born model, an hatchback rebadged version of the Volkswagen ID3. These two battery electric vehicles (BEV) are produced at the Zwickau plant, alongside the Volkswagen ID4 and its future Seat and Skoda rebadged models. Audi BEVs could also be produced on this plant.
- The Seat El Born will also be available under the Cupra brand, the new Volkswagen group brand from the Seat brand (the Cupra models were initially more sporty versions of the Seat).
- The Seat El Born and Cupra El Born are based on the VW Group MEB platform, specifically dedicated to BEVs of the VW group main stream brands (VW, Skoda and Seat) and to C & D segment vehicles from Audi. The Porsche brand as well as Audi's E (e-tron GT) and F segment models use and will use the J1 platform (with the exception of the Audi e-tron, which is already based on an MLB evolution platform).
- The battery installed in these models can allow up to 500 km of autonomy according to the carmaker. But other versions with a less powerful battery will be available in 2021, with a range of 400 km for one and 300 km for the other. These models will be cheaper to buy. In fact, the product range organisation is a copy of what Volkswagen is doing with ID3 and will likely do on the ID4, which has just started its production.
- The Seat El Born is expected to be priced slightly lower than the Volkswagen ID3, while the Cupra El Born is expected to be slightly higher.
For now, it's not clear what will differentiate a Seat El Born from a Cupra El Born. It would be interesting to see what will be the Volkswagen Group approaches of an sporty electric sedan. Inovev forecasts 15,000 units per year of the new Seat El Born (including the Cupra versions) at the Zwickau site.
For now, it's not clear what will differentiate a Seat El Born from a Cupra El Born. It would be interesting to see what will be the Volkswagen Group approaches of an sporty electric sedan. Inovev forecasts 15,000 units per year of the new Seat El Born (including the Cupra versions) at the Zwickau site.
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The US market of light vehicles is down 17.7% over 9 months 2020
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The US market of light vehicles is down 17.7% over 9 months 2020
- The American car market (USA) for passenger cars and light trucks (considered as passenger cars in Europe and China) fell by 17.7% in the first 9 months of 2020, compared to the first 9 months of 2019, while the decrease reached -22.5% over the first 6 months of 2020, -21.9% over the first 5 months and -20% over the first 4 months, compared to the same period of 2019. There is therefore clearly an improvement in the American market since last July.
- Still positive in February 2020 (+ 10.3%), as it was not yet impacted by the coronavirus crisis, this market swung into the red from March 2020 (-36.9%) and this trend was amplified in April (-46.1%) before returning to a smaller drop in May (-28.7%) and in June (-25.3%).
- The US market benefited a 6.2% increase in September 2020, the first month of growth since last February. With a drop of 17.7% over 9 months, we can now expect a better shape US market in the second half of the year.
- The US market could end the year with an 11.5% drop. It is also highly probable that the lost sales between March and June 2020 will not be caught up, neither this year nor next year.
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Chinese market of passenger cars down 12.1% over 9 months 2020
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Chinese market of passenger cars down 12.1% over 9 months 2020
- The Chinese passenger car market was down 12.1% in the first 9 months of 2020, compared to the first 9 months of 2019, while the decline reached 22.5% in the first 6 months of 2020, -27.5% over the first 5 months and -35.5% over the first 4 months, compared to the same period of 2019. The Chinese market has therefore improved noticeably since last April, which definitively marked the return to before crisis levels. It is to remind that March posted a drop of 48.4% and February a drop of 81.7% at the worst period of the coronavirus crisis before April was back to the level of last year.
- May month was positive (+ 7.2%) as well as June (+ 2.1%). The month of September 2020 posted an increase of almost 9%. These were the first positive months since 2018. It can therefore be said that the coronavirus crisis seems to have passed in China and that future months will continue to be on the rise.
- However, the catching up of sales missed in February and March 2020 will not take place, and the market will remain slightly down over the whole year, between -6% and -9%, if the trend of the last few months continue.
- China was the first large country impacted by the pandemic to restart and return to a level of sales comparable to 2019 from April 2020, which is not at all the case for the European and American markets which will remain negative all over the year.
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