The range of Renault will change completely
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The range of Renault will change completely
- Renault's model range will undergo major changes between 2023 and 2025. In 2023, the Scénic (C-segment minivan) and Espace (D-segment minivan) models will disappear, followed by the Twingo (A-segment sedan) and Zoé (B-segment sedan) in 2024. And the combustion-engine Mégane (C-segment sedan) seems doomed in the foreseeable future as the carmaker focuses on developing its all-electric E-Tech version to gradually replace it. The Talisman (D-segment sedan) has already been discontinued in 2022.
- The manufacturer's entire old model lineup will be replaced by the new battery electric R4 (B-segment SUV), R5 (B-segment sedan) and Scénic (C-segment SUV) models, scheduled for 2024-2025. This new model range was inaugurated in 2022 with the battery electric Mégane E-Tech and the new battery electric Kangoo E-Tech.
- In addition, the Clio with internal combustion engine (B-segment sedan) is scheduled to be replaced by a new generation with internal combustion engine in 2026, probably the last one.
- The Renault Captur (B-segment SUV) and Austral (C-segment SUV) are expected to continue with internal combustion engines for a few more years, but Renault will launch an electric-powered Captur in 2026, similar to the Peugeot 2008 (B-segment SUV), which is already available as an electric version. The Austral will also be converted to electric drive, like the future Peugeot 3008 (C-segment SUV), which will be available as an electric version from 2023.
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Gigafactory projects in Europe canceled
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Gigafactory projects in Europe canceled
- The automotive industry in Europe and in most Asian countries is moving towards electric mobility. As a result, numerous plans have been announced for the construction of "gigafactories" to manufacture batteries for electric cars. Inovev, in its recent studies, projected the future demand for rechargeable vehicles (BEV and PHEV) and therefore calculated the need for batteries. This demand was put in relation to the recent announcements of production capacities of current and future gigafactories. We concluded that the European battery industry will face an overcapacity in Europe of almost 50% in 2030 if all projects are realized (2022-21 analysis). We have already pointed out that questions arise about this future overcapacity. Already, some projects have been stopped, others postponed, and still others are still pending. In this analysis, we will list these recent changes and their impact on production capacity.
- Farasis: Chinese supplier Farasis was originally supposed to build a battery cell factory for Daimler with a capacity of up to 16 GW in Bitterfeld- Wolfen (Saxony-Anhalt, Germany). After the plans were postponed several times, Daimler decided to take over production itself. Since the contract with the city of Bitterfeld was terminated, but Farasis still owns the land, the question remains as to where and when production of Daimler's battery project will begin.
- Britishvolt: The company wanted to build a battery production plant with a capacity of up to 35 GWh in Northumberland (UK). However, it seems to be struggling with financial problems. So far, only the start of production has been postponed from 2023 to 2025. If the problems are not resolved, the project could even be abandoned. So far, only letters of intent have been issued by Aston Martin and Lotus to cooperate (annual volume of around 10,000 vehicles). It is difficult to imagine that such a project can be realized, even more so with volumes as low as those of the customers.
- Varta: Due to rising costs and delays in orders, German battery manufacturer Varta will stop implementing its plans for its 10 GWh factory in Nördlingen (Bavaria, Germany) and will not proceed until it has received firm commitments from its customers. However, an initial factory for volume production has yet to come on stream, as one automaker, likely Porsche, has already committed as a customer. The factory was originally scheduled to begin volume production in 2023. At present, it looks to Inovev as if the project will not be expanded further.
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The production of electric cars in Germany until 2030
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The production of electric cars in Germany until 2030
- Germany, the largest and most important production location for the automotive industry in Europe, is on the road to electromobility. Not only have numerous Gigafactory projects been announced that would make Germany the most important production location for battery cells and modules, according to Inovev, but automotive factories are also being converted to produce all-electric vehicles.
- The Volkswagen brand is currently trying to add a wing to its main plant in Wolfsburg for the "Trinity" project, but is encountering internal and external difficulties in implementing it. In addition to the Cupra Born, Zwickau also produces a large part of the ID range. The plant could thus become the largest BEV production facility in Germany. However, the BEV version of the Passat (ID7) is to be produced in Emden. Audi will electrify its vehicle range in the coming years, and the traditional plants in Neckarsulm and Ingolstadt should be adapted to this development. Porsche will produce the Macan as a BEV in Leipzig from 2024 in addition to the Taycan in Stuttgart.
- Mercedes already has its wide range of BEVs, the EQ series. Various models in the series are produced in Rastatt, Sindelfingen and Bremen. BMW still has a fairly small BEV range. The current i-series models are manufactured in Leipzig. The Dingolfing plant is scheduled to start producing the i5 and i7 models in 2022/2023.
- The Tesla plant near Berlin has the potential to become one of the largest BEV production facilities in Germany, alongside Zwickau. The plant is in expansion with the Model Y. European production of the potiential Model 2 and Model 3 could also be located there.
- Stellantis seems to be focusing on other production sites, as its Rüsselsheim plant will only produce the BEV version of the Opel Astra and the DS 4 model.
- Ford announced a new electric SUV in Cologne, Germany, after it was already known that BEV production would begin in Valencia, Spain. The Saarlouis plant will most likely be abandoned by Ford after 2025. It is unclear whether there will be a manufacturer that can take over and convert the plant for BEV production.
- It is noticeable that many BEV models are to be produced in Germany, but these are mainly models of the premium segments. This favors profit at the expense of production volume. Inovev estimates that about 1.3 million BEVs could be produced in Germany in 2030, while Spain, where more mass-produced vehicles are to be made, could produce up to 1.5 million vehicles in 2030.
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Gigafactory projects in Europe postponed or relocated
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Gigafactory projects in Europe postponed or relocated
Following the previous analysis, here we cover the Gigafactory projects in Europe that have been postponed or may be relocated :
- Svolt: The production plant planned in Überherrn (Saarland, Germany) by Chinese battery manufacturer Svolt will apparently have to be postponed by several years. While production was originally scheduled to start at the end of 2023, pilot production is now planned for 2027 and mass production for 2028. Administrative processes and local opposition to the site are cited as reasons. In order to maintain the contracts with Stellantis, an alternative in Lauchhammer (Brandenburg, Germany) was found at short notice. It is hoped to start pilot production in Lauchhammer in 2025. The Brandenburg plant is expected to have a production capacity of 16 GWh, probably at the expense of the Überherrn plant, whose original maximum capacity was designed for 32 GWh.
- The Volkswagen Group, which is currently looking for sites for five of its own battery factories, is facing opposition from local residents in the Czech city of Pilsen, which has been considered as a possible location. For Skoda, Volkswagen's Czech subsidiary, the site, which is only a two-hour drive from its plant in Mlada Boleslav, would be a production advantage. It is entirely possible that there will be significant delays in VW's plans.
- Northvolt: Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt could move the project of its 60 GWh factory from Heide in Germany to the U.S. to take advantage of the future local subsidies, given to buyers of BEVs equipped with batteries produced in US, Canada or Mexico. In addition, with its law to encourage local battery production, US offers massive subsidies and tax breaks for battery manufacturers. The Northvolt project in Germany was still quite new and in its early stages.
- It is noticeable that often the plan changes for Gigafactories affect the German sites. This could be due to the fact that a particularly large number of announcements were made for Germany, which would have made Germany the most important location for battery production in Europe, according to Inovev's analysis. It will be interesting to see the development of battery factory projects in Spain, which would become the most important European country for BEV production, according to Inovev's analysis. It will also be interesting to observe the development of projects in countries where the automotive industry is not well developed, such as Serbia, or by suppliers that are supported by countries or regions but have not signed contracts with car manufacturers.
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The current and future situation of the Turkish automotive industry
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The current and future situation of the Turkish automotive industry
- Turkey has been a backbone of the European automotive industry for decades, as several carmakers have shifted part of their production to the lower-cost country, led by Renault, Fiat, Ford, Hyundai and Toyota. Production volumes in Turkey peaked in 2017 at 1.75 million vehicles produced, compared with 1 million in 2013, but production slumped after 2017 and stabilized at 1.2 million units in 2020, 2021 and 2022, the same level as France. Honda closed its Turkish plant in 2021, and the Stellantis plant in Bursa (formerly Fiat) stopped production of the Doblo model in 2022, now manufactured in Vigo (Spain), and halted production of the Fiorino model, which was not replaced.
- Volkswagen, for its part, halted plans to build a plant in Turkey. Thus, the outlook for the Turkish automotive industry does not seem very optimistic, especially since there have been no announcements so far from Turkey-based carmakers about the start of production of 100% electric models in the country, with the exception of Ford, which plans to introduce electric versions of the Transit (the Ford Transit has been produced in Turkey for many years).
- At Toyota, we are waiting for the launch of the second generation of the CHR (C-segment SUV), still manufactured in Turkey, which will be a non-rechargeable hybrid vehicle (HEV). The salvation of the Turkish automotive industry may come from the start-up of the Gemlik factory, which wants to produce 175,000 100% electric vehicles in 2023 under the new Togg brand (with Turkish capital) and one million per year from 2030. Its first model should leave the plant in the spring of 2023.
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