New cars sold in California in 2035 must be "zero emission"
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New cars sold in California in 2035 must be "zero emission"
- The California State Air Quality Agency has approved a rule that by 2035 only allows sales of zero-emission vehicles. California, which has always been at the forefront in the field of the environment compared to other American states, is therefore in tune with the European Union which has been proposing since last summer a similar regulation for 2035 (Norway is even going to anticipate as early as 2025).
- However, one important difference: unlike in Europe, the regulations in the USA do not concern PHEVs. The text also provides that in 2026, 33% of car sales in California must concern 100% electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) or fuel cell (FCEV), 66% of car sales in 2030.
- This decision by California, the richest and most populous American state (about 40 million inhabitants), as well as the one that hosted the production site of the electric car carmaker Tesla, could encourage other states to move in this direction. Democratic President Joe Biden is pushing in this direction. In line with its environmental policy, it has in particular promulgated this month a vast investment plan on climate and health which provides for the whole country that 50% of new vehicles sold in 2030 must be BEV vehicles, PHEV or FCEV.
- But unlike Europe, there will be no binding regulations. Each carmaker will be free to sell thermal vehicles or not. This flexibility avoids directly threatening the Big Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler) which are lagging behind in the field of electric vehicles compared to European and Chinese carmakers. President Joe Biden has also announced funding for charging stations in 35 states. In 2021, the share of BEV+PHEV+FCEV in the US market only represented 4.3% compared to 15.6% in China and 19.2% in Europe. For BEVs alone, the share was 3.2% in the USA, compared to 10.4% in Europe and 12.8% in China.
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The US BEV and PHEV market in 2022
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The US BEV and PHEV market in 2022
- The market for plug-in vehicles (BEV+PHEV) increased by 67% in the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021. While 282,118 BEVs and PHEVs had been sold in the United States by the end of June 2021, this figure increased to 471,907 vehicles at the end of June 2022.
- The top three spots are all taken by Tesla with the Y (135,055 sales), 3 (105,000 sales) and S (18,000 sales) models. Ford's Mustang Mach E (17,675 sales) is also doing well, up 36% from 2021. The Jeep Wrangler (16,857 sales) and Hyundai Ioniq 5 (13,692 sales) got off to a good start. If these models were not yet on the market in 2019, they occupy the 5th and 6th places of BEV/PHEV sales in the United States. At the end of June, the Wrangler is also the most popular PHEV in the United States.
- By groups, Tesla is the most successful in this market with 269,755 sales in the first half of 2022, around 84% more than the same period in 2021. As with models, Ford is its pursuer, but by far (22,979 sales). Despite losing the most sales (-12,985), Chevrolet is still in twelfth place in the US BEV/PHEV market with 7,303 sales. It is clear that Tesla continues to dominate the plug-in vehicle market in the United States, far ahead of its competitors.
- The US market is still far from the European one (even if the European BEV+PHEV market only grew by 9% compared to the half of 2021). But the European (1,122,542 units) and American (471,907 units) markets are also far from the Chinese market, which grew by 110% compared to the 2019 period to reach 2,450,503 vehicles.
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China has a charging socket for three plug-in vehicles (BEV + PHEV)
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China has a charging socket for three plug-in vehicles (BEV + PHEV)
- In China, 3.3 million NEVs (New Energy Vehicles = BEV + PHEV + FCEVs) were sold in 2021. The fleet of NEVs therefore reached nearly 8 million units. For 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) had forecast that 5 million NEVs will be sold in 2022. In view of the first 8 months of the year (3.7 million NEVs including 2.9 million BEVs and 816,000 PHEVs), this objective will be well achieved, if not exceeded.
- The increase in NEVs must be accompanied by an increase in the number of infrastructure of private and public chargers and battery exchange stations (swapping). In 2021, the number of charging sockets on Chinese territory is already around 2.6 million (including nearly 1.15 million public sockets), which means that one in three NEVs in China already has a charging socket, while the number of swapping stations has probably exceeded one thousand units.
- The Chinese carmaker NIO has the largest network of swapping stations to date with 780 stations (as of January 2022), because its business model is based on this principle. NIO wishes to set up in Europe, a first station being operational in Oslo, Norway.
Other Chinese automakers are now trying to catch up. Geely entered into a partnership in 2021 with Lifan Technology (which is owned by Geely) to develop a battery-powered vehicle and set up an infrastructure of swapping stations for it. Changan, for its part, aims to commission 140 swapping stations by the end of 2022 and 200 stations by the end of 2023.
Other Chinese automakers are now trying to catch up. Geely entered into a partnership in 2021 with Lifan Technology (which is owned by Geely) to develop a battery-powered vehicle and set up an infrastructure of swapping stations for it. Changan, for its part, aims to commission 140 swapping stations by the end of 2022 and 200 stations by the end of 2023.
- Swapping stations are still a niche, even in a high-growth Chinese market. Nevertheless, the projects are developing, because the NEV market is growing very rapidly (the NEV market has more than doubled in 1 year).
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Russia towards an independent production of vehicles strategy
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Russia towards an independent production of vehicles strategy
- Western economic sanctions against Russia have caused both a fall of the local car market (notably due to the cessation of most imports) and local car production (notably due to the shutdown of a large part of the factories established in Russia).
- The automotive market has collapsed by more than 60% over the first 8 months of 2022 and the volume of Russian automotive production has also fallen by more than 60% over the same period. And the months following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2022 show even greater drops, of the order of 80% to 90%.
- Faced with this industrial disaster and the departure of European and American carmakers, the Russian government decided to proceed in the same way as for other sectors of activity threatened by economic sanctions, that is to say to become self - sufficient by doing without the technology provided by Westerners (engines, automatic transmissions, ABS, airbags).
- The Soviet Union (1917-1991) had in its own way created an independent automobile industry, although Avtovaz was built with the help of Fiat and Moskvitch with the help of Renault. The acquisition of Avtovaz by Renault in 2011 and the establishment of several foreign carmakers in Russia had reduced Russian national production to a bare minimum. Vladimir Putin's objective is to recreate an independent automobile industry after the departure of Renault - former owner of Avtovaz and Avtoframos - and other European carmakers, following the invasion of Ukraine. According to the Russian government itself, car sales in Russia are not expected to return to 2021 levels until 2026 or 2027.
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Who will be the battery cells suppliers in Europe in 2030?
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Who will be the battery cells suppliers in Europe in 2030?
- In 2022 in Europe, the number of battery cells producers for passenger cars (PCs) is still very limited, with 4 carmakers in 3 countries.
The largest battery producer in Europe is currently LG CHEM, whose production in Poland is expected to reach 65 gWh in 2022. Next come Samsung SD (30 gWh) in second position and SK Innovations (17.5 gWh) in third position, which both produce in Hungary. Envision AESC (1.9 gWh) is fourth with its production located in Great Britain. By analyzing the announcements of producers, however, the situation should change in 2030. Envision AESC could become the largest producer of cells for passenger cars with capacities at 99 gWh, followed by ACC and Northvolt. New factories are under construction or planned, in particular in Germany, which could become the largest producing country in Europe with in particular the projects of ACC (Kaiserslaurten), VW (Salzgitter), CATL (Erfurt), SVOLT (Überherm /Saarlouis) or Varta (Ellwangen). Note that CATL's recent announcement of a second plant in Hungary has not been taken into account, waiting for more precise information.
The largest battery producer in Europe is currently LG CHEM, whose production in Poland is expected to reach 65 gWh in 2022. Next come Samsung SD (30 gWh) in second position and SK Innovations (17.5 gWh) in third position, which both produce in Hungary. Envision AESC (1.9 gWh) is fourth with its production located in Great Britain. By analyzing the announcements of producers, however, the situation should change in 2030. Envision AESC could become the largest producer of cells for passenger cars with capacities at 99 gWh, followed by ACC and Northvolt. New factories are under construction or planned, in particular in Germany, which could become the largest producing country in Europe with in particular the projects of ACC (Kaiserslaurten), VW (Salzgitter), CATL (Erfurt), SVOLT (Überherm /Saarlouis) or Varta (Ellwangen). Note that CATL's recent announcement of a second plant in Hungary has not been taken into account, waiting for more precise information.
- However, we must be careful with these announcements since some projects may evolve. For example, the project for a Farasis factory in Bitterfeld-Wolfen has been cancelled. Similarly, Tesla's Berlin factory project could also be abandoned in favor of a factory in the USA, to take advantage of the Biden administration's future plan which would promote local production of BEVs and batteries. However at this stage nothing has been confirmed.
- In general, the announcements of battery production capacities in Europe by producers by 2030 raise questions. Indeed, according to Inovev's forecasts, the demand for battery cells for BEVs and PHEVs should be around 350 gWh while the announced capacities are around 665 gWh (minimum scenario). We would find ourselves in this case with overcapacities of almost 50%. What will we do with this excess production capacity? Export them? Assign them to other applications? Reduce them?
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