European production fell 1.4% in 2019
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European production fell 1.4% in 2019
- European automobile production (VP + LCV) fell 1.4% in 2019 to 18.25 million units compared to 18.5 million in 2018 and 18.9 million in 2017. This drop in automobile production, which even reached 2.6% for passenger cars alone (15.7 million units compared to 16.1 million in 2018 and 16.5 million in 2017), due to the drop in registrations in many markets, including China.
- Exports to regions outside Europe (29 countries) thus again lost 200,000 units in 2019 compared to 2018, a year which had already recorded a loss of 200,000 units. Fortunately, the good performance of the European market in 2019 (+ 1.2% for passenger cars) helped limit the damage.
- The transfer of part of production from the West to Eastern Europe continued in 2019, as the Western European volume fell by 4.3% (-6.1% for passenger cars ) while the Eastern European volume increased by 8.9% (+ 8.9% for passenger cars). The proportion is now 75-25 in favor of Western Europe. This gap narrows from year to year.
- Germany remains the leading producer in Europe, but its influence is reduced from year to year, in particular due to a drop in exports to the USA and China, and the partial or total transfer of certain models from Germany abroad. Spain remains the second largest producer in Europe, ahead of France and England. It is now closely followed by the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Together, the Czech Republic and Slovakia produce more than France!
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European manufacturers used 80% of their capacity in 2019
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European manufacturers used 80% of their capacity in 2019
- European manufacturers used 80% of their European capacity in 2019, compared to 81% in 2018, 83% in 2017 and 84% in 2016. The decline in European car production inevitably leads to an increase in overcapacity on this continent, given that no manufacturer has decided to close factories, the last having been carried out date back to 2014, with the closure of Bochum (GM) and Genk (Ford). The Dresden plant has been converted into the assembly of the Volkswagen e-Golf.
- Despite this, this 80% utilization rate remains one of the best in the decade, because even if production fell by 1.4% last year, demand and therefore the market remains at a high level if we observes the results recorded over the past fifteen years.
- This 80% utilization rate is also considered by economists to be a rate allowing real profitability of the site, with a workforce made up of two daily teams. A site operating at 50-80% of its capacity is considered unprofitable, and a site operating at less than 50% of its capacity is unprofitable.
- Among European factories working at more than 90% of their capacity in 2019, we observe the presence of several belonging to the Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW groups, but also belonging to the Renault-Nissan, PSA and FCA groups.
- With the drop in German production in 2019, the gap has narrowed a little between the utilization rate of factories of German manufacturers and that of factories of French and Italian manufacturers. However, the FCA group remains the European manufacturer in 2019 with the most overcapacity.
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続きを読む... European manufacturers used 80% of their capacity in 2019
Auto factories gradually restart in China since March
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Auto factories gradually restart in China since March
The situation of the automotive industry is improving in China, the first focus of the coronavirus:
- BMW: Production at BMW factories in Shenyang gradually resumed on February 17, and the automaker said it was confident in the ability of the Chinese government to manage the crisis and overcome the epidemic.
- Daimler: Daimler has reopened its factory in China, and said that the vast majority of its dealers have reopened.
- FCA: The company has announced that its manufacturing activities in China have restarted under the approval of the relevant regional and national governments. Over 90% of its dealerships and 95% of the company’s personnel with the Guangzhou automotive group are back in business, and all manufacturing and sales operations are gradually resuming.
- Ford: The American automaker said that its Chinese factories resumed production on February 10 and continue to ramp up, although some employees from Hubei or Wuhan are still subject to movement restrictions.
- GM: All of SAIC's factories in China have resumed production, with the company adjusting production levels according to demand. The car manufacturer has emergency plans to secure the parts in the event of disturbances.
- Honda: The Japanese automaker has informed that the capacity of its two Chinese factories is gradually recovering and that, so far, they have not had any problems caused by the shortage of spare parts in this country due to the supply from outside of China.
- PSA: The group has relaunched with Dongfeng the production of cars in its factory in Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic in China. The group also builds cars in two other factories (Chengdu and Xiangyang).
- Nissan: All Nissan factories in China have resumed work and production is ready to align with government mandates.
- Tesla: The Tesla plant in China has recovered better from the closure than many others in the industry, thanks to the help of local authorities. After resuming operations on February 10, the plant exceeded the capacity it had before shutdown, reaching weekly production of 3,000 cars.
- Toyota: Toyota's factories in Guangzhou, Chengdu Tianjin and Changchun have returned to their normal hours. Over 98% of Toyota dealerships are open again, and the company does not currently plan to adjust its initial sales target for 2020 in China.
- Volkswagen: Almost all the production sites are operational again, according to the manufacturer. The challenges to be addressed include the slowness of the national supply chain and the ramp-up of logistics, as well as the still limited travel possibilities for employees. All component production sites for Volkswagen and its partners are back in operation. The company adjusts its production levels according to current conditions, in particular by switching to a team instead of two previously in its factories.
- Volvo: In early March, Volvo reopened its four manufacturing plants in China after an extended shutdown to cope with the epidemic. The automaker said current traffic in showrooms indicates a return to normal in the Chinese auto market.
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続きを読む... Auto factories gradually restart in China since March
Which manufacturers have suffered the most from the Covid-19 crisis in China?
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Which manufacturers have suffered the most from the Covid-19 crisis in China?
- We have previously seen that the Chinese automobile market for passenger cars (passenger cars) declined by 20.5% in January 2020 and by 81.7% in February 2020, or by 43.5% in the first two months of the year 2020, due to the coronavirus health crisis.
- Not all manufacturers located in China suffered an identical drop, because on the one hand all the factories in China did not close at the same time, neither were the concessions, certain regions were more affected than others ( Hubei for example) and some factories suffered more than others from a shortage of parts. Finally, we can add that certain brands benefited from stronger demand than their competitors, due to a more attractive offer.
- All these elements taken into account, we observe that the big losers are Renault (-87%), FCA (-83%) and PSA (-77%), which had already acquired a very fragile position on the Chinese market for several years, and one may wonder if their presence on this market is still possible. Also a big loser, the GM group (Wuling -70%, Baojun -68%, Chevrolet -55-%, Buick -52%, Cadillac -48%) which fell overall by 59%. The Hyundai-Kia group is also very affected by the crisis (-51%).
-More surprisingly, the VW group lost 42% (Skoda -74%, Volkswagen -48%, Audi -24%) and would have lost more without the contribution of its new brand Jetta whose sales exceeded that of Ford on the Chinese market . However, Ford is the only group to have seen its sales and production increase in 2020 in China, compared to 2019. Chinese manufacturers and Premium brands have held up better in this global context of collapse.
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続きを読む... Which manufacturers have suffered the most from the Covid-19 crisis in China?
Europe still far from restarting
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Europe still far from restarting
- As China slowly reboots, Europe is in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, which means that its car factories and dealerships are nearly all shutdown, and will likely remain so throughout the month of April.
- Under these conditions, the European market is expected to fall by around 50% in March, while the factories and concessions were still active for the first 15 days of the month. April is likely to see a market in the range of -70% to 100%. After April, everything will depend on whether or not the confinement will be extended and whether demand will exist as it should have been in April and May, and in the following months.
- All forecasting organizations predict a fall in the European and global auto market in 2020, but none agree on its intensity. ACEA predicts a fall of between 10% and 25% in 2020. Moody's plans for its part a fall of 14% in the world market in 2020, counting on a vigorous recovery at the end of the crisis.
- IHS Markit expects global auto sales to 78.8 million units, down 12% in 2020 from 2019. For Europe, IHS expects demand of 15.6 million units , down 13.6% compared to 2019. Concerning the USA, 14.4 million units sold in 2020, representing a decrease of 15.3% compared to 2019. In China, IHS revised the demand down 10% in 2020, with sales forecast at 19.3 million units for the year.
- Inovevremains on its forecast of -15% to -45% of sales on the European market, according to the aid implemented by the various governments.
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