Global automotive production down 4.8% year-on-year in 2019
Global automotive production (PC+UV) is down 4.8% year-to-date in the first nine months of 2019, compared to the first nine months of 2018, and it is likely that over the year as a whole, the decline will be close to 5% because there is no real sign of improvement on the horizon.

The automotive markets are almost all down, pulled by the first of them, China, and the volume of the automotive production only reflects what is really happening on all markets.

Passenger car production declined by 6.2% while commercial vehicle production fell by 0.9%. Compared to the world car market, the difference is due to the storage or the destocking of this type of vehicle.

By manufacturer, we saw recently that the world ranking of the first 12 groups had been totally turned upside down by the significant decline of the Chinese market, Volkswagen, GM and Ford having each lost a place.

By country, China sees its production decline by 11.4%, while that of the United States loses 2.1% and Europe 1% only. Turkey loses 9.4% of its production, India -13.7%, Argentina -33.8% (because of its depressed market), Canada -4.5%, Mexico -1, 2%, Russia -2.2%.

Remaining up, Brazil (+ 1.7%), Japan (+ 3.0%) and South Korea (+ 0.8%). Among the small producing countries, Morocco impresses with an increase of 8% of its production.


    
 

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Top 20 Electric Cars in China in 2019 (8 months)
According to CAAM, 719,800 BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle – 100% electric) and PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) were sold in China in the first eight months of 2019 (560,174 BEVs and 159,626 PHEVs), an increase of 38% over the same period from 2018. This BEV and PHEV market represents 6% of the Chinese Passenger Car (PC) market over the period. This figure is still far from the 9 to 10% forecast by the Chinese government, but we must recognize that the delay comes mainly from foreign manufacturers who occupy 62% of PC market share in China but represents only a tiny part of sales of BEV and PHEV.

Of the first 20 sales of BEV and PHEV in China for the first eight months of 2019, only 3 cars of foreign brands are included: the BMW 5 Series PHEV (12th place), the Volkswagen Passat PHEV (13th place) and the Tesla Model 3 (15th place).

Chinese brands are therefore hyper-represented and it can be said that most of them will be in line with the objectives of the Chinese government. The first of these are BYD (173,192 sales), BAIC (94,789 sales) and SAIC (88,516 sales), which account for nearly half of sales of BEVs and PHEVs in China.

The best-selling model is the BAIC EU-Series (formerly Beijing Senova D50 EV) which was sold to 65,593 units in the first eight months of 2019, corresponding to an amount of 100,000 units over the year. This model comes in the form of a six-door saloon of 4.60m long.


    
 

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Top 20 Electric Cars in the USA in 2019 (8 months)

205,365 BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle – 100% electric) and PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) were sold in the USA in the first eight months of 2019, down 12.5% from the same period of 2018. This market is therefore in sharp decline, while it is rising sharply in China and Europe. It might be a consequence of the Trump Administration's policy of encouraging the purchase of thermal engine vehicles over zero-emission vehicles, including the questioning of California's legislation on vehicle emissions. The increase in oil production on American soil, thanks to shale oil, has no doubt favored this new state of mind. The problem is that shale oil reserves remain low, less than three years of US consumption.


The Californian manufacturer Tesla does not fit into the Trump’s policy, with 114,615 electric cars sold on the US market during the first 8 months of 2019, representing 56% of all BEVs and PHEVs sold on this market. Model 3 is largely in the lead, with 93,950 sales, an annual rate of 140,000 units.


Given the shyness of the Detroit Big Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler) to develop electrified vehicles, the domination of Tesla is expected to continue over the next few years, as foreign manufacturers will certainly have difficulties to dislodge a US manufacturer who has played a pioneering role. In 2019, the BEV and PHEV market represents 3% of the Passenger Car (PC) market according to the world classification (including SUV and MPV).



    
 

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Top 20 Electric Cars in Europe in 2019 (8 months)
320,983 BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle – 100% electric) and PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) were sold in Europe (European Union + EFTA: 29 countries) in the first eight months of 2019, up 32.5% from the same period in 2018. This car market of BEV and PHEV represents 3% of the European Passenger Car (PC) market over the period, a proportion two times lower than that observed in China over the period.

Of the top 20 sales of BEVs and PHEVs in Europe, there is no Chinese car, as China has not yet begun exporting its BEVs and PHEVs.

Another particularity, the most sold electric model in Europe is an American model, since it is the Tesla Model 3 (46,515 sales) ahead of the Renault Zoé (31,182 sales) by 15,333 units and the Nissan Leaf (21,390 sales) by 25,125 units.

The American manufacturer Tesla has managed to dominate all its European rivals in their own market, thanks to a mid-range model, located in the same segment as the best-selling electric car in China, the BAIC EU-Series (segment D).

The Renault Zoe (B segment) and Nissan Leaf (C segment) are far behind in terms of sales. With such a volume, the Tesla Model 3 could reach 70,000 sales throughout the year. The dominance of the American brand (55,729 sales over the first 8 months of 2019, or 85,000 over the whole year) could continue until the possible consecration of the Volkswagen ID 3 which aims to become quickly the most sold electric car in Europe.


    
 

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Top 20 Electric Cars in Japan in 2019 (8 months)
34,307 BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle – 100% electric) and PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) were sold in Japan in the first eight months of 2019, which is almost stable compared to the same period in 2018. This BEV and PHEV market represents 1% of Japanese Passenger Car (PC) market over the period, a proportion three times lower than that observed in Europe and six times lower than that observed in China over the same period.

This low proportion of BEVs and PHEVs in Japan is mainly due to the fact that Japanese buyers are buying many non-rechargeable hybrid cars (HEV), mainly Toyota and Lexus, and these have finally monopolized the Japanese low emission car market.

In 2019, 500,000 non-rechargeable hybrid cars (HEV) will be sold in Japan, against 525,000 in 2018, 550,000 in 2017 and 600,000 in 2016. This relative decline is offset by a modest increase in sales of BEVs and PHEVs, until 2018. The Nissan Leaf remains the leader of the BEV market in Japan, with 14,066 sales in the first 8 months of 2019, which equates to an annual rate of 21,000 sales. This model accounts for 41% of this market in 2019.

Toyota has failed to impose its Prius plug-in hybrid (9,000 sales over 8 months) while the non-rechargeable version achieves scores ten times higher. By cons, Mitsubishi has managed to impose the rechargeable hybrid engine on its SUV Outlander sold largely in this version. Honda will market its small BEV from 2020.


    
 

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