Global sales of electrified cars in 2018
While the Chinese government has introduced quotas for manufacturers based in China so that their sales of electrified cars  are around 10% of their total sales on this market in 2019 ,and will be  even more in the following years, the European Union has preferred to act differently but with a comparable target: it imposes a 40% reduction in CO2 emissions for  new vehicles sold in Europe by 2030.

There are several ways for manufacturers to reduce their CO2 emissions. Electrification is one of the routes that shows rapid results. Today, the share of  100% electric vehicles  is  about 1% of the market in Europe compared to 4% in China. If we include plug-in hybrid cars, this share rises to 2% in Europe compared to 5% in China. If we also include non-rechargeable hybrid cars, this share rises to 5.5% in Europe compared to 5.5% in China.

There are therefore - in terms of market share - as many electrified cars in Europe as in China, but there are many more 100% electric cars sold in China than in Europe and many more non-rechargeable hybrid cars sold in Europe than in China.

We can now expect strong growth in sales of electrified cars in both China and Europe. The next Frankfurt Motor Show will give a clear idea of the electric car of the 2020s.


    
 

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Ford considering withdrawing from the Russian market
Four years after the GM group's withdrawal from the Russian market (only the Chevrolet Niva manufactured at the Togliatti site is still on the market today), the Ford group could follow the same path.

Indeed, the second American manufacturer has announced that it plans to stop producing its models in its three Russian factories, two of which are leased to the Sollers group.

In 2018, Ford sold 53,000 cars in Russia, compared to 50,000 in 2017 and 43,000 in 2016, but its market share continues to decline year after year. It fell to 3% in 2018, from 3.2% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2013, but above all Ford assembles six models in three different factories in Russia: Focus and Mondeo in Saint Petersburg, Ecosport and Fiesta in NaberezhnyeChelnye (Tatarstan), Kuga and Explorer in Yelabuga (Tatarstan). In total, Ford assembled 38,000 cars in Russia in 2018 compared to 45,000 in 2017 and 39,000 in 2016, while its production capacity exceeds 350,000 cars per year. Ford is increasingly using cars made abroad that are more heavily taxed. In Ford’s  opinion, this situation cannot continue.

As a first step, Ford decided to stop production in at least two of its Russian plants, pending a more radical decision to withdraw permanently from the Russian market. Ford had been present on the Russian market since 2002, thanks to the establishment of a factory in Saint Petersburg.


    
 

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Jeep to start Compass production in Europe this fall
At the 2019 Geneva Motor Show, Jeep presented the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versions of its Renegade (B segment) and Compass (C segment) SUVs. These are the first plug-in hybrid models marketed by the FCA group since the launch of the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid MPV, which is not imported  to Europe. They are also the first plug-in hybrid models marketed by the Jeep brand.

These two models will be sold on the European market from next autumn, and they will be produced  at the Melfi site in Italy, alongside the Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500X combustion engines.

The Compass will thus be produced for the first time in Europe (72,000  were sold last year in Europe, the same number as the Renegade). It will replace the Fiat Punto( whose production was stopped last summer)  on the assembly lines of the Melfi plant. Only  the Jeep Compass  marketed in  Europe  will be manufactured at the Melfi site, the others will  continue to be produced in Mexico (Toluca).

With the arrival of the Jeep Compass, the Melfi plant should produce more than 300,000 cars per year from next year, just as it did when the Fiat Punto was assembled on this site, which has a production capacity of 400,000 cars per year.

The Melfi plant remains the largest automotive plant in Italy, ahead of Val di Sangro and Pomigliano.


    
 

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Toyota plans to close its Burnaston plant
A few weeks before the introduction of Brexit, Toyota announced that it could close its British plant in Burnaston if the agreement between the European Union and Great Britain was not  satisfactory for their business. The Burnaston plant is currently manufacturing the Toyota Corolla, in its sedan and station wagon versions, since the Avensis and Auris were stopped at the end of last year.  According to Inovev, the Toyota Corolla could be transferred to another Toyota Corolla site in Europe, probably the Kolin site in the Czech Republic, since this plant that currently produces the Toyota Aygo, Peugeot 108 and Citroën C1 will stop the two French cars in two years, in 2021.

It is also possible that Toyota will proceed in the same way as Honda with the Civic, i.e. it will decide to bring the production of the Corolla back to Japan where it is already produced. It would then be exported to Europe from Japan. In 2018, the Toyota Auris (of which Corolla is the heir) sold 92,500 units in Europe.

The closure of the Toyota plant in Burnaston, if confirmed, would be bad news for the British automotive industry as it would add to the closure of the Honda plant in Swindon (scheduled for 2021), the reduction in capacity at the Nissan plant in Sunderland, Jaguar Land Rover's announcement to transfer part of its production to Slovakia and BMW's threat to export the Mini's production to the Netherlands.


    
 

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Hyundai and Kia will each close one of their plants in China
Hyundai and Kia sales have  dropped  dramatically in the Chinese market over the past two years, even before the market reversal observed in 2018. As a result, their local production (almost exclusively for the Chinese market) collapsed from 1.1 million in 2016 to 800,000 in 2018 for Hyundai and from 600,000 to 400,000 for Kia. The next two or three years are not guaranteed to be any better since the Chinese market is currently in a more difficult phase (-17.6% for all passenger cars in the first two months of 2019).

The Hyundai-Kia group, which has five plants in China, equivalent to a production capacity of 2.1 million vehicles per year and an effective production of 1.2 million units in 2018, has therefore decided to close two plants, one  for Hyundai (JV with Beijing) and the other for Kia (JV with Dongfeng). Their  production overcapacity, now equal to 900,000 units, will therefore be reduced by 600,000 units.

The Korean group's production capacity will thus fall to 1.5 million units per year, but it cannot be ruled out that this capacity will be reduced again in the future, if the Chinese market continues to decline. More generally, all manufacturers located in China will have to consider their strong current and future production overcapacities. Inovev estimates that there are several million units of overcapacity in automotive production in China.


    
 

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