说明

发表于 2021年12月24日

• Registrations

35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?

- In order to forecast the electrification levels of markets in Europe by 2030, Inovev has built a simulation model named "IES model", standing for "Inovev EV Simulation Model". This simulation model allows us to calculate the market shares of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) necessary for carmakers to meet the CO2 objectives set by the European Commission in 2025 and 2030. Objectives currently in renegotiation.

- However, CO2 objectives alone do not make it possible to predict the levels of European markets in 2030. To this must be added the various factors that will have an impact on buyers demand (professionals and privates) but also on society as a whole. These factors are fairly well identified today: purchase price of electric vehicles, availability of recharging infrastructure, creation of low or zero emission zones, the transition of the automotive industry, impact on jobs and the economy in general, etc ...

- It is all of these factors (C02 objectives and market demand) which are integrated into the “IES model” and which allow Inovev to establish scenarios for the future of the electric vehicle market in Europe in 2030. Thus, in the tables attached to this analysis, you will find two scenarios specific to CO2 objectives and two scenarios which take market demand into account.

- In summary, to achieve the current CO2 objectives, carmakers have to sell in Europe, in 2030, at least 40% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs (or in a second scenario 30% of BEVs and 25% of PHEVs). However, in the Inovev reference scenario, which takes all the factors into account, 35% of the European market may be made up of BEVs and PHEVs (with 25% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs), which will, by the way, will not allow carmakers to meet the CO2 targets.

- We are therefore talking about a 35% market of BEVs and PHEVs. But 35% of which market? What will the level of the European market be in 2030? Equivalent to 2019 (before the COVID crisis)? to 2020/2021? Or even much lower?

- We talk a lot about the offer of electric vehicles from carmakers, but demand must also be taken into account. On the offer side, the carmakers' policy is always to move towards greater added value: disappearance of small vehicles, push of large vehicles, vehicles with increasingly complex (but really necessary?) functions and equipment. This choice can lead to two types of risk:

1st risk:

üA continuous increase of vehicle prices to reach a level that will no longer be accepted.

üWith the consequence of a sharp drop in the market for new vehicles.

üSome users may turn away from the car, others prefer to keep their vehicle longer.

2nd risk:

üA hole is forming in the range of European carmakers, no one producing small vehicles. This may turn out to be a royal road for the development of non-European carmakers in Europe, in particular Chinese carmakers, who do not necessarily meet the same objectives as European carmakers (search for profitability in particular).

    

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

阅读全文... 35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?

说明

发表于 2021年12月20日

• Production
• Hyundai-Kia
• South Korea

Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new Kia Niro

- Kia unveiled the second generation of the Niro C-segment SUV, which was one of the brand's first models to feature alternative powertrains. The current model is available in hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery-electric (BEV) versions. The new model uses the same engines as the current model.

- Launched in 2016, the first-generation Niro has been sold at 676,000 units, totally. Peak production was reached in 2020 with 137,000 units produced. The best-selling version today is the battery electric version (58% of Niro's sales in 2020 compared to 28% in 2019) and the new generation of the Niro is likely to boost the share of sales of the electric version.

- Inovev forecasts 150,000 sales per year of the new Kia Niro, including 100,000 in the BEV version. This model does not use the E-GMP platform of the Kia EV6, more expensive and exclusively adaptedto battery electric powertrain. Moreover, the Nirois not integrated into the range of Kia EV4, EV5, EV6, EV7, which is the specific Kia battery electric models line-up (the EV5 and EV7 are not yet launched).

- The Kia Niro will be assembled at the Korean plant of Kwangju, alongside the Kia Soul and Sportage which share the same platform. The Kia Niro will therefore not be produced in Europe, even if 75,000 units were sold in 2020 against 55,000 in 2019 and 42,000 in 2018. In the first 10 months of 2021, the Kia Niro sold 73,000 copies in Europe and will certainly exceed 85,000 copies by the end of the year. As a reminder, Kia wants to sell 880,000 electric cars worldwide in 2030, ten times more than in 2020 (88,000 sales).

    

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

阅读全文... Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new Kia Niro

说明

发表于 2021年12月20日

• Production
• Ford
• Argentina
• Thailand
• USA
• South Africa

Inovev forecasts 400,000 units per year of the new Ford Ranger

- Ford has unveiled the fourth generation of its mid-range pickup, the Ranger, the previous generation dated from 2012. Aesthetically speaking, this new generation only seems to be a facelift (the entire front end has been redesigned inspired by the Ford F Series) but in reality everything is new, since the platform is different (widened underbody, extended wheelbase, adaptation to electric motorisations and battery) but the length of the vehicle remains the same (5.36 m).

- The engines have also evolved as Ford now offers a 3-liter V6 diesel in addition to the 2-liter four-cylinder diesel. Importantly, Ford has indicated that a battery electric version will be released in the next two to three years. A 2.3-liter petrol version will be launched next year in the United States and some non-European markets. Also, the new Ford Ranger could be the base to the future Volkswagen Amarok, which has been ended recently.

- The new Ford Ranger will go into production in early 2022 in the four countries where it is already produced today: the United States (for the North American markets), Thailand (for the Asian and European markets) , South Africa (for African markets) and Argentina (for South American markets). Inovev forecasts 400,000 units per year for all of these countries. That's half as much as the Ford F-Series (upper segment pickup), but the Ranger has gradually become the second-best-selling model of the American carmaker, behind the F-Series. The 2012-2021 generation of the model has been a great success since its sales rose from 170,000 in 2013 to 365,000 in 2021, with a peak of 400,000 units in 2019.

    

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

阅读全文... Inovev forecasts 400,000 units per year of the new Ford Ranger

说明

发表于 2021年12月20日

• France
• Production

Automobile production in France in 2021 declined by 37% compared to 2019

- The volume of automobile production in France grew timidly in 2021 compared to 2020 (+ 8%), while it remains well below the level of 2019 (-37%). The level of production therefore remains very low (less than 1.5 million of light vehicles) comparable to the level of the early 1960s, and far from the figures recorded between 1970 and 2005, when the volume was well over 3 million units per year.

- Automobile production suffered from the transfer of small models (A and B segments), such as the Renault Clio, Renault Twingo, Peugeot 207/208, Peugeot 2008, Citroën C3, and mid-range models (C-segment) such as the Renault Mégane, Citroën C4, as well as the progressively decline of D-segment sedans such as the Renault Laguna/Talisman, Peugeot 407/508, Citroën C5, and the start of production of SUVs abroad, such as the Renault Captur, Renault Kadjar, Citroën C3 Aircross or city cars (A-segment) such as the Peugeot 107/108 and Citroën C1 which replaced the Peugeot 106 and Citroën AX/Saxowhich were produced in France.

- Must be added the market share decline of French brands in Europe since 2000, which has accelerated the phenomenon, facing the development of brands such as the Romanian brand Dacia or the Korean brands Hyundai and Kia.

- Renault's share has thus decreased from 10.6% to 7% of the European market in twenty years, Peugeot from 7.7% to 6.4% at the same time and that of Citroën from 5.1%. at 4.3%. The three French brands were unable to offset this drop by increasing exports, which also explains the drop in automobile production in France. Finally, Smart and Toyota were unable to offset the drop in production of the three French brands.

    

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

阅读全文... Automobile production in France in 2021 declined by 37% compared to 2019