说明

发表于 2020年8月13日

• Registrations
• USA

SUVs and pickups will represent 75% of the US market from 2021

- According to forecasts from carmakers based in North America, the US market is expected to decline by nearly 20% in 2020, due to the coronavirus crisis. By comparison, the US market fell by 18% in 2008 compared to 2007, due to the financial crisis, and had again fallen by 21% in 2009 compared to 2008, before resuming the path of growth, from 2010. It was not until 2014 that the American market returned to 2007 pre-crisis levels.

- In 2020, the coronavirus crisis will probably not cause a further decline in the US market in 2021 or a bankruptcy of GM or Chrysler as in 2009.

- But the coronavirus crisis had an unexpected consequence: carmakers, forced to make very significant savings in order not to crash, are focusing on their most profitable models, that is to say SUVs and pickups. Consequently, they giving up on the less profitable models or those which sell in small quantities, in particular the sedans. The Covid-19 therefore played a role of accelerator, because such decisions were already underway at a good number of carmakers, especially the Americans.

- In this context, the market share of SUVs and pick-ups will inevitably continue to increase, so that we can expect a proportion of 75% of sales of SUVs and pick-ups in the USA from 2021, against a proportion of 25% of sedan sales. In the first half of 2020, the proportion is already 73% and 27% respectively (against 71% and 29% in 2019).

    

 

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阅读全文... SUVs and pickups will represent 75% of the US market from 2021

说明

发表于 2020年8月13日

• China
• Registrations

Evolution of the passenger car market share in China according to their origin

- The Chinese passenger car market has been mainly made up for the last fifteen years, of Chinese cars (Geely, Great Wall, Chery, Dongfeng, BYD, GAC, SAIC, etc.), German cars (Volkswagen, Audi, BMW , Mercedes, Porsche), Japanese (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsubishi), American (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Lincoln), Korean (Hyundai, Kia) and at lower level French (Renault, Peugeot, Citroën).

- A significant change in the distribution by origin took place between 2017 and 2020 since:

1. Chinese brands that had managed to reach and exceed 40% of the market in 2017 gradually fell to 34.7% in 2020, a loss of more than 6% in four years.

2. German brands, which had fallen to 20.3% of the market in 2017, have made a spectacular comeback, now reaching 26.8% of the market, a gain of more than 6% in four years.

3. Japanese brands achieved a similar performance, going from 18.1% of the market in 2017 to 23.6% in four years, a gain of 5.5%. The other brands have all seen their market share decline.

4. American brands, on the other hand, lost ground, dropping from 11.5% to 9.0% of the market (-2.5% in four years).

5. Korean brands also lost market share, dropping from 5.1% to 4.4% of the market (-0.7% in four years).

6. French brands have almost disappeared, going from 2.1% to 0.3% of the market (-1.8% in four years).

    

 

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阅读全文... Evolution of the passenger car market share in China according to their origin

说明

发表于 2020年8月13日

• Registrations
• Daimler AG
• USA

The US truck market is dominated by the Daimler group

- The US heavy utility vehicle (HUV) market achieved a good growth between 2010 and 2019, going from 218,000 units in 2010, which was the market's low point after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, to 527,000 units in 2019, which represents an increase of 140% in nine years. The coronavirus crisis put an end to this growth with a 30% drop recorded in the first half of 2020 compared to the first half of 2019. Less than 182,000 units were sold over this period and the total over the year is likely to be at less than 400,000 units, but this will still be twice as many as in 2010.

- One group has dominated the US HUV market since 2010 and its market share continued to increase since that date: it is the Daimler group which is made up on the American market of the Freightliner and Western Star brands (the Sterling brand having been discontinued in 2010) with a market share of 30.6% in 2019.

- The second largest truck seller in the USA is the Paccar group, which is made up of the Kenworth and Peterbilt brands. Its market share reached 19.3% in 2019. This group also owns DAF trucks in Europe but DAFs are not sold in the USA.

- The third largest seller of heavy goods vehicles in the USA is the Ford group (15.1% of the market), now closely followed by the Navistar group (International brand) which has made a strong comeback since 2017. Its market share has reached 14.8% in 2019.

- The Volvo Trucks group (Volvo, Mack) is the last major truck seller in the USA. Its market share reached 8.9% in 2019. The other manufacturers are mainly imports (Isuzu, Hino).

    

 

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阅读全文... The US truck market is dominated by the Daimler group

说明

发表于 2020年8月04日

• Registrations

The European market could end 2020 at -30%

- In the first half of 2020, the European market (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) fell by 39%. In June 2020, only the French market was positive, thanks to the ecological bonus. The other European markets are in decline as no governmental subsidies supported the demand, apart from a reduction in VAT in Germany.

- For the second half of 2020, various announcements have been made by some countries (Great Britain, Spain) to support market demand, however, so far, nothing concrete has been decided. Are public supports going to be put in place in Europe to support demand in 2020? If so, when will they be implemented? In July, August, no decision will be made due to the holidays. Will European markets benefit from the European recovery plan? If decisions are taken in September, the implementation and the induced effect can only materialize in the last quarter of 2020.

- Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, Inovev has established three very short-term scenarios (2020), which are updated based on the latest known elements and which may influence demand:

• A “High” scenario: This most optimistic scenario is based mainly on the implementation of measures supporting demand in all European markets and which will take effect in the last quarter of 2020. Result: a 3rd quarter at -17.5 % + a 4th quarter at -2.5%, meaning a 2nd half at -10% and therefore a 2020 year at -25% (taking into account the drop of 39% in the 1st half).

• A "Ref" scenario: This reference scenario for Inovev is based on the partial implementation of support in Europe (in certain countries only) and a less than expected severe effect of the crisis on the economy. Result: a 2nd semester at -25%, and therefore a 2020 year at -30%.

• A "Low" scenario: This most pessimistic scenario arises in the event that no support decision is made in major markets, or in the event of a second wave of COVID-19. The last half of 2020 would be in line with the first half of 2020 (-39%). Result: A 2nd semester at -37%, and therefore a 2020 year at -35%.

    

 

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阅读全文... The European market could end 2020 at -30%