The fall down rate of European production by manufacturer in 2020
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The fall down rate of European production by manufacturer in 2020
- With an automobile production volume down 28.2% over the first ten months of 2020 compared to the first ten months of 2019, the European Union (including Great Britain) has seen some manufacturers post more significant falls.
- The worst performances were recorded by the Suzuki group whose production fell down by 45.0%, which seems to confirm that this manufacturer is in great difficulty, by the Jaguar Land-Rover group (Tata group) whose production in Europe fell down by 40.2%, followed closely by Honda (-39.9%) which has already announced that it will close its European factories in 2021.
- Suzuki begins to market original Toyota models on the European continent, which is not a good signal for the manufacturer and above all does not benefit to all its European plant located in Hungary.
- The PSA and Renault-Nissan groups recorded poor performance, with production decreases of 34.9% and 34.1% respectively. At PSA, Citroën displayed the biggest drop (-37.9%) and at Renault-Nissan, it was Nissan (-38.8%). This is why the new generations of Citroën C4 and Nissan Qashqai are eagerly awaited by the network.
- The Daimler (-31.6%), Hyundai-Kia (-31.6%) and Ford (-30.2%) groups achieved very average performances, compared to the overall decline in European production. Finally, the manufacturers who did better than the average decline are as follows: the Volkswagen group (-27.0%), the FCA group (-25.7%), the BMW group (-22.6%) and chiefly the Toyota group (-18.6%) and Volvo (-13.5%) which belongs to the Geely group.
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Global market will not return to 2019 level until 2024
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Global market will not return to 2019 level until 2024
- The coronavirus crisis led the population to be confined for several months as well as to the closure of factories and automotive dealers for a period of time varying from one region to another and from one manufacturer to another. But this time was long enough for the world market to collapse by 15% to 30% in 2020 depending on the region.
- According to Inovev, the global automotive market will not return to 2019 levels until 2024.
- Indeed, taking into account our market forecasts by country and by region between 2020 and 2025, we observe that the three largest world markets - Europe, China and the United States - will total 50.6 million registrations. (PC + LCV) in 2020 compared to 60.8 million units in 2019, 54.1 million units in 2021, 56.5 million units in 2022, 58.9 million in 2023 and 60.8 million in 2024. We can see that the level of 2019 will only be reached again from 2024.
- If we take into account all the world markets, the situation remains the same. Our forecasts of the world market indeed show 75.9 million registrations in 2020 against 89.3 million units (which represents a decrease of 15%), 80.8 million units in 2021, 83, 8 million units in 2022, 87.1 million units in 2023 and 89.6 million units in 2024. The level of 2019 will only be reached again from 2024.
- Note that the year 2019 was not a production record, since the years 2016, 2017, 2018 had a higher number of registrations: 91.8 million in 2016, 94.0 million in 2017 and 93, 3 million in 2018.
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Volkswagen prepares to launch its ID2 electric model
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Volkswagen prepares to launch its ID2 electric model
- After the launch in 2020 of the 100% electric Volkswagen ID3 and ID4, of which 20,000 units have already been sold in Europe during the first 10 months of 2020 (their marketing began last July), the manufacturer is already preparing the launch of the ID2 scheduled for 2023. This 100% electric model based on the MEB platform, like the ID3 and ID4 of segment C, will be the size of a Polo and will therefore complete the range of IDs to segment B. The future ID2 will thus compete with the Renault Zoé, Peugeot e-208 and Opel e-Corsa which represent a good part of the sales of electric cars in Europe.
- It will be sold at a similar price, close to 30,000 euros, a Zoé being offered at 32,300 euros, an e-208 at 32,300 euros and an e-Corsa at 31,300 euros (excluding bonuses). According to our information, the future Volkswagen ID2 will be produced in Emden (Germany) from 2023, alongside its Seat and Skoda derivatives. This plant should also host the future A-segment Volkswagen ID1 which will replace the electric Up, as well as its derivatives Seat and Skoda which will replace the electric Mii and Citigo now manufactured in Bratislava. The future ID1 models and derivatives will be offered at a price close to 20,000 euros.
- Before the ID1 and ID2, the German manufacturer should launch the ID5 (segment D) in 2021 and the ID Buzz (Kombi) in 2022, still on the MEB platform. The range of electric cars of the Volkswagen group is therefore being built at high speed, since in 2023, there should be no less than a dozen different models in its European range, sold under the brands Volkswagen, Seat and Skoda. Audi and Porsche will also have their own models (see next article).
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Nissan Micra launched in 2016 completely missed its mark
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Nissan Micra launched in 2016 completely missed its mark
- The Nissan Micra is the Japanese manufacturer's B-segment sedan which is sold in Europe, and incidentally in South America, China and Japan where its distribution is very modest. In Europe, the Nissan Micra enjoyed good circulation between 1995 and 2005, with annual sales of around 150,000 units per year. This model was then manufactured in Great Britain and the manufacturer did not plan to relocate this model to a low-cost country.
- The idea of relocating the Micra and making it a low-cost model compared to a Toyota Yaris manufactured in France, appeared after 2005. The management of the manufacturer at the time decided to create a new generation of Micra made in India. for Europe and emerging countries. The operation was more or less inspired by the creation of the Dacia Logan made in Romania.
- Unfortunately, the new Micra manufactured in India from 2010 encountered strong competition from small cars already present in India, with an uncompetitive price. In Europe, the model had a mixed career, with sales ranging between 80,000 and 120,000 units per year. This was a volume 30% lower than that recorded by the old Micra in the years 1995-2005. Carlos Ghosn, then CEO of Nissan, replaced this model in 2016 with a new Micra made in France and closely derived from the Renault Clio. He had set a sales target of 130,000 sales per year for this new model. However, this new Micra has never been able to reach 100,000 annual sales, going from 94,000 units in 2017 to 73,000 in 2018, 54,000 in 2019 and less than 40,000 in 2020.
- This Nissan Micra manufactured in France has completely missed its target.
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Audi prepares to launch the Q4 e-tron and Q5 e-tron
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Audi prepares to launch the Q4 e-tron and Q5 e-tron
- Inovev has already presented the upcoming launch of the Q4 e-tron C-segment SUV, which, as its name suggests, will be located in the manufacturer's range between the Q3 and Q5. This model, which should see the light of day in 2021, will be based on the MEB platform and will probably be produced in one of the two Audi factories located in Germany (Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm). It will precede the launch in 2022 of the Q5 e-tronwhich has just been announced and which should logically be manufactured in Mexico, like its version with thermal engine. Given that the current price of the E-tron (which should have been called Q6 e-tron) is between 72,000 euros and 96,000 euros, and between 75,000 euros and 99,000 euros in its Sportback version, and that the Estimated price of the Q4 e-tron is around 60,000 euros, it can be deduced that the price of the Q5 e-tron could be between 65,000 euros and 75,000 euros, making it an expensive vehicle therefore unlikely to be sold in large quantities. The future Q5 e-tron will probably be offered as a standard version and as a Sportback version.
- Note that the future D-segment Audi Q5 e-tron will have its counterpart at Porsche, it is the future Macan in its electric version which should be launched in 2022. With the Porsche Taycan and its Audi E-tron GT counterpart, there should be six different 100% electric models from these two brands in 2023, not counting the Sportback versions.
- The Volkswagen group has taken great care to separate the 100% electric ranges of Volkswagen-Seat-Skoda from those of Audi-Porsche-Bentley. There will be no direct link between the two divisions regarding this type of models.
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