Category Blog

说明: 发表于 2020年10月19日

Analysis: Which vehicles will be covered by the potential tax on the “heaviest” light vehicles sold in France

- A bill project has been communicated these recent weeks, which intends to tax vehicles sold in France according to their weight. The bill project targets vehicles over 1400 kg (curb weight) and for this purpose envisages a penalty of 10 euros per kilo above a weight of 1400 kilos. No tax would be applied for models under 1400 kilos. The aim of the bill is to push buyers to acquire lighter vehicles and small electric vehicles, mainly from the A-segment, a category where the offer is still underdeveloped.

- Inovev analysed the models sold in France that would be the most affected by this measure and established a scenario based on vehicles sold and produced in France in 2019.

- Thus, totally, 33% of vehicles sold in France in 2019 could be impacted, i.e. 890,000 units. Of these 890,000 units sold, 350,000 are produced in France and would therefore be affected by this decision (ie 39%). These 347,000 units produced in France represent 16% of the yearly production in France.

- Which vehicles could be impacted?

• For passenger cars (PCs), the most impacted segments in France (based on 2019 sales) would be the upper C/D/E/F segments which represent 52% of the 890 000 units. In the B-segment (7% of the vehicles impacted) consists mainly of battery electric vehicles, including the Renault Zoé. However, the impact of this measure on the Renault Zoe should be moderate, because on one hand the penalty would be quite low (around 700 Euros) and on the other hand the bonuses available today would strongly offset this tax.
It should be noted that among all the vehicles affected, SUVs represent 352,000 units or 66% of them.

• Light utility vehicles (LUVs) represent 38% of the vehicles affected, mainly in the upper segments N1-2 and N1-3, but also the N1-1 in electric motorization. Pick-ups represent another highly impacted category, but low in volume (15,000 sales).

- In France, the carmakers who would be the most affected would be Renault (18% of the vehicles targeted) which markets and produces in France all of its utility vehicles, the electric Renault Zoé and its high range (Scénic, Talisman, Espace). Volkswagen (10%) and Peugeot (10%) would also be strongly impacted.

- In terms of volume, the most impacted passenger cars would be the Renault Scénic, Citroën C5 Aircross, Peugeot 5008, Volkswagen Tiguan, Volkswagen T-Roc, Nissan Qashqai and Renault Zoé. The most impacted LUV models would be the Renault Master, Renault Trafic, Fiat Ducato, Peugeot Boxer, Citroën Jumper, Peugeot Expert and Citroën Jumpy.

- Could this project bill be also applied by other European countries? It seems complicated at first glance because European countries rarely agree on a specific economic measure and because the interests are very different from one country to another. Germany, for example, could not take up this proposed measure as it is proposed in France, because the average weight of vehicles produced in this country as well as those sold locally is much higher than in France. However, a measure of this type but at a different level (at a higher weight in Germany?) is not totally impossible, because environmental issues must be played out at a European level.

- Finally, it should be noted that, in France, this bill project will probably not be proposed for the 2021 budget but the proposal could nevertheless come back from 2022.

Note to the reader: This analysis was written and published before the announcement of new amendments, including the latest for a weight tax for non-electric passenger vehicles (thermal and hybrid) with a weight over 1,800 kg. Therefore, a second analysis will be published soon.

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说明: 发表于 2020年9月30日

The arrival of Chinese models in Europe could materialize with BEVs

- At the beginning of the 2000s a few number of Chinese carmakers attempted to market products in Europe (notably Landwind, Brilliance) but these attempts were unsuccessful. Geely had another strategy (and opportunity): the takeover of a European carmaker in 2010 (Volvo) which quickly enabled Geely to acquire the technologies developed by an established carmaker but also to better understand the European market.

- But the priority for Chinese carmakers is above all to supply their fast-growing national market before focusing on the European market (growth interrupted since 2018 should resume from 2021). The market share of Chinese carmakers in China is still low (it does not exceed 35%) and they can therefore further strengthen their presence in this market. For this, the Chinese government is strongly pushing for a greater concentration of the Chinese automobile industry to create carmakers with the capacity to meet the challenges of today and of the future (electrification, ADAS ...).

- In Europe, however, the presence of Chinese electric vehicles is already a reality. MG (former English brand) is trying to penetrate the European market with a low-cost B-segment electric SUV (10,000 sales per year). Also, the future Electric Smart and Electric Dacia produced in China will be exported to Europe. The electric car market in Europe is emerging, and potentially more easily penetrated than the combustion engine market, especially for low-cost vehicles.

- The switch from the European A-segment from thermal to electric (therefore more expensive) could create an opportunity for Chinese carmakers to establish themselves in this segment, with electric vehicles that are cheaper than European electric vehicles. China has indeed become an expert in 100% electric vehicles at low prices (at least locally). Inovev has analysed and compared the prices of electric vehicles sold in China and in Europe. The results of this analysis will be available soon in a specific study.

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说明: 发表于 2020年9月30日

Registrations

Are compact MPVs going to disappear in Europe?

- We saw in a recent analysis that D & E segments MPVs are on the way out. This is somewhat what is likely to happen with C-segment MPVs (compact MPVs) as well. Their market share in Europe fell from 10% in 2005 to 6% in 2014 and 2% in 2020. At this level, there will no longer be a compact MPV marketed in Europe in two or three years. In the USA, compact MPVs are non-existent. In China, they catch a relatively modest market share.

- When we look at the product plan of carmakers located in Europe, we see that Renault (pioneer and promoter of the compact MPV) has announced the non-replacement of its Scenic MPV which should be discontinued in 2023. Citroën will not replace its C4 Space Tourer (ex-Picasso). Volkswagen will not replace its Touran at the end of its product life. Ford discontinued its C-Max last year. Opel has abandoned the Zafira, which is the heir to a long line of success. Toyota stopped its Verso and Kia did with its Carens in 2019. The Dacia Lodgy seems condemned for lack of success.

- Paradoxically, two Premium models remain, the Mercedes Classe B and the BMW Active Tourer, which continue their career, despite relatively modest volumes. The B-Class has just been renewed and the Active Tourer will be renewed next year. SUVs therefore seem to have killed the compact MPVs of generalist carmakers, but not those of Premium carmakers. Perhaps having entered this specific market later will help premium carmakers to get a (temporary?) market for their compact MPVs.

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说明: 发表于 2020年9月30日

Production

Can we expect future carmakers merging?

- According to Inovev, global automobile production lost 15.5 million of passenger cars (PCs) and utility vehicles (UVs) in the first seven months of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, broken down into 11.2 million passenger cars and 4.3 million utility vehicles. Over the year 2020 as a whole, this loss in produced vehicles could ultimately approach 20 million.

- In these special conditions, it is likely that some carmakers will seek to accelerate the creation of new alliances or new partnerships in order to limit their production costs and compensate the loss of such a large quantity of vehicles. Especially as the investments for technological transformations (electrification, ADAS,...) are still necessary.

- Already, before the Covid-19 crisis, several alliances had been announced, such as that of PSA with FCA, or that of Volkswagen with Ford. New alliances are expected, notably Toyota's with Suzuki already vaguely sketched out, and others still unknown to this day.

- More recently GM and Honda have joined forces to develop common platforms for the American market. The future of Tata Motors and its Jaguar and Land Rover subsidiaries hit hard by the Covid-19 crisis and Brexit is about to be redefined. In China, the regrouping of brands could accelerate to give birth to large international groups capable of competing with Volkswagen, Toyota or Renault-Nissan.

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说明: 发表于 2020年9月30日

Jaguar Land Rover experiences the biggest crisis in its history

- The British Premium brands Jaguar and Land Rover were sold by Ford to the Tata Motors in 2008. The Indian carmaker managed these two luxury brands well until 2017, as the production of the two brands rose from 255,000 units in 2008 to 501,000 in 2015, doubling the audience in seven years. The peak of production was reached in 2017, with more than 600,000 units produced and the announcement of the opening of a new plant in Slovakia. The situation began to deteriorate from 2018, with production falling to 578,000 units and then 545,000 in 2019. In 2020, the situation declined significantly, with both the consequences of the Covid-19 crisis and fears about a future no-deal Brexit, but also due to a product range which didn’t meet the market demand (especially for Jaguar).

- Production fell to 190,000 units in the first seven months of 2020, a drop of nearly 40% from the first seven months of 2019, a much larger drop than other carmakers, which are experiencing declines between 25% and 30%, the average for all carmakers being equal to 29%.

- The situation is more catastrophic for Jaguar (-51% compared to 2019) than for Land Rover (-34%), in particular because Jaguar sedans no longer have audiences. The XE (segment D) crumbles by 70% and the XF (segment E) by 85% ... As for the XJ (segment F), it has disappeared from the product range. The Jaguar brand is so vulnerable that it may disappear at the end.

- One of the viable solutions for a renaissance would be the cession of Jaguar to another carmaker who would have the capacity to rebuild a whole new range of attractive sedans, as the Jaguar MK II and XJ6 had been in the 1960s and 1970s.