German carmakers' decline in China
- 说明
German carmakers' decline in China
- German carmakers (Volkswagen Mercedes, BMW) entered the Chinese market in the 1980s and 1990s. The Volkswagen group immediately took the leading position over the foreign and Chinese competition. It went as far as producing more than 4 million cars per year, with peak production reaching 2018. From 2019-2020, the context completely changed as the demand for electric cars (as well as supply) began to explode, a consequence of a Chinese strategy aimed at promoting electric vehicles, for which Chinese carmakers (primarily BYD )where prepared for decades with heavy investments, as well as the American Tesla, which was then ahead of other carmakers in this market.
- Volkswagen's sales declined sharply at that time, dropping from 4 million to 3 million units in two years (between 2019 and 2021). The group managed to resist for two years (between 2021 and 2023), mainly thanks to the strong sales performance of Audi, the group's premium subsidiary. But the year 2024 saw a further decline for the Volkswagen group, to 2.75 million units.
- Independent German premium carmakers Mercedes and BMW managed to make progress through 2023, thanks to their image as makers of prestigious cars, a category in which Chinese carmakers were not yet very present. 2024 saw their first real decline facing the development of Premium Chinese brands.
- Overall, the market share of the Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW groups has gradually fallen from 20% in 2017 to 16% in 2024, and the coming years are likely to be even more difficult, as Chinese customers increasingly turn to Chinese brands that have made enormous progress over the past ten years.
Volkswagen has unveiled what will become the ID1 in 2027
- 说明
Volkswagen has unveiled what will become the ID1 in 2027
- Volkswagen has unveiled the concept car that will become the ID1 in 2027, the smallest battery electric model in the ID range, which is currently composed of the ID3, ID4, ID5, ID6 (in China only) and ID7.
- The ID1 model will therefore be very close to this concept car. Aesthetically close to the Renault R5 E-Tech launched in the fall of 2024, the 5-door sedan will rather be the competitor of the future Renault Twingo E-Tech planned for 2026 or even of its Dacia version, the launch date of which is not yet known.
- The two carmakers initially considered a partnership to produce their future A-segment electric car, which was known to be difficult to make profitable. But it turned out that too many interests diverged, particularly regarding the future vehicle's platform and the assembly site. Today, the two carmakers find themselves facing off as direct rivals.
- The future Renault Twingo and Volkswagen ID1 will each have their own platform and assembly site: Novo Mesto (Slovenia) for the Twingo and Palmela (Portugal) for the ID1. Their selling price will be similar: around 20,000 euros.
- As a reminder, Volkswagen will launch its B-segment ID2 (meaning larger and more expensive than the ID1: around €25,000) in 2026, with this model to be assembled at the Martorell (Spain) alongside its Skoda Epiq and CupraRaval derivatives. This ID2 will compete with the Renault R5 E-Tech, Citroën e-C3 and Fiat Grande Panda, while the ID2X will rival the Renault 4 E-Tech.
- The ID1 concept car measures 3.88 m in length, 1.82 m in width, and 1.49 m in height. Compared to the previous A-segment Volkswagen Up, the model is 34 cm longer, 18 cm wider, and equal in height. According to Inovev, the production ID1 could reach a production volume of 90,000 units by 2030, 15,000 more than the ID2.
Inovev expects 90,000 units of the new Toyota CHR+ to be produced in 2030
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Inovev expects 90,000 units of the new Toyota CHR+ to be produced in 2030
- Toyota has unveiled its new all-electric C-segment SUV, the CHR+, which has nothing to do with the CHR full-hybrid (F-HEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models we already know.
- While the CHR full-hybrid and plug-in hybrid are 4.36 m long, the new CHR+ (which does not replace the CHR) is 16 cm longer and measures 4.52 m. It is almost as long as the Volkswagen ID4 (4.58 m), its main competitor.
- Within the Toyota range, the CHR+ is the second 100% electric production model after the 4.69 m long BZ4X SUV which is located in the D segment. Curiously, Toyota announces a price of 45,000 euros for the CHR+ while the BZ4X is significantly cheaper (40,000 euros). Remember that the CHR is priced from 35,000 (F-HEV) to 40,000 euros (PHEV).
- Last year, the Toyota CHR sold 103,000 units in Europe (30 countries = EU + UK + Norway + Switzerland) + 10,000 units in Turkey + 13,000 units in the rest of the world, making a total of 126,000 units produced at the Adapazari site in Turkey. This site also manufactured 34,000 Toyota Corollas for the local market. In total, this has therefore produced 160,000 cars in 2024, for a capacity of 250,000 cars per year. This leaves 90,000 units of unused capacity. This is why the new CHR+ will be produced at the Adapazari site, with a production potential of 90,000 units per year (the BZ4X did not exceed 50,000 units produced in 2024). According to Inovev, this volume will not be reached before 2030.
- The CHR+ receives a 167 hp (123 kW) or 224 hp (165 kW) electric motor coupled with a 58 kWh or 77 kWh battery (73 kWh in the BZ4X) allowing a range of 600 km according to the WLTP cycle. The four-wheel drive version will be equipped with a more powerful 343 hp (252 kW) electric motor with the 77 kWh battery.
Toyota wants to enter the Low Speed Electric Vehicle (LSEV) market with the FT-ME
- 说明
Toyota wants to enter the Low Speed Electric Vehicle (LSEV) market with the FT-ME
- The world's leading carmaker since 2020, the Toyota group is beginning to take an interest in battery electric motorization. After the Lexus UX, Toyota BZ4X, Lexus RZ and Toyota CHR+, the Japanese carmaker wants to enter the Low Speed Electric Vehicle (LSEV) market (also known as L6/L7-segment quadricycles), a market occupied in Europe in part by the Stellantis group with the Citroën Ami, Fiat Topolino and Opel Rocks. Few major carmakers (such as Volkswagen or Hyundai-Kia) are still interested in this market, which has so far been modest in volume but which could grow with the new constraints linked to the challenges of traffic in urban environments, the prices of cars which have increased significantly in recent years and have made cars unaffordable for part of the population, and increasingly strict CO2 standards, without switching to the "all bicycle" option.
- Since the Twizy, Renault has returned to this market of battery electric cars, with the Mobilize Duo (which replaces the Twizy) sold for 10,000 euros (a Citroën Ami costs 8,000 euros and a Fiat Topolino 9,900 euros). Toyota will have to approach these prices if it wants to develop in this market. The model presented by the Japanese carmaker and named FT-ME measures 2.50 m long, which was the length of the first Smart sold in Europe at the beginning of the 2000s… Like the former Smart Fortwo, the Toyota FT-ME has a tailgate at the rear allowing access to a loading volume behind the seats.
- However, we can question the engine choice. Indeed, if Toyota wants to offer an even more affordable and a ligther model, why not launch such a model in a thermal version that will consume and pollute little, while remaining practical and maneuverable.
The global market (passenger cars + light commercial vehicles) increased by 1.7% in 2024 compared to 2023
- 说明
The global market (passenger cars + light commercial vehicles) increased by 1.7% in 2024 compared to 2023
- According to Inovev, the global automotive market (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) increased by 1.7% in 2024 compared to 2023. This weak growth reflects a clear slowdown in the growth of global production since 2023 ended with an increase of 12.9% compared to 2022, after three years of crisis. The years 2020, 2021 and 2022 were marked by the COVID crisis (2020), then by the semiconductor crisis (2021), then by the supply crisis (2022) amplified by the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war and by the strong inflation growth.
- These three years have resulted in a total loss of between 30 million and 40 million vehicles, but the catch-up in 2023 and 2024 has only offset a small part of this volume, returning to a level reached in 2019, but which was already lower than those of the years 2016-2017-2018. The volume of new vehicle registrations (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) barely exceeds 82.2 million units in 2024, compared to nearly 81 million in 2023, 82.2 million in 2019 and 86 million in 2018.
- The most dynamic countries in 2024 were curiously Russia and Ukraine, two countries at war with each other, but apparently only affecting a small part of Ukraine today (20% of the territory located in the east of the country) pending a hypothetical ceasefire. The Russian market grew by 48% in 2024 and Ukraine by 24%, illustrating a partial recovery after two lean years. We also note the good performance of Canada (+9.0%) and Mexico (+9.9%), two countries targeted by the Trump administration (project of additional tariff on their exports to US). Brazil also performed well (+7.6%).
- Europe was relatively stable (-0.7%), will S.Korea (-5.6%), Japan (-7.5%) and Argentina (-5.9%) declined. Small increases for China (+3%),India (+3.4%) and the USA (+2.4%).