Chinese carmakers represent 45% of the Russian market in the first 6 months of 2023
The Russian passenger car market fell by 3% in the first half of 2023, compared to the first half of 2022, with a volume of 358,921 passenger cars compared to 370,228 units the previous year. We should logically reach 700,000 units over the whole of 2023, if the war with Ukraine continues, whereas in 2021, before the start of the war, we were still at a level close to 1,700 000 units.
 
By carmaker, the Lada brand (Avtovaz group), which regained its independence last year, occupies 40% of the market, which had not happened for several decades, but in a strongly shrunken market. However, Lada's sales volume doubled year-on-year, from 75,000 units in the first half of 2022 to 144,000 units in the first half of 2023. But remember that in the first six months of 2021, Lada was selling in Russia 200,000 cars.
 
Behind Lada, we note the presence of the Russian firm UAZ and especially the Chinese brands Chery, Great Wall, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng and FAW which represent a total of 45% of the Russian market in the first half of 2023 (and 162,000 cars sold) against 11% in the first half of 2022 (and 39,000 cars sold).
 
All European, Japanese and Korean carmakers left the Russian market, following the outbreak of the war between Ukraine and Russia, which left the field open to Chinese carmakers.
 
BEVs currently represent almost a null share of the Russian market. As for the best-selling car in Russia, it is the Lada Vesta, a low-end model designed by Renault when Renault owned Avtovaz.
The Ford F-150 Lightning (BEV) only found 10,000 customers in the first 6 months of 2023
Battery electric vehicles (BEV) represent 6.5% of the US market in the first half of 2023, a much smaller share than that of the Chinese market or the European market, despite Tesla's strong presence in this market. The best-selling model, all engines combined, on the US market is the Ford F-Series, which has held this position for decades, ahead of the Chevrolet Silverado and Ram pick-ups as always.
 
Its battery electric version named F-150 Lightning is based on the shortest version of the Ford F-Series and has been on the market since the first half of 2022, however, it has received few orders. A volume of 10,560 copies was sold on the USA market during the first six months of 2023 (compared to 432 units in the first six months of 2022). This represents less than 2.8% of total Ford F-Series sales in this market in the first half of 2023.
 
The Ford F-150 Lightning is BEV's tenth sale in the US market in the first half of 2023, far behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 which together record more than 320,000 sales. The Ford F-150 Lightning is also behind the Chevrolet Bolt (33,659 sales), Tesla Model S (19,100 sales), Volkswagen ID4 (16,448 sales), Ford Mustang Mach E (14,040 sales), Hyundai Ioniq 5 (13 641 sales), Tesla Model X (11,900 sales) and BMW i4 (11,004 sales).
 
Ford will therefore have to work hard to encourage pick-up customers to turn to electric, which could also be a test for the GM and Stellantis groups which are preparing to market their large pick-ups (Silverado and Ram) in battery electric version.
Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year of the new Mitsubishi Colt in Europe
The renewal of the European models range of the Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi continues. After the presentation and then the launch of the new B-segment SUV named ASX, rebranded version of the Renault Captur (made in Spain), Mitsubishi is presenting and preparing to market the new B-segment sedan, rebranded version of the Renault Clio (made in Turkey and Slovenia). This new model is called Colt, thus taking the name of an old Mitsubishi model which has not been marketed in Europe since 1999. The new Mitsubishi Colt differs from the Renault Clio simply by the logo and some finishing details.
 
The engines are also the same as the Renault Clio’s ones, namely the 3-cylinder petrol 1.0 MPI with turbo (90 hp) or without turbo (65 hp) and the 4-cylinder 1.6 petrol full hybrid of 140 hp. The 1.3 petrol and 1.5 diesel are not available.
 
Mitsubishi, which almost disappeared from the European market, is counting on its new ASX and Colt models derived from Renault models to recover and revive its sales in this market, which fell to 57,000 units in 2022 (compared to 100,000 in 2009 and 200,000 in 1999). But nothing is less certain, because customers will always prefer the original to the copy and Mitsubishi's customer base in Europe has become extremely tenuous with a very sparse sales network.
 
In addition, the new Mitsubishi Colt should replace the Mitsubishi Space Star whose origins date back to 2013, which represents a very long life cycle, and of which less than 27,000 copies were sold on the European market in 2022 against 34,000 in 2021. Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year in Europe of the new Mitsubishi Colt produced in Spain.
Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new Fiat 600
The Fiat 500 is a small 3-door sedan available in a thermal version (500) and in a battery electric version (500 e). Until recently it was supplemented by two 5-door versions: the Fiat 500 L (estate) and the Fiat 500 X (SUV). After a few years, these two 5-door versions gradually saw their sales plummet. Fiat's response to this situation is the launch of two new 5-door versions, the 600 (with internal combustion engine) and the 600 e (with a 100% electric motor) launched at the end of 2023.
 
The Fiat 600 and '600 e' may target not only former 500 L and 500 X customers but also some Fiat 500 customers, especially those who have had children: the Fiat 600 is more spacious as it is 4.17 m long, while the Fiat 500 does not exceed 3.57 m. Like the Fiat 500, the Fiat 600 takes the name of a mythical model of the brand, produced in Italy at nearly 2,7 million units between 1955 and 1969. Fiat intends to capitalize on this name as it has already done with the 500.
 
The new model generally takes the line of the 500 X but it is however very different because it adopts the e-CMP platform of the Peugeot 2008, Opel Mokka, DS 3 and Jeep Avenger, and no longer a Fiat platform. The engines also come from these models, meaning a petrol engine and a 100% electric engine (BEV). Its electric motor (600 e) delivers 156 hp (115 kW) and its battery offers a capacity of 54 kWh which allows a range of 400 km according to the WLTP cycle. For the thermal version (600), it is a mild-hybrid (MHEV) as on the Fiat 500 and Fiat Panda, based this time on the 1.2-litre three-cylinder petrol engine with 130 hp already known from Stellantis.
 
The Fiat 600 will compete with B-segment SUVs such as the Renault Captur, Peugeot 2008, Citroën C3 Aircross, Jeep Avenger, Opel Mokka, Ford Puma, VW Taigo, etc. It will be produed in Tichy (Poland) alongside the Jeep Avenger and Fiat 500. Inovev forecasts 100,000 sales per year of the new Fiat 600 (in its two engines, thermal and battery electric). As we can see on the graph, the launch of this model will not be enough for Fiat to regain the volumes reached in 2016 of the whole 500 family models.
The Tesla brand is becoming very dependent on China
The Californian brand of battery electric vehicles, Tesla has produced nearly 4.5 million cars worldwide since its creation in 2012 and just over 1.3 million cars in 2022, including 727,000 units in China (which has been the brand's leading producer since 2021), 548,000 units in the United States and 41,000 units in Europe (which just started last year).
 
For 2023, Inovev forecasts a global production of 1.65 million Tesla cars, broken down as follows: 843,000 units in China, 656,000 units in the United States and 150,000 units in Europe.
 
China will remain the brand's leading producer this year, although some of the cars that were exported to Europe will no longer be, because Tesla has decided to produce in Europe most of the Model sold in Europe. A good part of the Tesla models sold in Europe came from China in 2022 and all of them in 2021, when production in Europe had not started.
 
Under these conditions, Tesla depends a lot on China, and the construction of a Tesla factory in Mexico can be interpreted, among other things, as a desire to depend less on China.
 
In terms of sales, it is interesting to note that in 2022 Tesla's leading market remains the United States ahead of China, but in 2023, we should see these two countries buying as many Teslas. Europe is the third market for the Californian brand, buying half as many Tesla cars as China or the United States in 2022, but the year 2023 should see the gap between the three countries narrow. Canada is Tesla's fourth largest market.
 
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