- Passenger car production volume is down 11% in Europe (29 countries) in the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021, to 4.2 million units from 4.7 million, but the only producing country that is progressing this year is France (+6.7%) which benefits partly from the increase in production rates of the new Peugeot 308 (in Mulhouse) as well as the good performance of the Opel Mokka (in Poissy), while that the fall (in Douai) of the Renault Espace, Scenic and Talisman is offset by the increased production rates of the electric Mégane E-Tech. Similarly, the arrival of the Fiat Scudo (in Valenciennes) compensated for the stoppage of the Fiat Talento (in Sandouville). It should be noted, however, that the volume of production in France had continued to decrease between 2017 and 2021, falling from 1.75 million to 0.92 million (representing a drop of 47.5% in four years). It was still 2.55 million in 2007 and even 3.11 million in 2005.

- The production results of the other European countries in 2022 (first half) are all down. For example, we note -3.7% in Germany, which remains the leading producer country in Europe, -21.3% in Spain, -19.1% in Great Britain and -12.4% in Italy.

- The countries of Eastern Europe achieve even poorer scores, in particular because the segment A models that were manufactured there tend to disappear. This is the case with the Peugeot 108, Citroën C1, Skoda Citigo, Seat Mii, Volkswagen Up, Smart Forfour, etc. In addition, the Fiat 500 made in Poland is increasingly cannibalized by the electric Fiat 500 made in Italy.

- Added to this was the overall decline in the European market (-13.8%) which affected all carmakers.

- The Volkswagen group has just made two important strategic decisions: the decision to anticipate the restyling of the ID3 and to carry it out at the end of the year, and on the other hand the decision to replace the chairman and general manager of the carmaker. These decisions are probably linked to the disappointing sales of the 100% electric ID3 which was to gradually replace the Volkswagen Golf according to the management of the company, that is to say the best-selling car in Europe for decades, but the ID3 does not even manage to be in first position among electric car sales in Europe, neither in 2021 nor in 2022.

- The figures for 2022 are even down sharply (-45%) compared to the previous year and the ID3 is now only in ninth position on the electric car market. The Volkswagen ID4 is ahead of the ID3, but it is only in fourth position, behind the Fiat 500 e, Peugeot e-208 and Renault Zoé.

- For the ID3, it is a flagrant failure, since it is even overtaken by the Tesla Model Y sold more expensively. The production capacities that had been installed for it (we were talking about 100,000 copies per year in Zwickau) are now oversized since sales of the ID3 represent only 17,000 units in the first half of 2022, i.e. a potential of 35 000 units over the year.

- These mixed results of the ID3 and ID4 will perhaps have to force the Volkswagen group to rethink its BEV strategy and to offer new, more attractive products at more studied prices.

- The Ford group is one of the last major carmakers (with Toyota and GM) to now direct its industrial and commercial policy towards electric vehicles, which was not the case two or three years ago. It is therefore aiming for a production capacity of around 600,000 100% electric vehicles worldwide by January 1, 2024, i.e. 10% of its total production capacity and 15% of its actual production on that date. In addition, Ford claims to be able to guarantee its supply of batteries, i.e. 60 GWh. Its objective is to produce by this date 270,000 Mustang Mach-E per year for North America, Europe and China, 150,000 F-Series Lightning for North America, 150,000 electric light commercial vehicles for the America and Europe, and 30,000 units of an all-new SUV for Europe (on Volkswagen platform).

- Ford thinks it can double these objectives between 2024 and 2026 (to 1,200,000 units) and triple these objectives between 2026 and 2028 (to 1,800,000 units), depending on the arrival of new 100% electric Ford models on the Volkswagen platform which should multiply in Europe and China.

- Note that this production will be divided equally between North America, Europe and China. In Europe, for example, the Cologne and Valencia factories will be put to use from 2023-2024 – even if Ford recently decided to postpone its investments in Spain – with the launch of new 100% electric models on the Volkswagen platform. These factories should together produce 200,000 cars per year by 2024, 400,000 cars per year by 2026 and 600,000 cars per year by 2028.

- The CEO of the Stellantis group, Carlos Tavares, has said in recent weeks that his group was less exposed to political and economic risks in China than were the Volkswagen and General Motors groups, which are much more exposed because they sell 20 to 25 times more cars in China than Stellantis.

- It is true that VW and GM sold up to 4 million cars a year on the Chinese market (against 750,000 PSAs at their best), but the two leading groups in China have seen their sales drop significantly, to 3 million in 2022 for VW and 2 million for GM. The decline of the two carmakers on the Chinese market is therefore already underway and should continue in the coming years, because Chinese customers now have much more confidence in Chinese brands which have made great progress in quality and design in recent years, without until their prices have risen significantly.

- Sales of Chinese cars have thus increased significantly over the past three years, exceeding for the first time 9 million units per year in 2022 (passenger cars) which represents an overall market share of 43.5% without counting the Baojun and the Wulings which are counted in the GM group. The electrification of the market has also reinforced the growth of Chinese brands whose BEV offer is numerous and competitive, even if Tesla monopolizes part of it (18% of the BEV market). Foreign carmakers like VW and GM have not put together a BEV offer capable of competing with the Chinese offer or that of Tesla.

- In conclusion, the VW and GM groups are exposed but much less than they were three or four years ago.