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Published: 03 December 2021

• Production
• Germany

Germany is the big loser in European growth in 2021

- While European production of light vehicles (PC and LUV) increased by only 6.3% in the first nine months of 2021 compared to the first nine months of 2020, while it had lost 25.7% in 2020 by Compared to 2019, Germany is the only country (along with Poland and Slovenia) not to experience growth this year. German production is down 3% in the first nine months of 2021 compared to the first nine months of 2020.

- There are many interpretations of this German production which is not progressing: if we put aside the semiconductor crisis which does not only affect German carmakers, perhaps this is the consequence of the forced electrification of vehicles imposed to carmaker in a country which is by far the main producer of thermal cars in Europe, and incidentally the main producer of electric and hybrid cars in Europe.

- In addition, Germany is one of the last major producing countries to relocate a significant part of its production, and it seems that the country suffers from this strategy (as France did several years ago), whether from Volkswagen (Spain, Portugal), Audi (Hungary, Mexico), BMW (Netherlands, Mexico) or Mercedes (Hungary, Mexico).

- Must be added the declining influence of the former German D-segment best selling sedans and the process of finalising the transfer of these models to China produced and sold locally.

- Finally, the declined influence of Ford and Opel in the German industrial system completes this analysis of the German automobile production.

    

 

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Published: 03 December 2021

• Registrations
• Toyota

The Toyota Yaris was the best hybrid model sold over the 9 months of 2021

The best-selling xEVs models by category in Europe over 9 months 2021:

- Regarding battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model, with 96,524 units (+93% compared to the first nine months of 2020), ahead of the Volkswagen ID3 (51,841 units; +678%), the Renault Zoé (61,286 units; -24%), the Volkswagen ID4 (37,400 units), the Hyundai e-Kona (31,190 units; + 49%) and the Kia e-Niro (31,150 units; +76%). The Fiat 500e, Peugeot e-208 and Skoda Enyaq follow. The Peugeot e-208, which now represents more than half of Renault Zoé's sales, surely took customers from this declining model. The ID3 and ID4 could end the year with a total volume of 120,000 units, while the Zwickau plant where they are assembled is calibrated to produce 200,000 cars per year.

- Regarding plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), the Ford Kuga was the best-selling model, with 30,265 units (+91%), ahead of the BMW 3 Series (28,947 units; +42%), Volvo XC40 (28,675 units; +112%), Peugeot 3008 (21,944 units; +120%) and Volvo XC60 (19,793 units; +30%). Next come the Mercedes GLC, Audi A3 and Mercedes A-Class.

- Regarding non-rechargeable hybrid vehicles (HEVs) without mild hybrids, the Toyota Yaris was the best-selling model, with 100,618 units (+109%), ahead of the Toyota Corolla (81,277 units; +11 %), Toyota CHR (70,794 units; +11%) and Toyota RAV4 (56,365 units; + 23%). The pioneer carmaker in this technology places its models in the first four places. Renault attempted a development with the hybrid versions of the Clio (18,309 units) and Arkana (20,622 units).

    

 

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Published: 03 December 2021

• Registrations

xEVs accounted for 25% of the European market in 2021

- The ACEA (The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association) has released the sales results of passenger cars in Europe by type of engine. It is to be noted the ACEA classification for hybrids includes full hybrid (HEV) and mild hybrid (MHEV). Our analysis show that mild hybrids account for two-thirds of hybrid car sales. We can therefore deduce that mild hybrids (MHEV) actually represent 14% of European passenger car registrations over the first nine months of 2021, while full hybrid (HEV) represent only 7%, i.e. less than BEV (9%) or than PHEV (9%).

- Compared to the first six months of 2021, the declining sales trend of gasoline and diesel cars continues, with a loss of 1% for each of these two categories. In the first nine months of 2021, sales of purely thermal vehicles totalled 61% of the European market, of which 42% for gasoline and 19% for diesel.

- It should be noted that compared to the first nine months of 2020, the development is impressive, as at that time gasoline car sales represented 52% of the European market and diesel cars 27%. Gasoline sales lost 10% of market share and diesel cars 8%. On the other hand, BEVs only represented 5% and PHEVs only 4% of the European market. Their share has doubled in one year. HEV and MHEV represented 12% of the European market, a share of 9% less than today. xEVs accounted for just 13% of the European market last year, compared to almost the double today (25%).

    

 

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Published: 03 December 2021

• Registrations
• Tesla

Why the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model in Europe in September 2021?

- The Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model in Europe in September 2021 (22,246 sales), well ahead of the Renault Clio (17,034 units), Dacia Sandero (16,641 units) and Volkswagen Golf (16,610 units). But this information is irrelevant if we only look at Model 3 sales in September. Why? The explanation is simple: Tesla's sales in Europe show an atypical evolution similar to a sinusoidal movement, that is to say with a strong diffusion which takes place every three months followed by a very weak diffusion every two months.

- This cyclical sales phenomenon is explained by Tesla's own production policy at its American factory in Fremont, which consists of first producing vehicles intended for export in the first half of each quarter and then vehicles intended for the American market. This strategy named "Wave" aims to limit the stocks of vehicles on the US production plant. Taking into account the logistical time required to transport vehicles to destination markets, we therefore find this cyclical phenomenon in registrations. The Chinese market is little affected by this cycle, because Tesla has been producing the Model 3 there since April 2020.

- This strategy will probably continue in Europe until 2022, when the future German Tesla plant is supposed to be opened, and where the Model 3 and Model Y will be produced. Cyclical sales should therefore continue for a few more months, while the German production is ramping up. So it will not be a surprise to see strong sales declines in October and November, and after that again a strong increase in December 2021.

- Anyway, the increase in sales of Model 3 in Europe is significant because the volume of deliveries is in strong evolution compared to 2020 and 2019. While in 2019, these deliveries had reached 80,000 units and 75,000 in 2020 (volume in slight decrease due to the Covid-19 crisis), they could reach between 130,000 and 135,000 units in 2021, which would represent an increase of 80% compared to 2020 and of 70% compared to 2019.

- This volume of 130,000 to 135,000 Model 3 sold in Europe in 2021 will represent 25% of the global production of this model, estimated at 520,000 units, its two other major markets being the United States and China.

- It is interesting to note that Model 3 sales continue to increase (in Europe and elsewhere) as the Tesla Model Y started to be marketed several months ago. In Europe, the Tesla Model Y is already 14th in September 2021 (11,176 sales) with a volume representing half of the Model 3 sales.

    

 

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