- US auto production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (USA) fell 30.7% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the first quarter of 2019 which had already decreased by 5.3% compared to the first quarter of 2018. The month of April was catastrophic, since the production volume did not exceed 2,000 units, a figure never reached since the Second World War.

- It is true that all assembly plants were shutdown in April in the United States because of the coronavirus crisis, which has also created an explosion in unemployment in the country (the rate is increased from 5% to 15% in one month).

- To avoid sclerosing the entire US economy, the Trump government has encouraged the deconfinement and restart of factories. Most decided to resume production in May, but at a slower than normal rate.

- However, the restart of the factories should accelerate, as demand remains strong, with 710,000 sales in April (despite the factories closed), these sales coming mainly from stocks from assembly factories not only from the United States, but also from Canada and Mexico which also closed their factories in April, and also from Japan and Europe.

- It will therefore be necessary to replenish stocks in order to be able to meet demand for the coming months, even if it is still not very optimal. If demand increases in the second half of 2020, the car factories will expand their activity and the number of unemployed should decrease, which will help the economy to recover. In summary, American production is not expected to drop too sharply in 2020, in the range of 10% to 15%.

- Chinese auto production for passenger cars fell 37.7% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the first quarter of 2019 which had already decreased by 13.3% compared to the first quarter of 2018. However, April returned to April 2019 level, thanks to local demand which restarted at the same time. Car sales in China rebounded in April, with sales volume roughly matching that of April 2019.

- The coronavirus crisis indeed affected China sooner than Europe or the United States, so it was in February that sales and production bottomed out in China, while Europe or the United States States hit rock bottom two months later.

- As a result, Chinese factories restarted in March and this restart intensified in April and the coming months should be at the same level as the same months of 2019.

- All in all, 2020 should end with a 10% drop in sales and auto production in China. It will still be the third drop in three years. Between 2018 and 2020, car sales and production in China will have lost 20% of their volume, while this country, still under-motorized, was promised a decade ago to an uninterrupted growth in car sales and production.

- Note that replenishment of stocks is currently not necessary in China because the production volume was very close to the sales volume between January and April 2020.

- The Chinese automobile market for passenger cars fell 35.5% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the first quarter of 2019, but unlike the European and American markets, the hardest is over, since April ends at a comparable to that of April 2019, when March was down 48.4% and February was down 81.7% at the worst of the coronavirus crisis.

- The Covid-19 crisis started earlier in China and therefore ends earlier than in Europe or the United States, and it is not clear why the result achieved in April in China could not be achieved in June in Europe or the United States.

- Obviously, the recovery has been effective in China since April, even if we remain in the quarter at a level of a third lower than last year which was already less than 10% compared to that of 2018 .

- Over the whole year, the Chinese government expects a drop of -10% which corresponds to a drop of 35.5% in the first quarter of 2020 which would continue from May to December with a market level comparable to that of 2019.

- Who were the manufacturers most impacted on the first quarter of 2020?

- French manufacturers Renault (-78%) and PSA (-74%) are the most affected, followed by the GM (-52%) and FCA (-59%) groups. Next come the Hyundai-Kia (-42%), Volkswagen (-34%), Honda (-34%) groups, but the latter two do better than the market as a whole. Tesla is the only one to progress in this market.

- The Japanese automobile market for passenger cars fell 14.1% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the first quarter of 2019, due to the coronavirus crisis. The Japanese automotive market had already suffered a 1% drop in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the first quarter of 2018.

- The drop recorded in the first quarter of 2020 is much less than that recorded by automobile production in Japan during the same period. In fact, production suffered from sharply falling exports (due to the collapse of world markets), while for the market, imports represent such a small part (5.5%) that it does not impact not the market as a whole.

- For the past thirty years, the share of imports into Japan has fluctuated between 5.5% and 6.5% and therefore today we are at the lowest point. Japan is one of the countries with the lowest percentage of imports.

- However, the decline in the Japanese market reached -30% in April, against -9% in March, -10% in February and -12% in January. The situation has therefore worsened since March and it is difficult today to know whether the Japanese market will plunge in May or stabilize. It should be remembered that Japan was affected later than China, and a little later than Europe or the United States.

- In both cases, the decline in the Japanese market should be around 10% to 15% over the whole year, if the coronavirus crisis does not drag on.