Global auto sales return to 2010 levels

Global auto sales (VP + LCV) in 2020 fell to the same level as a decade earlier, when taking into account sales made in the first quarter. The Covid-19 erased the growth achieved between the lowest point of the decade in 2009 and 2018, the year which represented the highest point of sales volume, since the year 2019 had already recorded a decline in around 5%. The year 2020 should show a much more significant drop, of the order of 25%, and perhaps more if the demand is not there in the second half of this year, because the second quarter is and already lost, since we could observe a decrease of around 30%.


To achieve a decrease of 25% over the whole year, we would have to count on a decrease of 20% in the third quarter and a decrease of 20% in the fourth quarter, which is not impracticable, because the manufacturers will sell off their cars put in stock since the beginning of containment and it is to be expected that the anxiety of traveling by public transport can bring new customers, even if many will prefer the bicycle or the electric scooter, even the car second hand.


Auto production follows the same trend as sales, with a small difference in the first quarter (-27% for production, -25% for sales) as production stopped in mid-March while sales continued until 'at the end of March.


Even though automakers will have to restock after deconfinement, provided they have sold their old stocks, global auto production could fall 25% over the year, returning to 2006 levels.


20-10-4
    
 

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European LCV market fell 24.7% in the first quarter of 2020

The European automobile market in 29 countries for light commercial vehicles fell by 60.9% in March 2020, to 93,373 units. In the quarter, the European market for 29 countries fell 24.7% to 422,378 units. This sharp drop recorded in March 2020 (steeper than that recorded by VPs) is due to the coronavirus crisis which led to the closure of factories and car dealerships in the middle of the month, and of course to the confinement of the population and the '' shutdown of activity of many companies. This decline is the largest since World War II, as even the successive oil shocks and the 2008/2009 financial crisis had no such impact on sales and production of light commercial vehicles in Europe. And when we know that LCVs are bought by businesses, artisans and traders, it is not certain that sales of LCVs will restart quickly due to the economic crisis of an unprecedented scale which should follow the health crisis. .


Over the whole year, the European LCV market could therefore fall by 30% in an optimistic scenario and by 40% in a pessimistic scenario.


The results by manufacturer are not yet known, but by country, we observe that the most affected are Slovenia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and France.


The least affected countries are Bulgaria, Denmark, Norway, Slovakia, Hungary, Finland and Germany, and therefore more of the countries of Northern and Central Europe, where confinement was more flexible.


20-10-5
    
 

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Electric car sales in the first quarter of 2020

The global market for 100% electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars totaled 460,506 units in the first quarter of 2020, representing 4.5% of the global automotive market compared to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2019.


Despite the collapse of the European market as a whole (-26.3% in the first quarter of 2020), sales of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid cars increased considerably over the same period, going from 126,000 to 229,000 registered units, which represents a market share of 7.5% (against 3% a year earlier) As a result, these sales far exceed those of electric and plug-in hybrid cars in China in the first quarter of 2020 which collapsed to 129,000 units, half the volume produced a year earlier. This volume now represents only 4.5% of the Chinese market.


Remarkably, the Tesla Model 3 becomes the best-selling electric car in China in 2020 (it is produced locally), far ahead of its Chinese competitors. Remember that it is already the most sold in Europe and the USA.


Victims of an anti-ecological policy, the USA saw its sales of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid cars fall to 75,000 units in the first quarter of 2020, representing less than 2.5% of the American market. Japan remains very fond of electric and plug-in hybrid cars that did not exceed 10,000 sales in the quarter.


In total, Tesla remains by far the leading manufacturer of electric cars over the period, ahead of the Volkswagen group which has not yet started production of the ID3, and ahead of Renault-Nissan which is clearly different from its pursuers.


20-10-7
    
 

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Renault to expand its electric strategy

Renault will amplify its strategy in the electrical sector. Today, its 100% electric range comes down to the Zoé, the Kangoo ZE and the Master ZE. The Twingo ZE is expected to be available only next fall. According to the manufacturer, the electrical sector requires a lot of investment, which is why it will rely on Nissan and Mitsubishi to design these future models, from the common CMF-EV platform. This platform will be dedicated to future 100% electric models from the three brands.


It will be inaugurated by an SUV (BCB code) unveiled next fall and marketed in 2021 under the Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi brands. Another SUV (HCC code) will follow in 2022 based on this platform and marketed under the Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi brands. Finally, in 2023, a third SUV will follow (code unknown) based on this platform and marketed under the Alpine, Nissan and Mitsubishi brands. These models will be manufactured in the Douai factory, which will have stopped manufacturing the Scénic, Espace and Talisman and will become the electric hub for Renault-Nissan in Europe. However, the manufacturer recognizes that not all models can switch to electric. This is why to offset the likely end of diesel, by 2023-2024, when the Euro 7 standard comes into force, Renault will offer hybrid powertrains on 10 different models. Renault will rely on Mitsubishi's rechargeable hybrid system, in particular for the future Kadjar planned for 2022. Like the Volkswagen group, two Renault ranges will coexist in Europe in the future: a classic thermal and hybrid range (Clio, Megane, Captur, Kadjar) and a second 100% electric, comprising specific vehicles in terms of style and architecture (SUV-B, SUV-C, SUV-D).


20-10-6
    
 

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World production by manufacturers in the first quarter of 2020

The coronavirus crisis reduced the production volume of the vast majority of car manufacturers in the first quarter of 2020 but did not upset the ranking of the top twenty, each having suffered a comparable impact, with a few exceptions. If we exclude heavy goods vehicles, the Toyota group remains the world's leading manufacturer ahead of Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan, as in the first quarter of 2019.


Behind these three leaders, a notable change, the Hyundai-Kia group passes in front of the GM group which is collapsing in China.


Suddenly, the Ford group is behind the GM group globally, which had not happened in ages. GM thus fell to fifth place in the world, while this manufacturer remained the world's leading manufacturer between 1927 and 2004.


Behind, Honda retains its seventh place, ahead of FCA which has not suffered too much (it is not present in China) and PSA which has suffered a lot, even if it is very little present in China. The European market (main PSA market) suffered much more from the coronavirus crisis than the American market (main FCA market). Suzuki maintains its positions in tenth place, ahead of BMW and Daimler. Mazda supplants Geely but their volumes are very close. Subaru, which is one of the rare manufacturers to progress in 2020, passes Tata which suffers at the same time from the decline of the European market and that of the Indian market, while Subaru is not very present neither on the one nor on the other. Note that Tesla increases its production volume in 2020 compared to 2019, going from 82,000 units in the first quarter of 2019 to 89,000 in the first quarter of 2020.


20-10-8
    
 

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