European market in 2030: What realistic scenarios?
- 詳細
European market in 2030: What realistic scenarios?
- 2030 is the year of all objectives for light vehicle manufacturers and for the authorities, through CO2 objectives. Almost all car manufacturers have announced their plans to meet the CO2 targets set by the European Commission. These objectives will also be updated by the end of the first half of 2022. In anticipation of the new objectives, some manufacturers have already announced their ambitions to switch to the production of 100% electric vehicles in 2030, such as Renault or Ford, while others remain for the moment on BEV + PHEV mix objectives, like the brands of the VW group. But are these objectives realistic and will the European market be ready by 2030 to respond favorably to this future new offer of electric vehicles?
- To answer these questions, Inovev has constructed several scenarios to determine the mix of new vehicles sold in Europe in 2030. These scenarios take into account the forces driving the electrification of the offer but also the obstacles to be lifted to enable the market to respond favorably to this future supply of vehicles. These strengths and brakes are well known today and are detailed in the following pages.
- In parallel with these scenarios, Inovev has also calculated two scenarios relating to the mix of vehicles necessary to meet the CO2 objectives of 2030. These are purely supply-related calculations and therefore do not take demand into account. of the market. This calculation makes it possible to establish the bases of comparison with the three other Inovev scenarios.
Contact us: info@inovev.com
Automotive market forecasts in Europe (PC+LCV)
- 詳細
Automotive market forecasts in Europe (PC+LCV)
Inovev forecasts three possible scenarios regarding the development of the European automotive market (PC+LCV) up to 2030. The high scenario (17.2 million units) takes into account strong customer acceptance for the purchase of electric vehicles linked to a drastic drop in the price of these vehicles and a major development of infrastructure. The low scenario (13.2 million units) takes into account lower customer acceptance for the purchase of electric vehicles whose high prices would be considered too high in relation to the services provided. The reference scenario (14.5 million units) is the median scenario between the two trends mentioned above. In this context, the demand for BEV-PHEV should not exceed 5 million units in 2030 according to Inovev, i.e. 35% of the European automotive market.
Contact us: info@inovev.com
China automotive market forecast (PC+LCV)
- 詳細
China automotive market forecast (PC+LCV)
Inovev forecasts a scenario of continuous increase in car registrations in China from 2021 to 2030. From a volume of 22.2 million units recorded in 2020 and 23.5 million in 2021, the Chinese market should gradually reach 28 million units in 2030, an average growth of 0.5 million per year for nine years. Total BEV+PHEV sales should grow even more strongly to reach a volume of 12.5 million units compared to 1.3 million in 2020 and 3.3 million in 2021. The sales volume of BEV+PHEV should represent 45% of the Chinese car market in 2030.
Contact us: info@inovev.com
European and Chinese automotive market comparison (PC+LCV)
- 詳細
European and Chinese automotive market comparison (PC+LCV)
The Chinese car market took over the European car market in 2012. Since then, the volume gap between the two markets has continued to grow. In 2021, nearly 10 million registrations separate the two markets, and this gap should continue to grow over the next few years.
Contact us: info@inovev.com
続きを読む... European and Chinese automotive market comparison (PC+LCV)
PC+LCV production in Europe by engine
- 詳細
PC+LCV production in Europe by engine
- European production reached 12.45 million PC+LCVs in 2021 compared to 12.97 million units in 2020, representing a 4% decrease year-on-year. Germany suffered particularly (-10%) but remains the leading producer country in Europe ahead of Spain and France. Poland (-10%), Slovenia (-16%) and Great Britain (-6%) also suffered, suffering from the shutdown of the Honda factory (Swindon) and Brexit, which increased prices. of its vehicles. By engine, internal combustion vehicles represented 10.60 million units produced in Europe in 2021 (85% of the total). BEVs accounted for 802,926 units (6.5%), PHEVs 766,849 units (6%) and HEVs 288,785 units (2.5%). These vehicles saw their production increase by 67% compared to 2020, while thermal vehicles saw their production fall by 10%. Inovev projects a steady increase in production of BEV+PHEV vehicles until at least 2030, with the volume expected to be 5 million units by then (Inovev's baseline scenario). The BEV+PHEV market should also represent 5 million units in Europe. It should be noted that in the reference scenario of Inovev, it is estimated that the number of exports of this type of vehicles to the outside should be comparable to that of imported vehicles of this type.
- In 2021, European exports of BEV+PHEV represented around 100,000 units (including 65,000 in the USA, 25,000 in Korea, 10,000 in Japan) while Europe imported around 400,000 units (including 200,000 from USA, 100,000 from China, 100,000 from Korea) but imports are expected to decline sharply with the start-up of the Tesla factory in Berlin, which will replace the American factory.
- Germany will remain the leading European producer of BEV +PHEV over the next few years. In Inovev's reference scenario, France will not produce 2 million electrified vehicles in 2030 (government target), but rather half.
Contact us: info@inovev.com