The Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is kept at 84% by local carmakers
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The Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is kept at 84% by local carmakers
- In 2019, the Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is more than 90% kept by local Chinese carmakers. In this analysis, Inovev included the Tesla, which is now a major player in the Chinese market, while sales statistics released by the Chinese government only take into account locally produced vehicles.
- The BEV market is still very fragmented in 2019 with no less than 58 brands, selling from ten units per year to hundreds of thousands for the most important. The market is made up of 43 local brands and 15 non-Chinese brands (5 European, 5 Japanese, 3 American and 2 Korean). However, the top 20 brands represent 90% of BEV's sales, with more than 10,000 units sold per year.
- A Top 20 almost entirely Chinese, with the exception of Tesla which, with nearly 43,000 units sold in 2019 (Inovev estimates from various sources) is the only non-Chinese carmaker to integrate the top 20 BEV brand in China.
- This classification is dominated by the carmaker BYD which with nearly 150,000 units sold, holds 17% of the market, ahead of BAIC (97,000 units for 11% of the market) and Baojun (60,000 units for 7% of the market). VW, the leading carmaker in China, all engines combined, sold less than 10,000 BEV (9,516 units to be precise). Nissan, BEV’s leading Japanese brand in China, and despite the success of its Leaf in the US and Europe, had not the same success with its Sylphy model, with only 8,109 units sold.
- In the future, with the new development plan of the NEV (New Energy Vehicles), the face of the market should however evolve. Indeed, the short-term end of subsidies, the quotas of electric vehicles imposed on any brand operating on the Chinese market, and the establishment of local standards which are set to become global benchmarks (both on vehicles and batteries), should ultimately drastically decrease the number of players, push for a grouping of Chinese carmakers (to create one or several national “champions”) but also rebalance the presence of non-Chinese brands.
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続きを読む... The Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is kept at 84% by local carmakers
Toyota reorganises the production of its models in Europe
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Toyota reorganises the production of its models in Europe
- In 2019, just under 800,000 passenger cars and light utility vehicles (PC+LUV) have been produced in Europe under the Toyota brand (including Turkey). Toyota's first production site in Europe is located in Adapazari, Turkey, which has produced around 250,000 units from its plant, mainly CHR (93% of production) and at a smaller scale, Corolla. France is the second Toyota production site in Europe with the production of the Toyota Yaris with nearly 224,000 units in Onnaing, to which has to be added the PROACE LUV produced by PSA in Valenciennes. Great Britain produces around 140,000 units (in 2019) of the Toyota Corolla (in Burnaston). Finally, the Kolin plant (Czech Rep.) produced around 100,000 units of the Aygo, a factory where the Peugeot 108 and Citroën C1 are also produced. More anecdotally, it should be noted that the Toyota Supra is produced in the Magna Steyr factory in Graz (Austria), while the Portuguese factory in Ovar produces the Dyna LUV and some units of the Land Cruiser for export.
- Toyota has announced the production of a segment B SUV at the Onnaing site (a suburb of Valenciennes - France). This SUV, based on the new TNGA platform, which also equips the 4th generation of the Toyota Yaris, could be unveiled at the next Paris Motor Show, for a SOP in late 2020-early 2021.
The arrival of this model in the he French plant will cause a partial reorganisation of Toyota's production in Europe.
The arrival of this model in the he French plant will cause a partial reorganisation of Toyota's production in Europe.
- Indeed, with the production of this new SUV, part of the production of the Yaris will be transferred to Kolin. The objective announced by Toyota for the Onnaing site is to reach 300,000 production units with these two models. For the Kolin site, the production of part of the Toyota Yaris alongside the Toyota Aygo will be followed by the gradual end of the Peugeot 108 and Citroën C1 until the end of 2021 (according to the Inovev scenario). Toyota Aygo which could be replaced after 2021 by a new BEV of A segment.
- In the long term, Inovev forecasts that the Toyota B segment SUV could reach 175,000 units per year (in a high scenario), while the Yaris could see its production return to a level of 200,000 units also (high scenario), including 100,000 in Onnaing and 100,000 units in the Czech Republic. Consequently, the Onnaing plant could reach a production level of 275,000 units in 2025, while the Kolin plant would reach a production of 150,000 units in the same period (including 100,000 for the Yaris and 50,000 for the future electric Aygo).
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続きを読む... Toyota reorganises the production of its models in Europe
The US passenger and light commercial vehicle market should be stable in 2020 after a slight drop of 2% in 2019
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The US passenger and light commercial vehicle market should be stable in 2020 after a slight drop of 2% in 2019
- In 2019, the US market for passenger cars and light utility vehicles (PC + LUV) is down 2% compared to 2018, for a volume of 17 million units. The Inovev classification of private vehicles (PC) takes into account sedans, MPVs and SUVs while light utility vehicles (LUV) are mainly light trucks and pick-ups that have a hybrid vocation, both utility and passenger transportation. This differentiation is important in understanding the evolution of the market because, while the passenger car market is down 4% (to 13.4 million units), the pick-up market is up 6% (to 3.1 million units).
- In 2019, the economic expansion phase which continued, a very low unemployment rate, rising average incomes, as well as access to very low and numerous credits, were factors of growth of consumption and helped maintain a relatively stable automotive market at a high level for almost 5 years now.
- However, the trade tensions initiated with neighbouring countries (Canada and Mexico), China and very soon Europe and the uncertainty linked to these tensions will have an impact on American growth. As a result, in 2020, Inovev forecasts that the American market should remain stable at +/- 1% change.
- In the medium term, current US policy does not go in the direction of a paradigm shift. The car remains a strong and traditional element of American culture. However, the nature of the US economy and its auto market has historically been cyclical (with strong upward or downward variations). The period of stability in the automotive market could therefore not last and could experience some strong movements in the next 10 years.
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The passenger car market in China could fall by 5% in 2020 but should return to strong levels in the medium term
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The passenger car market in China could fall by 5% in 2020 but should return to strong levels in the medium term
- In 2019, the market for passenger cars (PC) produced and sold in China decreased by -9.6% compared to 2018, for a volume of 21.4 million units. The light utility vehicle (LUV) market experienced a slight decrease of -1.1% for a volume of 4.3 million units. The Chinese PC market therefore fell even more sharply in 2019 than in 2018, when the market had fallen by 4% compared to 2017.
- The downturn in the global economy with an effect on the Chinese economy and trade tensions with the United States are the main reasons cited to explain this decline. However, we should not put aside the fact that demand (which remains very strong for new vehicles) is also controlled by the government,which aim to regulate vehicle registrations in mega-cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Wuhan…) in order to control its effects (traffic congestion, environment, public health).
- At a short term, for the year 2020, Inovev forecasts that the market will register a less marked fall in the market, with an order of magnitude of -5%. Trade tensions with the United States should ease and, despite an expected slowdown, the country's economic growth should remain strong, around 5.7% (source OECD), thanks to the growth of investments and a policy to support household consumption. This scenario was built before the emergence of the Coronavirus, which duration and effects still uncertain, cannot allow us to measure its impact on the automotive industry.
- In the medium term, the passenger car market in China should return to known levels during the 2015 - 2017 period. Indeed, with a motorisation rate of around 120 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants (six times less than in Europe), the market potential remains strong. Without however reaching European, American or Japanese rates, the motorization rate in China could be at a level of between 300 and 350 vehicles per inhabitant in 2030, taking into account the growth scenarios of the Chinese economy, which should become the world's largest economy to date (source IMF). In addition, investments in road infrastructure as well as the establishment of a financialisation of car purchases (by the use of credits instead of cash payments) go in the direction of a support to the automobile market.
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The European passenger and light utility vehicle market could fall by 3 to 4% in 2020
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The European passenger and light utility vehicle market could fall by 3 to 4% in 2020
- The European market (European Union + UK, Switzerland and Norway) of passenger cars and light utility vehicles (PC + LUV) experienced relative stability in 2019 compared to 2018 (+ 1.4%) at almost 18 million units. The PC market remained stable (+ 1% / 15.8 million units) while the LUV market experienced a growth (+ 3% / 2.19 million units).
- This stability of the European market in 2019 was not necessarily acquired at the end of the year, as in the first 3 quarters of the year, registrations of PC & LUV were down 2%. It was in fact the 4th quarter with a growth of almost 10%, which helped to contain the market decline. But this growth is just an epiphenomenon. The inclusion of the WLTP cycle in the calculation of the CO2 targets from March 2020 has indeed resulted in significant PC registrations at the end of 2019 (+ 21% in December 2019 compared to December 2018), except for UK, which experienced weak growth in December (+ 3%). Inovev estimates that anticipated PC registrations will be in the order of 500,000 units in 2019.
- It is precisely this anticipated volume that could be lacking in 2020, in an expected context of slowing consumption (source OECD). Added to this, the uncertain effects of UK confirmed departure from the European Union on one hand, and the trade tensions between the European Union and the United States which are expected to dawn on the other.
- For 2020, Inovev therefore forecasts a fall in the PC & LUV market of around 3% in a median scenario and by 4% in a low scenario. The PC market could drop by 5% while the LUV market would continue to grow by 2 to 3%.
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続きを読む... The European passenger and light utility vehicle market could fall by 3 to 4% in 2020