Production and market volumes of Kazakhstan in 2014
 
Automobile production in Kazakhstan should end the year 2014 at about 40 000 vehicles (against 37 469 vehicles in 2013). The levels are quite far from the 60 000 units targeted by the local government. One of the main reasons for the slow growth in automotive production is the difficulty of exporting vehicles to target markets around Kazakhstan, namely Russia and Belarus. This difficulty is not only due to the decline of the Russian market but also to import taxes imposed by Russia on vehicles produced in Kazakhstan. This tax established only recently being the result of the entry of Russia into the World Trade Organization. This organisation considered that the absence of fees for Kazakh producers was a disloyal advantage that other countries couldn't benefit from.

Thus, over the first eight months of 2014, Kazakhstan produced 23 228 vehicles against 21 918 units in the first eight months of 2013. Let us recall that the main assembler of Kazakhstan (Asia Auto) produces licensed cars (Lada, Skoda, Chevrolet, Kia) from segments B and C.

This situation does not prevent the Kazakh government from being optimistic for years to come by announcing a target of 190 000 vehicles produced per year in 2019.

The domestic market has increased by 7.5% over the first 8 months of 2014, representing a volume of 99 407 units (against 92 472 in the first eight months of 2013). We should end the year at about 160 000 units (against 153 665 in 2013). Over this period, Kazakhstan imported 57 000 vehicles from Russia (57% of registrations) and 20 000 from other countries (20% of registrations). Lada is the best selling brand (30% market share), followed by Kia (12%), Hyundai (9%), Chevrolet (8%), Toyota (7%), Daewoo (6%), Renault (5 %), Nissan (4%) and Skoda (3%).
 

14-31-2  


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Hyundai-Kia declined in Korea but grew in emerging markets
 

With the gradual opening of the Korean market (particularly following custom agreements between Europe and South Korea), the Hyundai-Kia group suffers more and more from the pressure of its foreign competitors. Despite a Korean PC + LCV market increase (+7% over the nine months of 2014), the share of the Hyundai-Kia group market declined in 2014, to less than 70% (against nearly 77 % in 2009).


The last three months are rather interesting: 69.7% market share in July, 68.4% in August and 67.3% in September. The Hyundai-Kia group has been losing 1 point of market share every month since the summer.


However, the first Korean manufacturer (fifth worldwide manufacturer) offset the decline in its domestic market by an increase in its market share in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Thus, Hyundai-Kia strengthens its third place in China (9% market share) with sales up by 8.2% (9 months 2014 / 9 months 2013). In India, the Group maintained its second place (16% market share) with sales up by 8% over the nine months of 2014. In Russia, despite declining sales (-4.4% in 9 months 2014), the group's market share is growing (15% market share) since the Russian market has as a whole declined much more (-13%). In Brazil, Hyundai-Kia is still a small manufacturer, but its market share grows month after month (sales up 13% over the first nine months of 2014). Its HB20 model was the fourth best-selling model in September (nearly 10 000 units).


On the other hand, the market share of the Korean group stagnated in mature markets, such as the United States (8% market share) despite sales increase of 8% over the nine months in 2014 and in Europe (6% market share) despite sales up 1.5%.


14-30-10  


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Lexus is expected to increase its market share with its new SUV: the NX
 
During the first half of the year Lexus introduced its new D-segment SUV named NX. This model which is as long as a BMW X3 uses the platform of the Toyota RAV4 and is positioned below the RX (segment E) in the carmakers' range. Marketed since September in Europe, the Lexus NX started well and should soon exceed the sales volume of its predecessor.

Globally, the new NX should gradually supplant the RX in terms of sales, and considering that the RX was manufactured at 90 000 copies in Japan and 90 000 in North America, it is estimated that the new model that is more compact and cheaper could reach a production rate of 200 000 units per year. In 2016, the NX model should represent nearly 25% of Lexus total production. In comparison with its competitors,  the Q5 represents 14% of Audi's production, the X3 represents 9% of BMW's production and the GLK accounts for 8% of Mercedes’ production .

This model is a key element for the expansion of the Lexus brand worldwide. In 2013, Lexus sold 520 000 vehicles worldwide, and the NX could help the brand to sell 700 000 vehicles by 2015 and 800 000 in 2016, and is one step closer to the three premium German brands (Audi, BMW, Mercedes). These manufactures have spread out their US range on more compact segments, especially in the SUV category . By adopting the same strategy, The NX is therefore an important part of the global development of Lexus.

14-30-9  


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Ford USA Product Plan (2014-2017)
 

Ford, the 6th largest worldwide automotive group, unveiled its product plan for the American market. In 2014, the Ford group is expected to produce nearly 3 million vehicles (PC + LCV) in North America (USA, Canada, Mexico). For coming years, Ford has decided to renew key models of the American market (via the Ford and Lincoln makes). Ford is launching in 2014 the replacement of two legendary models: the F-Series pickup (700 000 units per year) and the Mustang sports car (100 000 units).


In 2015, Ford will launch the next generation of the Edge SUV (200 000 units) and its Lincoln version named MKX (20 000 units). In 2016, Ford will launch the next generation of its large Lincoln, the MKS (20 000 units), currently based on the Ford Taurus. That same year, the American manufacturer will renew the large Ford Expedition SUV (70 000 units) and the Lincoln version named the Navigator (10 000 units), as well as the Super Duty F (200 000 units).


In 2017, Ford is expected to replace two key models of its US range : the Fiesta (150 000 units) and Focus (300 000 units). That same year, the manufacturer should replace two other major models of the SUV category: the Escape (375 000 units) and the Explorer (230 000 units). At the end of 2017, the manufacturers' range will be completely renewed in North America, if we include the restyling of the Ford Fusion (known as the Mondeo in Europe) introduced in 2012 and thus still considered as a recent model. It is not certain that the Ford Taurus will be replaced, given the low sales of this model.


14-30-8  


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Current leaders of China's automobile production
 

In 2014, China's automobile production will grow by over 10% and will remain the world's largest producer. Nine leading groups stand out and account for 70% of China's automobile production representing 15.5 million units in 2014.


However, these nine manufacturers can be classified into three distinct groups: leaders (VW and GM), one follower (Hyundai-Kia) and finally a squad composed of Changan (only Chinese manufacturer in the top 9), Toyota, Renault-Nissan, Honda, Ford and PSA.


By themselves, VW (with nearly 30 models produced) and GM (with nearly 20 models, including GM Wuling) will exceed 7.5 million cars produced in China in 2014, i.e. one-third of the Chinese production of PC.


The Hyundai-Kia group benefits from its proactive policy of opening plants and increasing its local production capacity (nearly 2 million cars produced in 2014) probably at the expense of Japanese manufacturers.


The next six manufacturers represent between 0.8 and 1.2 million cars manufactured this year.


However, the analysis of market shares shows that VW is increasing while most other manufacturers maintain their market share. This means that production volumes are increasing following the pattern of the local market without really standing out or taking market share from their competitors.


14-30-6  


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