What about a Russian embargo on EU car imports?

In the Ukrainian conflict and following the sanctions of the United States and Europe against the Russian government, the Russian government responded by establishing an embargo on food imports from Europe, the United States, Australia and Norway. It also threatened to ban flights over its territory. No announcement on the auto industry has been made so far, but Europe is the largest exporter of vehicles towards Russia (1 of 2 vehicles imported to Russia comes from Europe), the possibility of an embargo on imports is not unthinkable and could have a negative impact on manufacturers.

In H1 2014, Russia imported 167 000 vehicles from Europe, 30% less than the same period last year. The share of European imports into the Russian market has decreased from 26% to 19% of the total market.

Countries that could be the most affected by a possible embargo are Great Britain, which exported 56 000 units to Russia in the the first half of 2014, followed by Germany 46 000 units and Spain with 22 000 units exported. France would be affected to a lesser extent because the majority of Renault-Nissan and PSA vehicles sold in Russia are produced locally.

Brands that are likely to be the most affected are Nissan (34 000 vehicles exported to Russia in H1 2014), followed by Hyundai (21 000 units). In third position Toyota (19 000 units) , followed by Mercedes (18 000 units) and VW (17 000 units).
 

14-24-7  


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GM US product plan unveiled (2015-2018)

The GM group will probably produce close to 9,8 million vehicles (PC+UV) worldwide in 2014,  which will place the US carmaker as the third global player. In coming years, GM has decided to revamp key models of US marketed (Buick, Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac).


The renewal plan has already began but should reach a peak in 2015. Thanks to GM’s new product plan many models will be renewed. 


It must be noted that although traditionally GM waits a long time between vehicle generations. But this time it has decided to shorten the wait, hencemodels that weren’t due for a facelift before 2 years or more will be updated next year. On the other hand it seems that 2017 and 2018 may experience a slow in terms of vehicle replacement although GM has still time to plan ahead.


In 2013, GM’s best selling model in US, the Chevrolet Cruze, was sold at 688 000 units followed by another Chevrolet, the Silverado with 592 000 units and last but not least the Buick Excelle with 294 000 units.


GM like other manufacturers is increasingly making their models more and more global. A few years back GM had too many models and too many model variations in the world to be able to simultaneously update its vehicles.

 

14-24-8  


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The BMW product plan unveiled (2015-2017)

For the past two years, BMW has launched in major developments, creating its "i" range dedicated to electric vehicles and now offering front wheel drive vehicles (while the models are traditionally rear wheel drives), a 3-cylinder engine (while its engines are traditionally 4 and 6 cylinder) and a compact MPV (while it had never marketed one before).

In its "i" range , BMW is expected to launch two new models in 2017: the i5 ( a Crossover?) and the i9 (an SUV?).

Regarding the gasoline engine range:
The 2 Series convertible (segment C) and the 2 Series Gran Tourer (7-seat MPV based on the Active Tourer) are expected to be launched in 2015.
The launch of the new generation  7 Series (segment F) has been postponed  and is expected to be on sale in the autumn of 2015.
In that same year the Series 3 a segment D sedan, is expected to be restyled.
By 2016 BMW will market the X1 ( segment C, SUV), with the new front wheel drive architecture and the new 5 Series sedan (segment E).

2017 will see the arrival of the new X2 (segment C, SUV) and X7 (segment F, SUV), while the 5 Series GT ( segment E crossover) will be renewed despite the low volumes of the current model (30 000 units per year).

For its part, the Mini brand will launch in 2015 the new Clubman estate, followed in 2016 by the Mini Cabrio and Countryman. The Mini coupe, the roadster and the Paceman may not be renewed.
 

14-24-5  


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Production PC + LCV in Russia in the first half of 2014

In the first half of 2014, production (PC + LCV) in Russia reached 1 000 000 units against 1 100 000 units in 2013, a 10% decrease in the total production volume over the period.


The groups that produce the most vehicles in Russia are: Renault-Nissan (under French control), which produced nearly 369 000 vehicles in the 1st half of 2014 , followed by Hyundai-Kia (179 000 units, under Korean control ), Volkswagen (116 000 units under German control ) and GM (95 000 units under American control ). Russia’s first independent manufacturer to enter the ranking is UAZ (in 11th placewith 9 000 units in the first half of 2014).


By brand, in H1 2014,Lada is the leading brand in Russia, with 203 000 manufactured units, followed by Kia (113 000 units), Renault (106 000 units), Chevrolet and Hyundai with each 81 000 and 67 000 units respectively.


Since the beginning of 2014, the market has decreased sharply, moreover in the first 7 months it decreased by 10% (with -23% in July) and we expect that until the end of the year and beyond  it will further decline.


The most produced models are the LadaGranta (Segment C, 76 000 units), Hyundai Solaris (segment C, 67 000 units) and the Kia Rio (segment B, 56 000 units). The most represented segment in Russia is segment C (467 000 vehicles in the first half of 2014).

 

14-24-6  


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The European LCV market increased by 10.2% in the first half of 2014

The European LCV market 29 countries recorded an increase of 10.2% of sales in the first half of 2014, compared to the first half of 2013, to 791 000 units (against 718 000 last year).


This significant increase (PC market growth in Europe did not exceed 6.4% over the same period) offset somewhat the decline in the European LCV market between 2007 and 2013 (-38% in six years). At the end of the year, the market volume should reach 1.58 million units, still below the level of 2011 which was already very low.


We are far from the booming years between 2000-2008 which often exceeded two million annual sales of LCVs in Europe, 2007 even  recorded a peak of 2.3 million units, a level which will be difficult to reach again in the future.


As for PC in the first half of 2014, Eastern Europe was more dynamic with an LCV sales increase of 14.1% while Western Europe increased by 9.9%.


If we sum up PCs and LCVs we can observe that the growth in the 29 European countries is on average of 6.8% (reaching 7 638 295 units) which bodes well for a volume close to 14 million units throughout the year. Let us recall that Inovev estimated the the Chinese market at 22 million units, the U.S. market at 16.3 million units and the Japanese market at 5.8 million units over the same period. 

 

14-24-4  


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