Production forecast for Italy in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for Italy in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Italian car production declined significantly in the 2000s, mainly due to relocations towards Poland (Fiat Panda, Fiat 500, Lancia Ypsilon) towards Serbia (Fiat 500 L) and towards Turkey (Fiat Fiorino, Doblo).

- In addition, the decline in Fiat C segment sales (Stilo, Bravo) and Lancia C-D-E segments (Delta, Lybra, Thesis), and even Alfa Romeo generally accentuated the decline of Italian production.

- Finally, the sharp decline of the Italian market after the financial crisis, has not helped the development of the Italian automotive industry.

- Hence, the Italian car production reached its lowest point in 2013 (639 000 units), two times lower than in 2007. 2014 and 2015 will be better, because the domestic market is restarting, just like the European market (after five years of decline). In addition, since the purchase of Chrysler, the Fiat Group may have a policy for global production, which will enable it to produce in Italy vehicles for the global market : the new Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500 X produced in Melfi, the new Alfa Romeo planned for 2015 - 2016, Maserati scaling from levels close to those of Ferrari to levels closer to those of Jaguar. The Italian production should again get closer to 850 000 units in 2015. Inovev expects production in Italy to increase by 8% between 2014 and 2015.

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Production forecast for France in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for France in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The French automobile production has been declining significantly since the early 2000s, mainly because of the many relocations to Eastern Europe, Turkey and Spain.

- Indeed,  the Renault Clio, Renault Twingo, Peugeot 207, Peugeot 208, Citroen C3 Picasso, (all high-volume models) have left France. The arrival of Dacia models in 2005 has offset the decline in Renault sales in France and continental Europe, but these cars are all produced abroad : Romania, Morocco, Russia, etc ... Finally, the Czech car industry benefited the most from the arrival of small PSA vehicles built with Toyota. Alongside increasing vehicle transfers aren't going to stop  soon. In 2016, the entire production of the Citroën C3 and Peugeot 208 will leave France to go towards Eastern Europe .

- Meanwhile, SUVs marketed by French manufacturers were introduced late compared to the demand, while the MPV category (like the Renault Scénic produced in France) has already began its decline. French production will therefore reach 2 million units in 2014.

- Nevertheless, with the launch of new models, the restarting the European market (and the French market), the arrival of the Peugeot 2008 in the Mulhouse plant (mini-SUV), the arrival of the Renault Trafic in the Sandouville plant (LUV) and the commitments taken by Renault and PSA to produce more vehicles in France, French production is expected to grow in 2015.

- Inovev foresees a growth in production in France of 5.7% in 2015 compared to 2014.

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Production forecast for Spain in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for Spain in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- In 2012 and 2013, the Spanish automotive industry experienced its lowest levels in a decade. Spain has both suffered from the drop in its domestic market but also from the drop in external markets on which it depends. Exports (mainly French brands) having declined severely, Spanish production remained at a very low level even falling behind that of France in 2012.


- 2014 and 2015 should be much better, firstly, thanks to a domestic market that has started to reboot (thanks to the introduction of new scrappage schemes : Pive-Plan), secondly, exports have also taken off again (thanks to the reboot of external European markets), and finally, the Spanish plants will benefit from the addition of new models coming in from outside the country, like the Opel Mokka (from Korea), Ford Mondeo (from Belgium), the Ford Galaxy, the Ford S-Max (from Belgium) and the Ford Transit Connect (from Turkey). The Renault Captur (launched at Valladolid in 2013) is becoming increasingly popular which benefits the Spanish production plant. Next arrivals scheduled: the Citroën C3 Picasso and a Renault SUV segment C. Finally, the Peugeot 301 and Citroën C-Elysée substantially developed Spanish exports to North Africa.


- Thus, Inovev expects an increase in Spanish production of 7% between 2014 and 2015.


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Production forecast for Germany in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for Germany in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The German automobile production has reached its best levels since 2007 and apart from a low reached in 2009 like in most European countries, Germany reaches every year around 6 million vehicles produced.

- These figures can be explained mainly by the growth of premium brands such as Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Porsche, that have increased both in Europe and in the world (increasing exports from Germany). They can also be explained by the growth of the Volkswagen make that has developed in Europe and worldwide. Finally, the return of Ford and Opel models to Germany (Fiesta, Focus, Zafira and soon C-Max) has helped to maintain the level of German production.

- It may also be added that the decision German carmakers took to not heavily relocate German production outside of the country worked in its favour

- However, Inovev does not expect significant growth of German production in 2015, as Mercedes has recently started to produced its C-Class vehicles in the USA, Audi is going to produce the Q5 in Mexico and BMW will soon produce some of its models in Mexico as well. Another important element is the gradual transfer of Chinese exports to local production, at the request of the Chinese government (exports that represented almost 400 000 units in 2013).

- German production is expected to stabilize in 2015 and will grow no more than 1% between 2014 and 2015.

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The Chengdu Motor Show saw a surge in SUVs

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The Chengdu Motor Show saw a surge in SUVs

- The Chengdu motor show (Sichuan) is currently being held until the 9th of September. An opportunity to review the new products in a region where the auto industry is booming. Let us recall that the Sichuan + Chongqing region will produce more than 4 million vehicles in 2015 (PC + UV) thanks to 15 local plants.


- The main novelties of the show came from Chinese manufacturers, especially from one local Chinese manufacturer : Yema. This manufacturer that is part of the Sichuan Auto Industry Group Co., Ltd., produces passenger cars and buses in a plant based in Chengdu (with a production capacity of 120 000 units). Yema mainly presented SUVs from segments B, C and D.


- Cowin Auto, a new brand created by Chery, was also present, with vehicles in segments B and C. The Haval brand, from Great Wall, has officially launched its segment B SUV, the H1.


- The SUV body type was therefore the most represented body among Chinese manufacturers that wish to invest in a growing market that is poised to exceed 20% of registrations this year.


- Non-Chinese manufacturers also used the show to introduce new products. Thus, VW unveiled its new C-segment sedan, the Lamando, based on the MQB platform. Honda and Buick introduced their SUVs , the V-XR (segment B, Honda) and Envision (segment C, Buick).

14-25-10  


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