32% overcapacity in Europe in 2013 (against 31% in 2012)

The utilization rate of car plants in Europe (Russia and Turkey included) continued to decline in 2013, but less strongly than in 2012. This rate fell to 68% instead of 69% in 2012 and had reached 75% in 2011, which is the lowest in the decade after that of 2009, which did not exceed 62%. Overcapacity in Europe therefore reached 32% in 2013 against 31% in 2012 and 25% in 2011. The best result of the decade was reached in 2007 with only 15% overcapacity.


It is the further decline in automobile production in Europe in 2013 (-5%), which worsened the situation last year, despite several plant closures in recent years, Ford (Southampton), PSA (Aulnay), Mitsubishi (Born), Opel (Antwerp), SAAB (Trollhättan), Fiat (Termini), which offset the decline. In 2014, the closure of the plants of Bochum and Genk and the expected recovery in the European market should reduce overcapacity in Europe by 1% to 2%.


Carmakers are not all in the same boat. While general manufacturers GM, PSA, Renault-Nissan, Honda and Fiat-Chrysler reduced their production rates last year, premium manufacturers BMW, Tata Motors (Jaguar -Land Rover) and Daimler increased theirs. These three manufacturers are also those with the best utilization rate of their plants in Europe (over 80%), ahead of the Volkswagen group, Hyundai-Kia and Geely (Volvo) that recorded utilization rates between 75% and 80%.


14-10-9  

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Tesla expects to sell 500 000 electric cars a year by 2020

Tesla unveiled a plan for a plant that will produce lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. The plant is expected to be completed by 2017 and will equip by 2020 nearly 500 000 of the brands vehicles per year. Tesla plans to manufacture 35 000 vehicles in 2014 (against 25 000 in 2013) and 70 000 in 2015, 150 000 in 2016, 250 000 in 2017, 350 000 in 2018, 450 000 in 2019 and 500 000 in 2020.

However, no announcement was made on Tesla's ability to produce these 500 000 vehicles by 2020 and on which markets the vehicles will be sold. If it indeed wants to mass produce its electric models several questions can be raised.

Does Tesla have the capacity to produce 500 000 vehicles? Today 30 000 vehicles rolled out of the Fremont plant (California) and when the plant used to belong to GM / Toyota it could produce up to 400 000 gas vehicles. Naturally, this does not mean that Tesla is able to produce as many electric vehicles. Another solution that would be available would be to build or buy a new plant in North America or in Europe, or even using CKD assembly (like Tesla is currently doing in the Netherlands) or a JV in China if sale volumes follow.

What models will achieve this goal? Tesla currently offers a sedan from segment F (Model S), but the carmaker expects to start the production late 2014 of an SUV from segment D (Model X) and intends to launch by the end of 2016 a sedan from segment D, which will cost less than 40 000 dollars.

 


With this objective of 500 000 vehicles produced annually by 2020, Tesla will become the leading manufacturer of electric vehicles. To recap, the Renault-Nissan group, the largest producer of electric vehicles, produced since 2010 more than 100 000 units and will have the capacity to produce 500 000 vehicles per year by 2015.

14-10-6  

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The 2013 top ten assembly plants in Europe

Below are the top ten plants in Europe in 2013:

1st: the Volkswagen plant of Wolfsburg (+1.9% compared to 2012) that increased slightly thanks to the Golf VII.

2nd: the AvtoVAZ plant of Togliatti (-14.4%) declined due to a decrease in the Russian market.

3rd: the Nissan plant of Sunderland (-1.7%) declined slightly (end of life cycle of the Qashqai).

4th: the Audi plant of Ingolstadt (+9.3%) benefited from the rise of the Audi A3.

5th: the Dacia plant in Pitesti (-10.3%) suffered from the change of generation Logan / Sandero.

6th: the PSA plant of Vigo (+36.0%) benefited from rise of the C4 Picasso, C-Elysée and 301.

7th: the Skoda plant of Mlada Boleslav (-1.6%) declined slightly in 2013.

8th: the Audi plant of Neckarsulm (-14.1%) declined because of a lack of success of the A6, A7, A8, Q5.

9th: the Mercedes plant of Sindelfingen (+3.1%) benefited from the new restyled S-Class and E-Class. 

10th: the Ford plant of Koln (+19.2%) benefited from the restyling of the Fiesta.


The production of these 10 plants accounted for more than 4.6 million vehicles (passenger cars + LCVs) in 2013, 25% of European production including Turkey, Ukraine and Russia.


14-10-5  

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The Peugeot 308 is the Car of the Year 2014

After the Volkswagen Golf in 2013, the new generation Peugeot 308 was elected Car of the Year 2014. One year to the next, two mass-produced cars from segment C have thus won the title, after the election of two electric cars (the Nissan Leaf in 2011 and the Chevrolet Volt in 2012).


In 2014, electric cars were not far from the title, since the BMW i3 is in second place and the Tesla Model S is third. The other models that were selected were : the Citroën C4 Picasso II, Mazda 3, Mercedes S Class and Skoda Octavia III, these models had fewer points. The 308 Next Generation is the fourth car of the brand to win the title after the 504 (1969), the 405 (1988) and the 307 (2002).


Inovev expects that 180 000 Peugeot 308 will be produced per year, while the manufacturer announced a production rate of 800 units per day (160 000 per year) it has now been increased to 1 000 units per day (200 000 per year) by the second quarter of 2014, thanks to the arrival of an estate version.


The first sale figures for 2014 in Europe are not yet known, but we can see that during the first two months of 2014, the Peugeot 308 has already taken the ninth place in the French market, ahead of its competitors the Renault Megane (10th) and the VW Golf (11th).


14-10-7  

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Changan is going to implant itself in Iran and Russia

The Chinese carmaker, Changan (which has gradually became the leading independent Chinese carmaker in front of Geely, Great Wall, BYD and Chery) plans to assemble vehicles in Iran and Russia, from small collections imported from China (CKD).


1/ Iran was chosen by Changan following the announcement of the Iranian authorities to accommodate new manufacturers on their territory. Changan plans to produce 50 000 vehicles per year in Iran. To achieve this goal, Changan has signed an agreement with the Iranian assembler SAIPA (SociétéAnonymeIranienne de Production Automobile, the second largest carmaker in Iran) on the vehicle assembly plant of the Iranian carmaker. SAIPA is the second Iranian manufacturer behind Iran Khodro. It has also worked for the Renault and Kia brands. The first models to be assembled by Changan CKD will be a segment C sedan, the Eado and a segment C SUV, the CS35.


2/ Russia was chosen because of the success of Chinese brands on this market (more than 100 000 sales in 2013), also, this market could become the first European market by 2017-2018. Changan plans to produce 100 000 vehicles per year in Russia. Changan has not yet chosen its site of implantation but this plant in Russia could emerge in two years.


Several Chinese manufacturers are already operating in Russia, such as Lifan, Geely, Great Wall and Haima.


14-10-3  

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