Towards a recovery of the European BEV market?
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Towards a recovery of the European BEV market?
- Is the European BEV automotive market recovering? While the European market (31 countries) for battery electric vehicles (BEV) grew by 3.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023, then by 1.6% in the first half of 2024 compared to first half of 2023, it fell by 2.6% over the entire first 9 months of 2024 compared to the first 9 months of 2023. But in September 2024, it increases by 13.9%.
- This means that the evolution of BEV sales over the first 9 months of 2024 is generally negative compared to 2023, the BEV market share having fallen to 14.7% in Europe at the end of September 2024 compared to 15.2 % at the end of September 2023. But the increase observed in September suggests a recovery over the next three months of the year.
- We are therefore not witnessing a collapse in BEV sales in Europe, but a stagnation or even a decline in sales in certain countries such as Germany (-28.6%), Sweden (-18.9%), Finland (-31.4%) or Switzerland (-9.5%). The new battery electric models at a lower prices than today may help to support the European electric market.
- As for other engines, gasoline continues to lose ground in Europe (34% of the market against 37% in 2023 and 38% in 2022), like diesel (11% of the market against 12% in 2023 and 15 % in 2022). The plug-in hybrid remains stable at 7% of the market. The full- hybrid (or FHEV) continues its spectacular growth (14% of the market compared to 10% in 2023 and 8% in 2022). The micro-hybrid (MHEV) is growing at 17% of the market and remains the second technology in terms of engine behind gasoline engines which are twice as large in terms of market share.
Which carmakers are making progress in Europe over 9 months 2024?
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Which carmakers are making progress in Europe over 9 months 2024?
- On an European passenger cars market (31 countries) increasing by 1% over the first 9 months of 2024, which carmakers saw their sales increase sharply and those who saw their sales decline sharply?
- Already in terms of volumes, the Volkswagen group with its eight brands remains the European market leader, occupying 26% market share in 2024 (stable compared to 2023), ahead of the Stellantis group with its eleven brands (Chrysler, Dodge and Ram are not officially marketed in Europe), which occupies 16% market share in 2024 (compared to 17% in 2023).
- Behind, the Renault group (9.6% market share, stable) is ahead of the Hyundai group (8.4% market share compared to 8.8% in 2023), the Toyota group (7.7% market share compared to 6.9% in 2023), the BMW group (6.9% market share, stable) and the Mercedes group (5.2% market share, stable).
- The carmakers making the higgest progress in 2024 are Volvo (+37%), thanks to the success of the compact EX30 electric model imported from China and Honda (+35%) thanks to the simultaneous launch of three compact SUVs. Suzuki (+16.7%) thanks to its inexpensive models, Nissan (+14.4%) thanks to the strong increase in sales of Mitsubishi, Toyota (+12.3%) thanks to the success of its Yaris and Yaris Cross hybrids. We note the good performance of SAIC-MG (+10.4%) despite the various obstacles placed in front of Chinese carmakers.
- The carmakers which will decline the most in 2024 are Ford (-17.9%), which is voluntarily abandoning the European market, Tesla (-8.7%) whose models are less attractive to the public and Stellantis (-6%) which is going through a difficult and transitional period between end of life of old models and gradual start-up of new models.
The share of electrification by carmakers in Europe in 2024
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The share of electrification by carmakers in Europe in 2024
- Out of a total of BEVs which represent 14.7% of the European passenger car market over the first nine months of 2024, the Volkswagen group has registered 275,161 BEVs and remains the leader in BEV sales in Europe ahead of Tesla (235,588 units). Followed by the Stellantis group (160,148 units), the BMW group (128,717 units), the Geely group (121,182 units), the Hyundai-Kia group (99,225 units), the Mercedes group (98,076 units), the Renault (68,481 units) and the SAIC group (60,684 units). Behind, very detached, follow the Toyota groups (24,434 units), Nissan (21,979 units) and Ford (18,414 units).
- What is the share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) among each of the major automobile groups in 2024 in Europe? Among these large automobile groups, Tesla is obviously the carmaker which records the largest share of BEV in its sales with 100% ahead of Geely (42%) and SAIC (35%) but it is good to specify that the other Chinese carmakers which still recording very low sales in Europe, are mostly close to 100% BEV in their sales, like Tesla.
- Behind, the European Premium carmakers BMW and Mercedes record comparable BEV shares in their sales in Europe, 20% and 19% respectively. They are well ahead of the Hyundai-Kia (13.3%), Volkswagen (11.7%) and Stellantis (10.7%) groups. Behind, very detached, follow the groups Nissan (8.2%), Renault (7.8%), Ford (5.5%) and Toyota (3.9%).
- The carmakers which offer the most BEVs in Europe in their lineup are the Stellantis groups (30 different models), Volkswagen (15), Mercedes (15), Geely (12), BMW (10), Hyundai-Kia (10) and SAIC ( 10).
The European passenger car market grows by 1% over 9 months 2024
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The European passenger car market grows by 1% over 9 months 2024
- The European automobile market for passenger cars (31 countries) fell by 4.2% in September 2024 compared to September 2023, to 1,118,083 units against 1,167,637, after having fallen by 16.5% in August 2024 and stagnated at +0.4% in July 2024. As a result, the market only increases by 1% over the first 9 months of 2024, to 9,779,605 units compared to 9,685,850 over the first 9 months of 2023, the first half of 2024 having been largely positive (+4.4%).
- The European countries which see their sales increase in 2024 (over 9 months) are Poland (+13.8%), Bulgaria (+18.4%), Croatia (+12%), Hungary (+7.3%), Romania (+4.3%), the United Kingdom (+4.3%), the Czech Republic (+2.6%), Slovenia (+6.8%), Spain (+4.7%) and Cyprus (+6.2%). Thus, we observe that the countries which have seen their sales increase are overwhelmingly those located in Eastern Europe (apart from Spain), that is to say those which buy very few electric vehicles (including Spain). One exception: the United Kingdom, which is one of the largest buyers of BEVs and whose overall market is growing by 4.3%.
- The European countries which are seeing their sales decline sharply in 2024 (over 9 months) are Finland (-19.1%), Sweden (-7.9%) and Norway (-3.9%) which are among the countries with the greatest demand for electric vehicles. Note that Germany saw its sales fall by 1% and France by 1.8%, these countries being among the largest buyers of electric vehicles in volume.
- It seems that countries purchasing electric vehicles are affected by the drop in demand for BEVs and that those which purchase very few BEVs are on the opposing very little affected.
The CAMI factory in Canada is now dedicated to the production of battery electric LCVs
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The CAMI factory in Canada is now dedicated to the production of battery electric LCVs
- The Canadian CAMI (Canadian Automotive Manufacturing Inc.) plant located in Ingersoll, Ontario, belonged between 1989 (date of its creation) and 2009 in equal shares (50-50) to the GM group and the Japanese Suzuki for the production of the compact SUVs (Tracker) and Swift small sedans (Cultus) under the Chevrolet, Geo and Suzuki brands for North American markets. This factory was then fully bought by the GM group in 2010 to produce Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain SUVs, Suzuki having decided to abandon the North American markets not very fond of small vehicles, while Suzuki being a specialist of producing small cars (A and B segments). Production of the GMC Terrain ended in 2017 and of the Chevrolet Equinox in 2022 to focus on the exclusive production of new battery electric models.
- In December 2022, the factory began the assembly the battery electric BrightDrop Zevo 600 delivery vans, unveiled in January 2021, and then the BrightDrop Zevo 400. The first customer of these vehicles having been the company FEDEX. In 2024, the BrightDrop brand was discontinued and these vehicles were renamed Chevrolet BrightDrop, integrating the Chevrolet lineup. These vehicles have a range of more than 400 km thanks to 121 kWh or 173 kWh batteries.
- In April 2022, a Zevo 600 set the world record for the longest distance traveled by an electric pickup truck on a single charge, connecting New York to Washington, representing a distance of approximately 420 km.
- Over the first 9 months of 2024, 12,585 Chevrolet BrightDrop units were produced, compared to 5,575 over the first 9 months of 2023.
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