The Chinese market fell 14% in the first half of 2019
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The Chinese market fell 14% in the first half of 2019
- The Chinese passenger car market (which is 82% of total Chinese registrations), fell by 14% in the first six months of 2019, compared to the first six months of 2018. The volume of passenger car registrations fell to 10.12 million units from 11.78 million the previous year, a loss of 1.66 million units over six months. At this rate, the Chinese market could lose more than 3 million units over the year as a whole, but it seems that a slight recovery will start in the second half of 2019 which could lead to a much lower loss in terms of vehicle numbers.
- However, this 14% drop in the PC market follows year 2018, with an already 4% drop in the PC market, the first drop in the Chinese market in more than 20 years.
- Among the most affected automakers are the American OEMs GM (-23.6%) and Ford (-57.9%), perhaps a consequence of the trade war that is taking place between China and the United States. Chinese manufacturers BAIC (-32.3%), Dongfeng (-31.6%), GAC (-30.3%), Changan (-22.7%) also posted significantly lower results. Even Geely, which had made great progress in recent years, is down by 12.3%. The PSA group (-59.5%) is no longer even in the Top 20. Only Honda (+14.8%), Toyota (+12.4%), Mercedes (+11.7%) and BMW (+25.9%) made progress. It should be noted that SUVs now represent 42% of PC sales in China.
- The LCV market held up better, with a decline of 3.9% over the first six months of 2019, and a volume of 2.19 million units compared with 2.28 million the previous year.
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The Indian market fell 8.8% in the first half of 2019
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The Indian market fell 8.8% in the first half of 2019
- The Indian automotive market is one of the most promising in terms of sales, since India's motorization rate is still very low compared to the population, one of the densest in the world. From 3.2 million units in 2014, the Indian market had grown to 4.4 million in 2018. Unfortunately, the Indian market turned red in November 2018 and the decline worsened in April 2019. In the first half of 2019, the Indian market fell by 8.8%.
- At this rate, the Indian market could fall to 4 million units (VP+VU) in 2019. This decline is in line with the general decline in registrations worldwide (-7.1% in the first half of 2019), but the numbers show that the Indian market declined more than the world market over the period.
- Among the most affected automakers is the leading Suzuki, which lost 100,000 sales in the first six months of 2019, going from 900,000 to 800,000 sales over this period. Its market share remains very high, but nevertheless slides from 40% in 2018 to 39% in 2019. Its competitors Tata Motors (15%) and Hyundai-Kia (12%) maintain their market share. Mahindra gains almost one point of market share (12%). The other manufacturers are far behind and remain stable.
- It should be noted that India is one of the major markets that buys the least SUVs, since these models make up only 19% of the Indian market, half of the percentage observed in the other major markets. The sedan, and even the small sedan (segments A and B), account for 75% of registrations, which is atypical in the global market.
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Volkswagen chooses Turkey for its future European plant
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Volkswagen chooses Turkey for its future European plant
- The Volkswagen Group is one of the few automakers to build a new assembly plant in Europe (with BMW in Hungary and Jaguar Land Rover in Slovakia), while the European market is now in decline and the short and medium-term prospects are not very good.
- Indeed, the leading German manufacturer quickly launched many SUVs under the Volkswagen, Audi, Seat and Skoda brands, and these models, far from cannibalizing the group's passenger car ranges, rather bit into the competition, which is why VW needs to build a new factory.
- Initially, the VW group hesitated between Romania and Bulgaria, then Serbia was mentioned, but Turkey was finally chosen.
- Turkey is already well represented in terms of automotive production, with the FCA, Renault, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai-Kia and Honda groups located there (the latter will leave Turkey in 2021). Volkswagen has been absent until now.
- The German manufacturer's site, which will be built near Izmir, will start around 2022/2023 with a production capacity of 350,000 vehicles per year, which will then be one of the largest factories in Turkey.
- The models initially manufactured on this site will be the Skoda Karoq and Seat Ateca, but other models will be added later, perhaps the VW T-Cross and Skoda Kamiq.
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Carmakers less and less present in European Motor Shows
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Carmakers less and less present in European Motor Shows
- Inovev has listed the presence of the 35 major European car brands, at the 3 major European trade fairs: Paris 2018, Geneva 2019 and Frankfurt 2019. The Geneva Motor Show takes place every year, while the Paris and Frankfurt Motor Shows take place alternately, every other year.
- The 2019 Geneva Motor Show remains the one that hosts the most manufacturers, since it has shown 31 brands out of 35, while Paris 2018 received only 22 and Frankfurt 2019 will receive only 16.
- The brands present at the three shows are Audi, BMW, Honda, Mercedes, Porsche, Seat, Skoda, Smart, i. e. mainly the German Premium brands. The only premium brand not present at the three shows is Volvo (Geely Group). The other brands have been or are present at one or two trade fairs, mainly French, Italian, British, Korean and Japanese manufacturers. Volkswagen brand was not present at the Paris Motor Show in September 2018.
- Japanese brands are the most present at the Geneva Motor Show (9 brands) but much less in Frankfort (3 brands). German brands are just as present in Frankfurt as in Geneva (7 brands), while French brands prefer the Paris and Geneva show but are not present in Frankfurt.
- The trend is therefore towards a predominance of the Geneva show, which could eventually become the reference show in Europe, while the Frankfurt and Paris shows could become shows for national brands, at least if their formats remained unchanged. But this analysis has already been made by the automotive industry, and to cope with these changes, a new exhibition model is expected for future editions of motor shows, which will integrate the new mobility players more closely.
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The world market fell 7.1% in the first half of 2019
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The world market fell 7.1% in the first half of 2019
- The decline in vehicle registrations in the first half of 2019 reached 7.1% worldwide, compared to the first half of 2018, a level that had not been reached since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The decline in passenger car sales even reached 9%, while commercial vehicle sales remained stable over the period.
- China is the market that is driving global growth down with a 14% decrease in passenger car sales volume. There was also a decrease of 3.1% in Europe and 2.4% in the United States. These three markets account for nearly three-quarters of global registrations.
- Several automakers delivered their sales figures for the first half of 2019:
• The PSA group reports a 12.8% drop in sales over this period, which it attributes mainly to the cessation of deliveries in Iran and its difficulties in China (-59.5%).
• The Renault group reports a 6.7% decline in sales, mainly due to China (-23.7%), Argentina (-47.7%), India (-13.8%) and Turkey (-46.3%).
• The Volkswagen group reports a 2.8% drop in sales, mainly attributable to China, where it recorded a 3.9% drop in sales.
• Among the Premium cars, Mercedes reports a 4.7% drop in sales, Audi a 4.5% drop in sales, Jaguar Land Rover a 9.6% drop in sales, while BMW reports a 1.6% increase and Volvo a 7.3% increase.
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