The US market (PC + LCV) was stable in 2018 (+ 0.5%)
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The US market (PC + LCV) was stable in 2018 (+ 0.5%)
- The US car market (PV + LCV) was almost stable in 2018, with registrations showing a very modest increase of 0.5%, to 17.334 million units, compared with 17.243 million in 2017. Nevertheless, the US market remains on a high trend, since it is one of the four best results recorded since the year 2000. Inovev therefore expects a slight decline in the US market in 2019 (-2%), which should reduce registrations to 17 million of units (PC+LCV).
- The change in the physiognomy of the US market continued in 2018, with an increase in LCV sales (in the US, this category includes SUVs, MPVs and pick-ups) to the detriment of sedans.
- Last year, LCVs accounted for 69% of total registrations (compared to 65% in 2017), while sedans accounted for only 31% (compared to 35% in 2017), the lowest figure ever recorded on this market.
- And the situation should not change in future, as US automakers have all said that they will remove many of their sedans in 2019 and 2020 and they will focus their efforts on the launch of SUVs and pickups.
- Although Japanese and Korean manufacturers will benefit in part from this situation, it is far from certain that the "fashion" of SUVs will fade in the US market in the coming years. In 2018, they account for 45% of the US market, nearly one in two (compared to 41% in 2017).
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続きを読む... The US market (PC + LCV) was stable in 2018 (+ 0.5%)
In 2018, the Chinese market (PC + LCV) suffered its first decline in 30 years
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In 2018, the Chinese market (PC + LCV) suffered its first decline in 30 years
- The Chinese car market has suffered its first decline in 30 years, since in 2018 it fell by 2.8% for all vehicles (PC + LCV), and even 4.1% for PC (which include SUVs and MPVs). The volume of registrations dropped to 28.08 million PC and LCV (including 23.7 million PC), but despite this underperformance, the Chinese car market remains by far the world's largest market ahead of the United States and Europe. The decline in the Chinese market materialized from the second half of 2018, when the fall in sales exceeded 10% for several months. Slowing global economic growth and trade tensions with the US are the main reasons.
- The Chinese government did not want to intervene to revive the market by lowering taxes, and it even recently indicated that it would not intervene in the future to revive the market by lowering taxes, these being definitively set at 10%. The Chinese government wants to let the market regulate naturally in order to become more robust. Under these conditions, we expect a stagnation of the Chinese market in the short term, without excluding the possibility that it could return to growth in future.
- The Chinese government has also passed a law banning the construction of new factories in areas already home to underutilized facilities. Today, China has a production capacity of 43 million vehicles a year, 15 million more than local sales. The Chinese government also wants to consolidate the Chinese auto industry by bringing together several local manufacturers who will be able to compete with the largest international groups.
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続きを読む... In 2018, the Chinese market (PC + LCV) suffered its first decline in 30 years
3-door sedans are gradually disappearing
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3-door sedans are gradually disappearing
- With strong growth in SUV sales around the world, sedan sales are falling sharply. The most endangered versions are the 3-door versions of sedans that are not only suffering the decline in overall sedan sales, but also a reduction in market share within the sedan segment, from an average of 15% to 10% over the past decade. These 3-door versions were mostly present in the A, B and C segments. Some sedans have gone from 3-door to 5-door versions, such as Lancia Ypsilon (2011), Ford Ka (2014) and Renault Twingo (2014). Other models have expanded their offering, adding 5-door versions to their 3-door versions, such as the Mini (2016) and DS3 (2019).
- Last but not least, many models originally offered in 3 and 5 doors have gradually discontinued their 3-door versions, such as Peugeot 308, Renault Megane, Opel Astra, Ford Focus, Mercedes A Class, Renault Clio, and more recently VW Polo, Seat Ibiza, Skoda Fabia, Audi A1.
- Next year, the new Peugeot 208 and Opel Corsa will only be available in 5-door versions, like the future Audi A3, Seat Leon, VW Golf and BMW 1 Series. This OEM strategy responds to the objectives of better rationality of product offering, as well as that of production cost saving, as it is expensive to develop a double sheet stamping system for a category of vehicles with eroding sales.
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Segmentation of plug-in electric and hybrid cars sold in China and Europe
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Segmentation of plug-in electric and hybrid cars sold in China and Europe
Inovev compared the segmentation of electric cars and plug-in hybrid cars sold in China with those sold in Europe.
- With regard to electric cars (BEV):
§ In China, sedans account for 70% of sales of 100% electric cars, while SUVs 24% and other body types 6%. Segment C accounts for 50% of electric car sales, segment A 34%, segment B 9% and other segments 7%. The electric car is very low-end and mid-range oriented.
§ In Europe, sedans account for 82% of sales of 100% electric cars, while SUVs 12% and other body types 6%. Segment B accounts for 41% of sales of electric cars, segment C 39%, segment F 15% and other segments 5%. Segment A electric cars are virtually absent in Europe.
- With regard to rechargeable hybrid cars (PHEV):
§ In China, sedans account for 51% of plug-in hybrid car sales, while SUVs account for 49%. C segment accounts for 63% of plug-in hybrid car sales and D segment 37%.
§ In Europe, sedans account for 52% of plug-in hybrid car sales, while SUVs account for 41%. The D segment makes up 37% of plug-in hybrid car sales, the C segment 31% and the E segment 21%.
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続きを読む... Segmentation of plug-in electric and hybrid cars sold in China and Europe
The rebirth of the US mid-range pickup market
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The rebirth of the US mid-range pickup market
- While the US market for large pickups (Ford F Series, Chevrolet Silverado, Dodge Ram, GMC Sierra) has remained robust, that of mid-range pickups suffered a real collapse of registrations between 2000 and 2009. It seems that the customers of this kind of vehicles have been shifting to bigger pickups but also to SUVs. In 2018, the mid-range pickup market totals just over 500,000 units (compared to 250,000 in 2014 and 600,000 in 2006), while the large pick-up market exceeds 2.3 million units (compared to 2 million in 2014 and 2.2 million in 2006).
- GM, Ford and FCA have removed their mid-range pickups in the early 2010s, while competing Japanese models (Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier) managed to maintain and even progress, winning some of the customers abandoned by GM, Ford and FCA. Since 2014, however, there has been a total shift in strategy by GM, Ford and FCA. GM has launched new mid-range pickups in 2014 (Chevrolet Colorado, GMC Canyon), Ford has just launched its new Ranger in 2018 and FCA its new Jeep Gladiator to be marketed from 2019. The mid-range pickup market seems attractive again and is growing rapidly (more than 500,000 sales in 2018, against 250,000 in 2014).
- Toyota and Nissan continue their momentum and even break sales records in 2018 (245 000 Tacoma sold in 2018 and 80 000 Frontier, against 200 000 and 75 000 in 2017) but GM has already recovered its 2005 levels this year (more than 150,000 units per year). The 2018 results of Ford and FCA will soon show whether they too have experienced the same comeback.
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